Belgian Pro LeagueRegenboogstadion, Waregem24°22 km/hUpdated
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Zulte WaregemPossession control
GenkPossession & high pressZulte Waregem – Genk · Belgian Pro League
Zulte Waregem- Anosike EmentaFxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
- Emran SogloLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
- Jeppe ErenbjergCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
Genk- Hyun-Gyu OhFxG 0.57 · xT 0.07
- Robin MirisolaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
- Zakaria El OuahdiRWBxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Zulte Waregem – Genk
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,0Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Genk47% probability@2.20PinnacleEV+3%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Zulte Waregem | X | 2 · Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.16 | 3.54 | EV+ 3% 2.20 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Zulte Waregem – Genk
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Five consecutive victories for Zulte Waregem tell a tale of momentum, but KRC Genk's unbeaten streak of five matches casts an imposing shadow. Despite Zulte's recent triumphs, the numbers tilt in favor of Genk. With the visiting side's expected goals sitting at 1.67 against Zulte's 1.28, the data hints at Genk's attacking prowess coming to the fore.
Zulte Waregem may enjoy dictating terms with possession control, but Genk’s blend of possession and high press has outscored them in expected goals per match, 1.6 to 1.3. These nuances promise a chess match, yet the high press of Genk could be the decisive factor, unsettling Zulte and breaking their rhythm. It's a clash of styles where Genk's tactical edge, supported by a stronger xG difference, suggests they might edge proceedings.
KRC Genk boast a lead in both points and expected points, underscoring their formidable campaign compared to Zulte Waregem's spirited run. And while head-to-head records offer one victory apiece since 2023, Genk's consistent edge in metrics hints their solitary defeat might have been an anomaly rather than the norm.
Expect a closely contested affair with Genk likely to scrape a narrow victory. The 1-2 scoreline carries a 9% likelihood, closely following the 12% for a 1-1 draw. With a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals, fireworks in front of goal aren’t out of the question, but the lean remains slightly under the 2.5 mark given these teams' profiles.
For those with a betting inclination, the most compelling angle lies in KRC Genk’s away win odds. With Pinnacle offering 2.2 on a Genk victory and the model’s 47% probability suggesting a 3% edge, the value at the bookies is clear. The numbers, as ever, do not lie.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHead-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Zulte Waregem come into this round on 5 straight wins.
- KRC Genk are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Zulte Waregem | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48 | 60 |
| xPoints | 45.9 | 56.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Zulte Waregem | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 336 | 456 |
| Passes against per match | 369 | 310 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.7 | 28.9 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Zulte Waregem | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| Other | Zulte Waregem | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Brent Gabriel (Zulte Waregem) | Tobias Okikiola Lawal (Genk) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 112 | 53 |
| Save % | 69% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Zulte Waregem vs Genk according to our model?
The model gives Genk a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zulte Waregem 27%, draw 26%, Genk 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.