Zulte Waregem vs Genk: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League9 August 2026Regenboogstadion, Waregem23°23 km/h

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Zulte WaregemPossession control

2–1

GenkPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Genk (47%)

1 · Zulte Waregem 27%X 26%47% Genk · 2

27%

26%

47%

Analysis: Zulte Waregem – Genk

Erik Lindberg · 7 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Five straight wins for Zulte Waregem, but does the streak withstand the scrutiny of a team like KRC Genk? Genk have not tasted defeat in their last five league matches and carry a model-backed 47% chance of winning this fixture. The numbers offer a story of balance and slight edges rather than runaway dominance. Genk’s possession and high press against Zulte Waregem’s possession control sets up a fascinating tactical duel in the Belgian heartland.

Zulte Waregem open with a formidable recent form, yet the model’s 1-1 as the most likely scoreline at 12% indicates that a draw is very much on the cards. Historically, the teams have had a negligible head-to-head, splitting the two games since 2023, offering little to no predictive weight over the more substantial form and expected goals metrics. The expected goals of 1.28 for Zulte Waregem and 1.67 for Genk suggest a close encounter, albeit with Genk slightly pulling ahead.

With 57% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to find the net, the lean is towards action rather than caution. However, Zulte Waregem’s possession control could slow the pace enough to make Genk work for their opportunities, potentially leading to a tight 1-2 victory for the visitors as the next most likely outcome at 9%. The weather isn’t a factor here, so the offensive stats remain untarnished by external elements.

KRC Genk, sitting on an xG margin of 0.3 over Zulte Waregem, have an edge bolstered by a 12-point league advantage and a similar gap in xPoints. The data suggest Zulte Waregem’s five-win run might stumble here. The sharpest betting angle targets the value on a Genk away win at odds of 2.21 with Pinnacle, offering a 3% edge according to the model's 47% win probability. In a clash of form against finesse, Genk's broader season metrics might just tip the scales.

Zulte Waregem

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #10xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Anosike EmentaFxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Emran SogloLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Jeppe ErenbjergCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.13

Genk

Form WDDWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #2xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

Hyun-Gyu OhFxG 0.57 · xT 0.07
Robin MirisolaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
Zakaria El OuahdiRWBxG 0.18 · xT 0.16

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% · Draw 26% · Genk 47%

Match prediction: Zulte Waregem – Genk

Predicted score matrix

Genk →

Zulte Waregem →

0–05.5%

0–18.4%

0–27.3%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.5%

1–06.4%

1–111.5%

1–29.3%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.3%

2–17.2%

2–26.0%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.8%

3–13.1%

3–22.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,28–1,67

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.15

Over 2,557%

@1.74

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Genk to win47%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Genk to win47%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Aaron Banind Bibout to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Aaron Banind Bibout to score34%
Serxho Ujka to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Genk47% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Zulte Waregem	X	2 · Genk
Pinnacle	3.33	3.60	EV+ 0% 2.15

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+5 %

32 %27 %

3.16 → 3.33

X+2 %

29 %24 %

3.54 → 3.60

2-2 %

46 %41 %

2.20 → 2.15

Over 2,5+1 %

58 %53 %

1.72 → 1.74

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Zulte Waregem 1Draw 0Genk 1

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

Key facts

Zulte Waregem come into this round on 5 straight wins.
KRC Genk are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Zulte Waregem

Genk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Zulte Waregem (53–53)

Genk (58–54)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Zulte Waregem

Genk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Zulte Waregem

Genk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Zulte Waregem	Genk
Points	48	60
xPoints	45.9	56.5
xG per match	1.3	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.16

Playing style	Zulte Waregem	Genk
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.46	0.61
xT per match	0.97	1.3
xTA per match	1	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.32
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.76
Passes per match	336	456
Passes against per match	369	310
Switches of play per match	26.7	28.9
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	Zulte Waregem	Genk
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.11
Corners per match	4.7	5.6
Corners against per match	5	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.59

Other	Zulte Waregem	Genk
Throw-in control	0.69	0.74

The goalkeepers	Brent Gabriel (Zulte Waregem)	Tobias Okikiola Lawal (Genk)
Saves	112	53
Save %	69%	65%
xG prevented	44%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Zulte Waregem

Fixtures, form & tips

Genk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Zulte Waregem vs Genk according to our model?

The model gives Genk a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zulte Waregem 27%, draw 26%, Genk 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.