01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Royal Charleroi to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Belgian Pro LeagueStade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi23°0,1 mm16 km/h
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Royal CharleroiPossession control3–1
OH LeuvenPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Royal Charleroi (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · OH Leuven @ 4.68 (+11 %)
Royal Charleroi vs OH Leuven · Belgian Pro League
1 · Royal Charleroi 47%X 29%24% OH Leuven · 2
47%
29%
24%
Analysis: Royal Charleroi – OH Leuven
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
RSC Charleroi stands tall as the likely victor with a 47% chance according to the model, but the numbers paint a nuanced picture. A 51-point haul against Oud-Heverlee Leuven's 40 suggests a favorable season for Charleroi, though the xPoints tell a subtly different tale, giving Oud-Heverlee Leuven a slight edge at 56.2 to Charleroi's 55.6. The expected goals metric, however, tilts back towards Charleroi — 1.63 against Leuven's 0.98 — hinting at a potentially decisive edge for the home side.
RSC Charleroi, with their possession-control style, might find themselves embroiled in a midfield battle against an Oud-Heverlee Leuven team mirroring that very approach. The most common projected scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, both sit at 12%, suggesting tight margins. The head-to-head record since 2023 reveals a balanced rivalry with a small sample size: both teams have managed two wins each out of eight encounters, while draws have been prevalent.
Oud-Heverlee Leuven's chance of causing an upset sits at 24%, a figure perhaps inflated by their positive xPoints. Still, for those keen on betting angles, there's value to be found at odds of 4.47 with Pinnacle for a Leuven win, and notably, a draw holds a 9% edge at odds of 3.71. These figures point to potential profitability for the cautious bettor willing to back the less predictable outcomes.
Expect a tense match, where both teams' possession-based strategies could lead to periods of stalemate. The model leans towards a Charleroi win, but the over/under 2.5 goals market is finely poised at 48%, suggesting a low-scoring affair is just as likely. My crystal ball sees RSC Charleroi squeezing out a 1-0 victory, but the draw provides a juicy angle for those with a taste for value-driven punts.
Royal CharleroiForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #8xP/match #9Points #9
Key players
- Aurélien ScheidlerFxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
- Parfait GuiagonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.17
- Patrick PflückeRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
OH LeuvenForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #8Points #14
Key players
- Sory KabaFxG 0.32 · xT 0.01
- Mathieu MaertensRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.11
- Youssef MazizCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Royal Charleroi 47% · Draw 29% · OH Leuven 24%
Match prediction: Royal Charleroi – OH Leuven
Predicted score matrix
OH Leuven →
Royal Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–16.9%
0–23.5%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–011.7%
1–112.1%
1–25.8%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.6%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.3%
3–15.2%
3–22.5%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.1%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,63–0,98
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.87
Over 2,548%
@1.99
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Royal Charleroi to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Aurélien Scheidler to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Aurélien Scheidler to score31%
- Roggerio Nyakossi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · OH Leuven24% probability@4.68PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.60PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Royal Charleroi | X | 2 · OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | EV+ 6% 3.60 | EV+ 11% 4.68 |
Odds updated 9 Aug, 08:09
Odds movement
1+2 %
56 %51 %
1.77 → 1.81
X-2 %
29 %24 %
3.67 → 3.60
2+4 %
23 %18 %
4.51 → 4.68
Over 2,5-2 %
50 %45 %
2.03 → 1.99
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesRoyal Charleroi 2Draw 3OH Leuven 3
Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Royal Charleroi
OH Leuven
Royal Charleroi (50–50)
OH Leuven (41–60)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Royal Charleroi
OH Leuven
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Royal Charleroi
OH Leuven
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Royal Charleroi | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51 | 40 |
| xPoints | 55.6 | 56.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Royal Charleroi | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.96 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 287 |
| Passes against per match | 349 | 354 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.1 | 24 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Royal Charleroi | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| Other | Royal Charleroi | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Mohamed Koné (Royal Charleroi) | Tobe Leysen (OH Leuven) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 54 | 110 |
| Save % | 76% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Royal Charleroi vs OH Leuven according to our model?
The model gives Royal Charleroi a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Royal Charleroi 47%, draw 29%, OH Leuven 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.