Belgian Pro LeagueJan Breydel Stadion, Brugge19°13 km/hUpdated
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Club BruggePossession & high press
KortrijkPossession controlClub Brugge – Kortrijk · Belgian Pro League
Club Brugge- Christos TzolisLWxG 0.3 · xT 0.35
- Nicolò TresoldiFxG 0.63 · xT 0.06
- Hans VanakenCMxG 0.2 · xT 0.17
Kortrijk- Aurélien ScheidlerFxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
- Parfait GuiagonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.17
- Patrick PflückeRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Club Brugge – Kortrijk
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.2-09%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,3Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Kortrijk14% probability@10.24PinnacleEV+38%
- X · Draw16% probability@6.46PinnacleEV+2%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Club Brugge | X | 2 · Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | EV+ 2% 6.46 | EV+ 38% 10.24 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Club Brugge – Kortrijk
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
Seventeen straight matches with a goal to their name makes Club Brugge KV an outfit you can't easily dismiss, especially on home turf where they boast a 67% winning rate — a fortress by any stretch. This weekend, they square off against KV Kortrijk, a side that, while dogged in possession, seems outgunned if we're judging by recent form and expected goals data. With Club Brugge KV averaging 2.27 expected goals per match to KV Kortrijk's 1.06, the home side appears primed to continue its scoring spree.
Club Brugge KV hasn't tasted defeat in their last seven league encounters, and their recent head-to-head against KV Kortrijk since 2023 shows a balanced ledger — one win, two draws, and one loss. While this might seem tighter than expected, it’s hard to overlook the attacking arsenal at Club Brugge KV's disposal. Their high press and possession play should stretch KV Kortrijk thin, likely creating ample opportunities to add to their 17-game scoring run.
The numbers back a Club Brugge KV victory, with a model probability of 71% and the most likely scorelines leaning towards a 2-1 or 2-0 home triumph. There's a 65% chance we'll see over 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game ripe for goals. The inclination towards both teams scoring at 59% reflects KV Kortrijk's ability to find the net despite their underdog status. However, their defense might find it difficult to resist the relentless pressure from a side that averages 2.0 xG per match.
Now, while the smart money might naturally tilt towards backing a Club Brugge KV victory, there's intriguing value in an audacious punt. Pinnacle offers KV Kortrijk at 10.24 odds, representing a 38% edge based on model predictions. For those willing to flirt with risk, the draw at 6.46 odds also holds a sliver of value with a 2% edge. For the bold, these odds offer a tempting side bet in what looks like a Club Brugge KV win.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHead-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Club Brugge KV are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Club Brugge KV have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.
- Club Brugge KV win 67% of their home matches all-time (60 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Club Brugge | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 88 | 51 |
| xPoints | 57.9 | 55.6 |
| xG per match | 2 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Club Brugge | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 484 | 332 |
| Passes against per match | 291 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.8 | 29.1 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Club Brugge | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| Other | Club Brugge | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Nordin Jackers (Club Brugge) | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 54 | – |
| Save % | 72% | – |
| xG prevented | 41% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Club Brugge vs Kortrijk according to our model?
The model gives Club Brugge a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Club Brugge 71%, draw 16%, Kortrijk 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.