Royal Antwerp vs Beveren: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League9 August 2026Bosuilstadion, Antwerpen24°20 km/h

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Royal AntwerpPossession control

2–1

Beveren

The model's lean: 2 · Beveren (53%)

1 · Royal Antwerp 23%X 24%53% Beveren · 2

23%

24%

53%

Analysis: Royal Antwerp – Beveren

Marcus Johansson · 7 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Fifty-three percent. That's the cold, hard probability that SK Beveren marches into Royal Antwerp FC's territory and walks away with all three points. Numbers like these don't lie, and they paint a clear picture of where this battle is likely heading. It's not just the winning probability that's stacked against Royal Antwerp FC; their expected goals tally sits at a modest 0.96 compared to SK Beveren's more robust 1.67. This isn't merely a statistical quirk—this is form meeting function in the stark reality of probability.

Royal Antwerp FC has its work cut out for it. Their recent performances haven't inspired confidence, and the model sees them as the underdogs on their home turf. While a 1-1 draw or a 0-1 defeat appears to be the most likely outcome at 12% each, it's the 0-2 scoreline that looms large as a real possibility at 10%. In a game where the expected goals barely nudge over 2.5 and the odds of both teams finding the back of the net sit at an even 50%, it becomes clear that Royal Antwerp must defy more than just a statistical model to snatch victory.

SK Beveren's dominance isn't merely a forecast—it's an opportunity. With Pinnacle offering odds of 4.64 on an away win, and the model rating it at a worthily 53%, there's a striking 148% edge to be had. This presents a tantalizing prospect for those who like to put their money where the model's mouth is.

However, if you're chasing goals rather than results, the over 2.5 market edges slightly into value territory with odds of 2.11 and a 49% likelihood. While the edges are slimmer here—3%—the potential for an open game shouldn’t be discounted entirely. But the real sharp angle? SK Beveren at those juicy odds. When the numbers lean this hard, you'd be remiss not to consider the weight of their prediction.

Royal Antwerp

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #12xGA #7xT #12xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Anthony ValenciaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.18
Gyrano KerkFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Daam FoulonLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

Beveren

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Royal Antwerp 23% · Draw 24% · Beveren 53%

Match prediction: Royal Antwerp – Beveren

Predicted score matrix

Beveren →

Royal Antwerp →

0–07.5%

0–111.7%

0–210.0%

0–35.6%

0–4+3.4%

1–06.6%

1–111.9%

1–29.7%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.3%

2–03.3%

2–15.5%

2–24.6%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.1%

3–11.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-112%
3.0-210%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,96–1,67

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.75

Over 2,549%

@2.13EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Beveren to win53%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Beveren to win53%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Lennart Mertens to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Lennart Mertens to score29%
Sieben Dewaele to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Beveren53% probability@4.24PinnacleEV+126%reference odds
Over 2.549% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Royal Antwerp	X	2 · Beveren
Pinnacle	1.96	3.34	EV+ 126% 4.24

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 3.72 to 3.34 (−10%).

1+13 %

57 %47 %

1.74 → 1.96

X-10 %

32 %22 %

3.72 → 3.34

2-9 %

26 %16 %

4.68 → 4.24

Over 2,50 %

51 %41 %

2.12 → 2.13

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Royal Antwerp

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Royal Antwerp (43–48)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Royal Antwerp

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Royal Antwerp

The goalkeepers	Taishi Brandon Nozawa (Royal Antwerp)	Beveren
Saves	97	–
Save %	74%	–
xG prevented	52%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Royal Antwerp

Fixtures, form & tips

Beveren

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Royal Antwerp vs Beveren according to our model?

The model gives Beveren a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Royal Antwerp 23%, draw 24%, Beveren 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.