Royal Antwerp vs Beveren: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League9 August 2026Bosuilstadion, Antwerpen25°16 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

Läs på svenska

Royal AntwerpPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Beveren (53%)

BeverenPossession control

1 · Royal Antwerp 23%X 24%53% Beveren · 2

23%

24%

53%

Royal Antwerp

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #12xGA #7xT #12xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Anthony ValenciaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.18
Gyrano KerkFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Daam FoulonLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

Beveren

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #8Points #14

Key players

Sory KabaFxG 0.32 · xT 0.01
Mathieu MaertensRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.11
Youssef MazizCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Royal Antwerp – Beveren

Predicted score matrix

Beveren →

Royal Antwerp →

0–07.5%

0–111.7%

0–210.0%

0–35.6%

0–4+3.4%

1–06.6%

1–111.9%

1–29.7%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.3%

2–03.3%

2–15.5%

2–24.6%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.1%

3–11.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-112%
3.0-210%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,96–1,67

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.72

Over 2,549%

@2.12EV+4%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Beveren53% probability@4.68PinnacleEV+150%
Over 2.549% probability@2.12PinnacleEV+4%

Bookmaker	1 · Royal Antwerp	X	2 · Beveren
Pinnacle	1.74	3.72	EV+ 150% 4.68

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Royal Antwerp – Beveren

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Fifty-three percent. That's the surprising probability model favoring SK Beveren in their clash against Royal Antwerp FC, despite the home side's eight-point lead in the standings. This isn't just a casual underdog whisper; the math screams it. Beveren's edge in expected points and their xG per match suggest they're more than capable of turning the tables on Antwerp's home ground. The model's lean towards Beveren, combined with a most likely scoreline favoring an away victory, paints a compelling picture for those willing to ride the wave of probabilistic insight.

SK Beveren, with their possession-based style, shares a tactical philosophy with Royal Antwerp FC, yet they seem to extract more value from their gameplay. Their xPoints of 56.2 shadow Antwerp's 51.3, a nod to efficiency and effectiveness. With an expected goals tally of 1.67 against Antwerp's 0.96, Beveren appears primed to capitalize on any defensive lapses from the home side. However, Antwerp's defensive edge, with a slightly lower xGA, can't be dismissed entirely, suggesting a potentially gritty contest.

Royal Antwerp FC might enjoy a points advantage in the league table, yet numbers suggest that the true battleground will be their ability to suppress Beveren's xG superiority. Both teams will likely vie to control the game, but the real question is who can convert possession into precision. The model hints at a probable draw at 1-1, but there's an enticing narrative being spun for Beveren, possibly edging it 1-0 or 2-0 if they can translate their statistical advantage into reality.

And here's where the smart money lies: with Pinnacle offering odds of 4.68 on a Beveren win, there's a robust 150% value edge based on the model's 53% favorability for the visitors. For those eyeing goal markets, the over 2.5 at odds of 2.12 offers a modest 4% edge. But make no mistake, the sharpest angle is backing Beveren to topple the odds and deliver on their statistical promise.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Royal Antwerp

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Royal Antwerp (43–48)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Royal Antwerp

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Royal Antwerp

The teams in numbers

Performance	Royal Antwerp	Beveren
Points	48	40
xPoints	51.3	56.2
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.21

Playing style	Royal Antwerp	Beveren
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.4
xT per match	0.92	0.96
xTA per match	1	1
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.31
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	14	15
Pass completion %	0.75	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	318	287
Passes against per match	333	354
Switches of play per match	24	24
Long balls per match	31	34

Set pieces	Royal Antwerp	Beveren
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.13
Corners per match	4.6	4.8
Corners against per match	4.7	6.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.58

Other	Royal Antwerp	Beveren
Throw-in control	0.67	0.64

The goalkeepers	Taishi Brandon Nozawa (Royal Antwerp)	Beveren
Saves	97	–
Save %	74%	–
xG prevented	52%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Royal Antwerp vs Beveren according to our model?

The model gives Beveren a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Royal Antwerp 23%, draw 24%, Beveren 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.