Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League8 August 2026Het Kuipje, Westerlo19°10 km/h

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WesterloPossession control

1–5

Union Saint-GilloisePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Union Saint-Gilloise (57%)

1 · Westerlo 20%X 23%57% Union Saint-Gilloise · 2

20%

23%

57%

Analysis: Westerlo – Union Saint-Gilloise

Anna Karlsson · 7 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's 57% chance of winning according to the model makes them the clear favorites against KVC Westerlo. The model favors a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline (11%), but with Royale Union Saint-Gilloise’s superior expected goals (xG) of 1.75 compared to Westerlo's 1.07, the away side's edge in both attacking and defensive metrics suggests they can tip the balance in their favor.

KVC Westerlo might have home advantage, but their 1.4 expected goals against (xGA) per match is troubling against a team like Royale Union Saint-Gilloise, who boast an xGA of just 0.92, showcasing a tighter defense. In their limited head-to-head encounters since 2023 (just 4 matches), Royale Union Saint-Gilloise has a slight edge with 2 wins. However, this small sample shouldn't overshadow the current form and metrics, which heavily favor the visitors.

KVC Westerlo's possession control style may not be enough to unnerve Royale Union Saint-Gilloise, who mirror their approach tactically but execute it with greater precision. With both clubs averaging above 1.5 xG per match, the inclination towards goals is evident. The over 2.5 goals market sitting at a 53% probability aligns with the expectations of an open game, despite the shared playing style leaning towards possession.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's commanding points tally of 86 to KVC Westerlo's 52 further underscores their dominance in the league. Betting against the grain can sometimes yield surprises, but in this case, the value lies in backing the visitors. Pinnacle offers an attractive 1.793 for a Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win, slightly above the model's 57% probability, making it a value bet (EV+).

In conclusion, anticipate a narrow victory for Royale Union Saint-Gilloise, with a 1-2 scoreline feeling like the right call. Despite the potential for both teams to find the net, the visitors should emerge victorious, continuing their strong form in the league.

Westerlo

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #7xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Ignacio Ferri JuliàFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
Tuur RommensLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Doğucan HaspolatCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07

Union Saint-Gilloise

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #4xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Anan KhalailiRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.23
Promise Oluwatobi Emmanuel AkinpeluFxG 0.66 · xT 0.01
Kevin José Rodríguez CortézFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04

Final score

1 – 5

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Westerlo 20% · Draw 23% · Union Saint-Gilloise 57%

Match prediction: Westerlo – Union Saint-Gilloise

Predicted score matrix

Union Saint-Gilloise →

Westerlo →

0–06.3%

0–110.1%

0–29.1%

0–35.3%

0–4+3.5%

1–06.1%

1–111.5%

1–29.8%

1–35.7%

1–4+3.7%

2–03.4%

2–16.0%

2–25.2%

2–33.0%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.2%

3–12.1%

3–21.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.0-110%
3.1-210%
4.0-29%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,07–1,75

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,547%

@2.04

Over 2,553%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Union Saint-Gilloise to win57%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Union Saint-Gilloise to win57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Mateo Biondic to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Mateo Biondic to score27%
Kevin Mac Allister to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Westerlo	X	2 · Union Saint-Gilloise
Pinnacle	4.71	3.79	1.76

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+6 %

24 %19 %

4.46 → 4.71

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.81 → 3.79

20 %

56 %51 %

1.75 → 1.76

Over 2,5+1 %

55 %50 %

1.79 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Westerlo 1Draw 1Union Saint-Gilloise 2

Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Westerlo

Union Saint-Gilloise

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Westerlo (50–57)

Union Saint-Gilloise (66–27)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Westerlo

Union Saint-Gilloise

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Westerlo

Union Saint-Gilloise

The teams in numbers

Performance	Westerlo	Union Saint-Gilloise
Points	52	86
xPoints	57.7	68
xG per match	1.5	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.11

Playing style	Westerlo	Union Saint-Gilloise
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.53	0.6
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	29	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.36
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	14	9
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.72
Passes per match	335	365
Passes against per match	343	328
Switches of play per match	21.9	30.2
Long balls per match	31	39

Set pieces	Westerlo	Union Saint-Gilloise
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.06
Corners per match	5.1	5.8
Corners against per match	5.2	3.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.63

Other	Westerlo	Union Saint-Gilloise
Throw-in control	0.65	0.69

The goalkeepers	Andreas Jungdal (Westerlo)	Kjell Scherpen (Union Saint-Gilloise)
Saves	114	60
Save %	68%	75%
xG prevented	53%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Westerlo

Fixtures, form & tips

Union Saint-Gilloise

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise according to our model?

The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Westerlo 20%, draw 23%, Union Saint-Gilloise 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.