Belgian Pro LeagueHet Kuipje, Westerlo22°9 km/hUpdated
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WesterloPossession control
Union Saint-GilloisePossession controlWesterlo – Union Saint-Gilloise · Belgian Pro League
Westerlo- Ignacio Ferri JuliàFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
- Tuur RommensLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Doğucan HaspolatCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Union Saint-Gilloise- Anan KhalailiRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.23
- Promise Oluwatobi Emmanuel AkinpeluFxG 0.66 · xT 0.01
- Kevin José Rodríguez CortézFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Westerlo – Union Saint-Gilloise
Predicted score matrix
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-06%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,8Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Westerlo | X | 2 · Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.46 | 3.81 | 1.75 |
Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03
Analysis: Westerlo – Union Saint-Gilloise
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Fifty-seven percent—those are the model probabilities favouring Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to walk away with three points in this Belgian Pro League clash. It's hard to argue with the numbers, especially when you dig deeper into the layers of this matchup. Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not only boasts a significant points cushion over KVC Westerlo, 86 to 52, but also demonstrates superiority in expected points and goals against. This is a team that knows how to convert possession control into tangible results, and against a squad like KVC Westerlo, who mirror their style but not their effectiveness, it's a potent recipe for success.
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise might not have completely dominated the head-to-head since 2023, with a mix of wins, losses, and draws, but their recent form and statistical edge suggest a tilt in their favour. Their expected goals of 1.75 compared to KVC Westerlo's 1.07 paints a picture of a team more likely to find the back of the net. It's no surprise then that the most likely scorelines are tight affairs, with a 1-1 draw at 11% and narrow victories for the away side at 10% each for 0-1 and 1-2.
KVC Westerlo's strategy revolves around controlling possession, yet their ability to translate this into goals lags behind. Their xG per match of 1.5 is respectable, but it doesn't quite match Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's 1.7. Moreover, their xGA per match of 1.4 stands in stark contrast to their opponent's 0.92, suggesting vulnerabilities in the back that could be exploited.
As for over/under 2.5 goals, the odds slightly favour the over at 53%, and with both teams likely to find the net—55% on both teams to score—the stage is set for a lively encounter. Yet, the sharpest angle might lie with Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's win probability. Bet365 offers a tempting 1.90 on an away win, presenting decent value given the statistical backing and the form book. Although not a guarantee, it's a wager that leans heavily on logic, and in this case, logic sides with Royale Union Saint-Gilloise.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHead-to-head based on Belgian Pro League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Westerlo | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52 | 86 |
| xPoints | 57.7 | 68 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Westerlo | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.74 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 335 | 365 |
| Passes against per match | 343 | 328 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.9 | 30.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Westerlo | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| Other | Westerlo | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Jungdal (Westerlo) | Kjell Scherpen (Union Saint-Gilloise) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 114 | 60 |
| Save % | 68% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise according to our model?
The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Westerlo 20%, draw 23%, Union Saint-Gilloise 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.