Hradec Králové vs Teplice: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Czech First League19 September 202614°18 km/h

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Hradec KrálovéPossession control

TepliceCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Hradec Králové (50%)

1 · Hradec Králové 50%X 26%23% Teplice · 2

50%

26%

23%

Analysis: Hradec Králové – Teplice

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Fifty percent. That's the probability the model assigns to a Hradec Králové win, reflecting their solid foundation and possession control. Despite Teplice's slight points advantage in the league standings, Hradec's home strength, winning 55% of their matches historically, adds weight to their favor. Their defense, conceding just 0.96 xGA per match, can stifle Teplice's counter-attacking ambitions.

The small head-to-head sample since 2023, with Hradec leading 2-1-1, carries limited weight compared to current form and expected goals. Most likely scorelines point towards a tight match: 1-1 sits at 12%, with 1-0 close behind at 11%. While Hradec generates 1.58 expected goals, Teplice is not far behind with 1.07, hinting at a close contest where both teams finding the net is a real possibility.

With the over 2.5 goals probability at 49%, the market signals a balanced expectation between attack and defense. However, the model leans towards Hradec Králové as the value pick, with the 50% probability suggested by the model supporting this lean.

Hradec Králové

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #1xT #11xP/match #3Points #8

Key players

Mick Van BurenFxG 0.28 · xT 0.13
Tom SloncikLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.01
Vladimir DaridaCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17

Teplice

Form DLLWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Lukas MarecekCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Matej RadostaRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.13
John AutaLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Hradec Králové – Teplice

Predicted score matrix

Teplice →

Hradec Králové →

0–07.4%

0–17.2%

0–24.0%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.9%

1–112.3%

1–26.4%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.9%

2–19.4%

2–25.0%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.7%

3–15.0%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,58–1,07

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

–

Over 2,549%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hradec Králové to win50%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hradec Králové to win50%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Mick van Buren to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Mick van Buren to score30%
Lukáš Mareček to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Hradec Králové 2Draw 1Teplice 1

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 0,8)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Hradec Kralove win 55% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hradec Králové

Teplice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hradec Králové (6–6)

Teplice (15–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hradec Králové

Teplice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hradec Králové

Teplice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hradec Králové	Teplice
Points	11	13
xPoints	11	10.3
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	0.96	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.09

Playing style	Hradec Králové	Teplice
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.32
Field tilt	0.52	0.55
xT per match	0.93	1.1
xTA per match	0.86	1
Won balls, offensive half	20	18
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	360	312
Passes against per match	341	335
Switches of play per match	20.9	22.1
Long balls per match	31	29

Set pieces	Hradec Králové	Teplice
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	5.1	6.5
Corners against per match	5.7	4
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.79

Other	Hradec Králové	Teplice
Throw-in control	0.72	0.69

The goalkeepers	Adam Zadrazil (Hradec Králové)	Matous Trmal (Teplice)
Saves	26	21
Save %	81%	62%
xG prevented	62%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hradec Králové

Fixtures, form & tips

Teplice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hradec Králové vs Teplice according to our model?

The model gives Hradec Králové a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hradec Králové 50%, draw 26%, Teplice 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.