Jablonec vs Zlín: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Czech First League19 September 202611°1,5 mm22 km/h

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JablonecCounter-attacks & crosses

ZlínPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Jablonec (72%)

1 · Jablonec 72%X 18%10% Zlín · 2

72%

18%

Analysis: Jablonec – Zlín

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Two matches into their recent head-to-head record, Jablonec and Zlín have traded victories. While this small sample offers some intrigue, the real story lies in the current form and expected goals. Jablonec's 72% win probability is backed by both tangible results and underlying metrics that favor them heavily. In stark contrast, Zlín's seven-match losing streak underscores their struggles this season.

Delving into the numbers, Jablonec's expected goals (xG) of 2.28 dwarfs Zlín's 0.74, painting a picture of a likely dominant performance by the hosts. The home side's style of play, focusing on counterattacks and crosses, seems well-suited to exploit Zlín's vulnerability, highlighted by their 1.8 expected goals against (xGA) per match. This defensive frailty could see them overwhelmed by Jablonec's attacking prowess.

Although the over 2.5 goals probability stands at 58%, suggesting a potential for goals, the match may hinge on Jablonec's ability to capitalize on their chances while keeping Zlín at bay. Given the visitors' possession-based approach, they might struggle to turn control into opportunities against a more efficient Jablonec.

The clearest betting angle emerges from Jablonec's dominance in both form and expected goals. With a most likely scoreline of 2-0, there's value in backing the hosts to win to nil, especially given Zlín's scoring woes. For those interested in a sharper edge, look to Bet365, where Jablonec to win to nil is available at attractive odds of 2.50. With the hosts set to assert their superiority, this bet aligns perfectly with the numbers.

Jablonec

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Matej PolidarLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.27
Saidou Alioum MoubarakFxG 0.35 · xT 0.43
Martin CedidlaRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.12

Zlín

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #16xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Daniel ŠmigaFxG 0.20 · xT 0.19
Marian PisojaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Naphthalene Frank AppiahRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Jablonec – Zlín

Predicted score matrix

Zlín →

Jablonec →

0–05.2%

0–13.4%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.0%

1–18.5%

1–23.0%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.8%

2–19.4%

2–23.4%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.7%

3–17.1%

3–22.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.4%

4+–16.9%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-011%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,28–0,74

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jablonec to win72%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Jablonec to win72%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Vakhtang Tchanturishvili to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Vakhtang Tchanturishvili to score31%
Jakub Černín to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Jablonec 1Draw 0Zlín 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Czech First League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Zlin have lost 7 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jablonec

Zlín

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jablonec (10–6)

Zlín (6–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jablonec

Zlín

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jablonec

Zlín

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jablonec	Zlín
Points	13	0
xPoints	10.9	5.8
xG per match	1.6	0.85
xGA per match	1	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.24

Playing style	Jablonec	Zlín
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.52	0.38
xT per match	1.3	0.7
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	9
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.62
Passes per match	375	245
Passes against per match	293	321
Switches of play per match	35.1	26.7
Long balls per match	38	34

Set pieces	Jablonec	Zlín
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.05
Corners per match	4.9	3.7
Corners against per match	3.7	5.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.63

Other	Jablonec	Zlín
Throw-in control	0.77	0.66

The goalkeepers	Klemen Mihelak (Jablonec)	Stanislav Dostal (Zlín)
Saves	12	15
Save %	75%	52%
xG prevented	37%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jablonec

Fixtures, form & tips

Zlín

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jablonec vs Zlín according to our model?

The model gives Jablonec a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jablonec 72%, draw 18%, Zlín 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.