Brøndby vs SønderjyskE: Prediction & Odds (17 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga17 August 2026 19:00 CESTBrøndby Stadion, Brøndby18°16 km/h

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BrøndbyCounter-attacks & crosses

SønderjyskELow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Brøndby (56%)Best value by the model: 2 · SønderjyskE @ 6.90 (+34 %)

1 · Brøndby 56%X 25%19% SønderjyskE · 2

56%

25%

19%

Analysis: Brøndby – SønderjyskE

Sofia Andersson · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Sonderjyske's single point from five outings starkly contrasts with Brondby IF's more respectable seven. While Brondby have managed to collect points with greater frequency, their matches have been anything but straightforward, clawing their way through a mini-hurdle of a counter-attacking mindset. Nonetheless, there’s a counterpoint: the expected points tell a different story, slightly favoring Sonderjyske at 3.9 to Brondby’s 3.4, suggesting the underdogs have been punching above their weight in terms of performance metrics.

Brondby IF’s counter-attacking prowess should see them handle Sonderjyske’s low block and direct style better than most. The expected goals (xG) paint a picture of efficiency from Brondby with 1.81 compared to Sonderjyske's 1.02. It’s a clear nod to the home side’s attacking capabilities. However, the head-to-head record since 2022 — albeit a small sample — highlights a slight concern for Brondby, having only managed one win from four encounters. Yet, Sonderjyske's defensive resilience could be their trump card, considering both teams allow 1.4 xGA per match.

Brondby IF lean towards a 2-1 or 1-0 result, with both scorelines tied at 10% probability. This suggests a tight affair where the margins are fine. The model leans towards Brondby but doesn’t dismiss a draw or a narrow Sonderjyske win entirely. The over 2.5 goals market sits precariously at 54%, mirroring the 54% for both teams to score—suggestive of potential goals but not a guarantee.

Betting enthusiasts will zero in on Sonderjyske’s intriguing value proposition. The away win at odds of 6.9 with Betsson and Nordicbet, or 6.8 with Betsafe, offers a neat 32-34% edge according to the model. For those willing to flirt with the upset, that’s where the sharpest angle lies. This value, while not a sure bet, presents an enticing opportunity for the bold punter willing to back an underdog with the potential to defy the probability.

Brøndby

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #4xP/match #10Points #1

Key players

Marcus YounisRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.03
Max EjdumLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Filip BundgaardLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.29

SønderjyskE

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #6xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Sidi Mohamed Cherif HaidaraFxG 0.27 · xT -0.05
Sefer EminiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Ebube DuruLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Brøndby – SønderjyskE

Predicted score matrix

SønderjyskE →

Brøndby →

0–06.2%

0–15.7%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.4%

1–111.2%

1–25.5%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.9%

3–16.0%

3–23.0%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.0%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,81–1,02

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.38EV+4%

Over 2,554%

@1.61

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Brøndby to win56%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Brøndby to win56%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Max Isaac Ejdum to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Max Isaac Ejdum to score30%
Gustav Drest Wagner to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · SønderjyskE19% probability@6.90BetssonEV+34%
2 · SønderjyskE19% probability@6.90NordicbetEV+34%
2 · SønderjyskE19% probability@6.80BetsafeEV+32%

Bookmaker	1 · Brøndby	X	2 · SønderjyskE
Bet365	1.50	EV+ 2% 4.10	EV+ 7% 5.50
Betsafe	1.46	EV+ 9% 4.40	EV+ 32% 6.80
Betsson	1.47	EV+ 10% 4.45	EV+ 34% 6.90
Nordicbet	1.47	EV+ 10% 4.45	EV+ 34% 6.90
Pinnacle	1.42	EV+ 20% 4.83	EV+ 30% 6.70

Odds updated 12 Aug, 15:53

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Brøndby win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 1.53 to 1.42 (−7%).

1-7 %

67 %62 %

1.53 → 1.42

X+10 %

23 %18 %

4.41 → 4.83

2+20 %

18 %13 %

5.59 → 6.70

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Brøndby 1Draw 1SønderjyskE 2

Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brøndby

SønderjyskE

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brøndby (4–1)

SønderjyskE (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brøndby

SønderjyskE

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brøndby

SønderjyskE

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brøndby	SønderjyskE
Points	7	1
xPoints	3.4	3.9
xG per match	1.1	0.83
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.37

Playing style	Brøndby	SønderjyskE
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.35
xT per match	1.1	0.97
xTA per match	0.79	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.19
Entries into the box per match	16	13
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.62
Passes per match	354	258
Passes against per match	358	436
Switches of play per match	20.3	23.6
Long balls per match	26	37

Set pieces	Brøndby	SønderjyskE
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.02
Corners per match	6.8	5.9
Corners against per match	5.4	5.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.72

Other	Brøndby	SønderjyskE
Throw-in control	0.71	0.78

The goalkeepers	Patrick Pentz (Brøndby)	Marcus Bundgaard (SønderjyskE)
Saves	6	9
Save %	100%	75%
xG prevented	100%	79%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brøndby vs SønderjyskE according to our model?

The model gives Brøndby a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brøndby 56%, draw 25%, SønderjyskE 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.