Brøndby vs Viborg: Prediction & Odds (2 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga2 August 2026 16:00 CESTBrøndby Stadion, Brøndby18°16 km/h

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BrøndbyCounter-attacks & crosses

1–0

ViborgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Brøndby (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Viborg @ 3.87 (+10 %)

1 · Brøndby 47%X 25%28% Viborg · 2

47%

25%

28%

Analysis: Brøndby – Viborg

Oscar Nilsson · 31 July 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Six encounters since 2022, and Brondby IF has only managed two wins to Viborg's three. This paints a picture of a matchup where Viborg holds a subtle but undeniable psychological edge. The expected goals tell a similar story: Brondby IF is expected to net 1.66 to Viborg's 1.43, a slim gap that suggests both teams are likely to find the net. The numbers whisper a narrative of narrow margins and potential fireworks.

Brondby IF concedes 1.9 xGA per match, which is alarming when paired with Viborg's ability to produce 1.2 xG per match. This vulnerability in Brondby's defense hints at the likelihood of Viborg capitalizing on their chances. Yet, Brondby IF's own xG of 0.96 per match suggests they might struggle to exploit Viborg's defensive weaknesses as effectively. Both teams favor a counter-attacking style, which could lead to an open game with opportunities aplenty.

Then there’s the betting landscape. The market has priced Viborg at 3.78 with Pinnacle, carrying an 8% value edge according to the model. Viborg's historical edge and Brondby's defensive frailties make this a tempting proposition for the shrewd punter. Although Brondby IF holds the model's edge with a 47% chance of winning, the real intrigue lies in the over 2.5 goals market, priced at 1.709. With a model probability of 60%, there's a modest 2% edge here.

Viborg. A team that's shown resilience and poise against Brondby IF before, and yet the bookmakers have them as underdogs. Those looking for value might find the away win at 3.78 hard to resist. Given the likelihood of goals, however, the over 2.5 market at 1.709 is an appealing option that aligns with both teams' playing styles and recent trends. The most likely outcome? A 2-1 victory for Brondby IF, but the savvy betters will be watching Viborg closely.

Brøndby

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #9xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Sidi Mohamed Cherif HaidaraFxG 0.37 · xT -0.07
Sefer EminiCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.23
Magnus JensenCDMxG 0.34 · xT 0.11

Viborg

Form WDLLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #7xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Julius MadsenLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.03
Adam HerdonssonFxG 0.00 · xT -0.01
Mikkel KupijbidaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.00

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Brøndby 47% · Draw 25% · Viborg 28%

Match prediction: Brøndby – Viborg

Predicted score matrix

Viborg →

Brøndby →

0–04.8%

0–16.2%

0–24.6%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.1%

1–07.2%

1–111.1%

1–27.7%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.3%

2–19.0%

2–26.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.5%

3–15.0%

3–23.6%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.0%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,66–1,43

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.28

Over 2,560%

@1.67

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Brøndby to win47%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Brøndby to win47%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen to score28%
Jeppe Nørregaard Grønning to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Viborg28% probability@3.87PinnacleEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brøndby	X	2 · Viborg
Pinnacle	1.91	3.88	EV+ 10% 3.87

Odds updated 2 Aug, 10:10

Odds movement

10 %

52 %47 %

1.91 → 1.91

X+3 %

28 %23 %

3.75 → 3.88

2+1 %

27 %22 %

3.82 → 3.87

Over 2,5-3 %

59 %54 %

1.71 → 1.67

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 02/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Brøndby 2Draw 1Viborg 3

Goals: 8–8 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brøndby

Viborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brøndby (1–1)

Viborg (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brøndby

Viborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brøndby

Viborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brøndby	Viborg
Points	1	3
xPoints	0.9	1.5
xG per match	0.96	1.2
xGA per match	1.9	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.47	0.51

Playing style	Brøndby	Viborg
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.43	0.34
xT per match	0.62	0.87
xTA per match	1.1	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	17	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.41	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.44	0.42
Entries into the box per match	15	7
Entries into the box against	23	8
Pass completion %	0.73	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.63
Passes per match	293	296
Passes against per match	334	414
Switches of play per match	12.2	11.4
Long balls per match	21	29

Set pieces	Brøndby	Viborg
xG from free kicks	0.09	0
Corners per match	6.1	7.3
Corners against per match	10.2	9.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.89

Other	Brøndby	Viborg
Throw-in control	0.69	0.74

The goalkeepers	Jordi Vanlerberghe (Brøndby)	Kasper Hartly Kiilerich (Viborg)
Saves	2	5
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brøndby

Fixtures, form & tips

Viborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brøndby vs Viborg according to our model?

The model gives Brøndby a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brøndby 47%, draw 25%, Viborg 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.