Nordsjælland vs Silkeborg: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga16 August 2026 14:00 CESTRight to Dream Park, Farum19°19 km/h

Läs på svenska

NordsjællandPossession & high press

SilkeborgBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Nordsjælland (69%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.87 (+7 %)

1 · Nordsjælland 69%X 17%14% Silkeborg · 2

69%

17%

14%

Analysis: Nordsjælland – Silkeborg

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Sixty-nine percent—those are the odds in favor of FC Nordsjaelland making light work of Silkeborg, and it's a number that has some heft behind it. The home side's attacking prowess, evidenced by an expected goals metric of 2.27, stands in stark contrast to Silkeborg's 1.06. More than just numbers on a page, this figure tells a story of control and intent, driven by Nordsjaelland's high-press, possession-based game, which should dictate the tempo and direction of the match.

FC Nordsjaelland have been on a fine run, with no losses in their last five league encounters. Their fortress at home is daunting, winning 61% of games played there since the start of last year. However, Silkeborg have shown they have what it takes to upset the odds, winning two of their four head-to-head clashes with Nordsjaelland since 2022. Yet, a small sample size cautions against weighing these results too heavily against the broader form and statistical strengths of Nordsjaelland.

Two-one and two-nil are the most likely scorelines, according to the model, with a 10% and 9% chance, respectively. The over 2.5 goals market is juicy at 65%, pointing to an open game, albeit tempered slightly by Silkeborg's physicality and potential to disrupt. Weather conditions aren't mentioned here, so we can expect these probabilities to hold unless a last-minute storm rolls in.

While a Silkeborg victory is a long shot, odds of 7.4 with Betsson and Nordicbet do offer value, given the model's 14% estimation. For those keen on a safer punt, the under 3.5 goals market offers a 7% edge at odds of 1.869 with Pinnacle, underlining the potential for a game that's more tactical than torrid. If you're looking to play your cards right, that might just be the sharpest angle in the deck.

Nordsjælland

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #5

Key players

Nicklas RojkjaerLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.08
Mamadou Lamine SadioFxG 0.58 · xT 0.04
Stephen AcquahCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.15

Silkeborg

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #10xP/match #3Points #7

Key players

Callum MccowattFxG 0.15 · xT 0.20
Mads LarsenCMxG 0.00 · xT -0.01
Villads WesthCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Nordsjælland – Silkeborg

Predicted score matrix

Silkeborg →

Nordsjælland →

0–03.8%

0–13.6%

0–22.0%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.9%

1–18.9%

1–24.6%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.2%

2–19.8%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.0%

3–17.4%

3–23.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–06.7%

4+–17.1%

4+–23.8%

4+–31.3%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,27–1,06

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.95EV+4%

Over 2,565%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nordsjælland to win69%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nordsjælland to win69%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Hjalte Boe Kling Rasmussen to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Hjalte Boe Kling Rasmussen to score36%
William Kirk to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.557% probability@1.87PinnacleEV+7%
2 · Silkeborg14% probability@7.40BetssonEV+6%
2 · Silkeborg14% probability@7.40NordicbetEV+6%

Bookmaker	1 · Nordsjælland	X	2 · Silkeborg
Betfair Exchange	1.30	4.90	6.00
Betsafe	1.40	4.75	EV+ 3% 7.20
Betsson	1.41	4.80	EV+ 6% 7.40
Nordicbet	1.41	4.80	EV+ 6% 7.40
Paddy Power	1.44	4.50	5.00
Pinnacle	1.37	5.44	6.80

Odds updated 13 Aug, 13:36

Odds movement

10 %

71 %66 %

1.37 → 1.37

X+1 %

20 %15 %

5.38 → 5.44

20 %

16 %11 %

6.82 → 6.80

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nordsjælland 1Draw 1Silkeborg 2

Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

Key facts

FC Nordsjaelland are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
FC Nordsjaelland win 61% of their home matches all-time (33 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nordsjælland

Silkeborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nordsjælland (2–1)

Silkeborg (3–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

Silkeborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

Silkeborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nordsjælland	Silkeborg
Points	4	4
xPoints	3.8	4.8
xG per match	2.9	0.99
xGA per match	0.92	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.05	0.1

Playing style	Nordsjælland	Silkeborg
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.32
Field tilt	0.8	0.42
xT per match	1.9	0.63
xTA per match	0.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	30	18
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.19
Entries into the box per match	27	14
Entries into the box against	4	13
Pass completion %	0.84	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.78
Passes per match	636	474
Passes against per match	265	478
Switches of play per match	32.7	15.8
Long balls per match	39	20

Set pieces	Nordsjælland	Silkeborg
xG from free kicks	0.31	0.04
Corners per match	12.1	6.7
Corners against per match	4	4
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.58

Other	Nordsjælland	Silkeborg
Throw-in control	0.7	0.74

The goalkeepers	Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland)	Aske Andresen (Silkeborg)
Saves	7	7
Save %	88%	64%
xG prevented	31%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nordsjælland vs Silkeborg according to our model?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordsjælland 69%, draw 17%, Silkeborg 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.