Randers vs Lyngby: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Danish Superliga9 August 2026 16:00 CESTCepheus Park, Randers20°21 km/h

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RandersBalanced & physical

LyngbyCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Randers (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lyngby @ 3.08 (+3 %)

1 · Randers 43%X 24%33% Lyngby · 2

43%

24%

33%

Analysis: Randers – Lyngby

Anna Karlsson · 7 August 2026 · How the predictions work

In the tight arena of the Danish Superliga, Randers and Lyngby Boldklub face off in a matchup where the numbers tell a compelling story. Randers has the edge according to the model with a 43% win probability, but it's the away side, Lyngby Boldklub, who boast a better xG profile since 2022, suggesting they might be undervalued in this clash. Despite the small head-to-head sample of just two games that ended in draws, Lyngby Boldklub's expected goals and points indicate an edge, particularly in their ability to create scoring chances quickly after winning possession.

Randers is a team defined by its balanced and physical approach, yet they will be wary of Lyngby Boldklub's prowess on the counter and proficiency in delivering dangerous crosses. While the model's most likely scoreline is a tight 1-1 draw (12%), the expected goals differential is razor thin: 1.46 for Randers against 1.40 for Lyngby Boldklub. It's a match where subtle nuances could tilt the scales, such as Randers' higher expected goals against (xGA) at 1.7, which suggests defensive vulnerabilities that the visitors could exploit.

Over the last year, Lyngby Boldklub has shown a knack for creating high-quality chances, evidenced by their superior xG per match (2.8) compared to Randers' 0.58. The expected goals within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.85 for Lyngby against 0.08 for Randers) further underpins their threat on the break. This quality, coupled with a match probability slanting in their favour at odds of 3.26 with Pinnacle, offers a tantalising value bet for those who see through the statistical lens.

A 2-1 result either way falls within the realm of possibility, yet the lingering question is whether Randers can withstand Lyngby Boldklub's incisive counter-attacking style. With a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to get on the scoresheet (58%), bettors might find an enticing proposition in favouring Lyngby Boldklub to edge a closely contested encounter. Ending on the sharpest note, the value lies with the away side, making that Pinnacle price worth a roll of the dice.

Randers

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #10xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Mohamed Ortaim SankohFxG 0.06 · xT -0.14
Mike ThemsenCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Wessel DammersCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Lyngby

Form LLWLD

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #2xP/match #1Points #8

Key players

Simon Willem ColynLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.40
Ísak Snær ÞorvaldssonFxG 0.88 · xT 0.04
Lauge Wesenberg SandgravCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Randers – Lyngby

Predicted score matrix

Lyngby →

Randers →

0–06.1%

0–17.7%

0–25.6%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.1%

1–112.0%

1–28.2%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.1%

2–18.6%

2–26.0%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.0%

3–14.2%

3–22.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,46–1,40

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.10

Over 2,554%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Randers or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Randers or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Mathias Peter Greve Petersen to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Mathias Peter Greve Petersen to score25%
Lauge Wesenberg Sandgrav to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lyngby33% probability@3.08PinnacleEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Randers	X	2 · Lyngby
Pinnacle	2.24	3.68	EV+ 3% 3.08

Odds updated 8 Aug, 15:52

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Lyngby win since 3 August — the odds have shortened from 3.36 to 3.08 (−8%).

1+9 %

47 %42 %

2.06 → 2.24

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.67 → 3.68

2-8 %

32 %27 %

3.36 → 3.08

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Randers 0Draw 2Lyngby 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Randers

Lyngby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Randers (1–2)

Lyngby (4–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Randers

Lyngby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Randers

Lyngby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Randers	Lyngby
Points	1	1
xPoints	1.9	4.1
xG per match	0.58	2.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.85
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.27

Playing style	Randers	Lyngby
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.7
xT per match	0.61	1.6
xTA per match	1.3	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	21	39
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.39
Entries into the box per match	6	19
Entries into the box against	22	7
Pass completion %	0.78	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.69
Passes per match	381	326
Passes against per match	602	303
Switches of play per match	15.7	12.4
Long balls per match	23	25

Set pieces	Randers	Lyngby
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	4.6	4.5
Corners against per match	9.1	3.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.78
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.57

Other	Randers	Lyngby
Throw-in control	0.83	0.69

The goalkeepers	Jannich Storch (Randers)	Diego Kochen (Lyngby)
Saves	9	4
Save %	82%	44%
xG prevented	49%	19%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Randers vs Lyngby according to our model?

The model gives Randers a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Randers 43%, draw 24%, Lyngby 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.