01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AGF to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Danish SuperligaEnergi Viborg Arena, Viborg23°14 km/h
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ViborgCounter-attacks & crossesvs
AGFCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · AGF (47%)
Viborg – AGF · Danish Superliga
1 · Viborg 30%X 23%47% AGF · 2
30%
23%
47%
Analysis: Viborg – AGF
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
AGF Aarhus heads into their clash against Viborg with a commanding grip on the historical matchup, boasting four victories in their last six meetings since 2022. Despite Viborg's slight edge in the current points tally — 4 to AGF Aarhus’s 2 — and xPoints (4.5 vs 3.0), the game tilts in favor of AGF Aarhus. The model assigns a 47% probability to an AGF Aarhus win, pushing them forward as favorites.
Viborg's resilient counter-attacking style and reliance on crosses might find some joy against AGF Aarhus’s defense, which has a higher expected goals against per match (1.8) than Viborg (1.3). Yet, AGF Aarhus’s unbeaten streak in their past seven league matches suggests they won't be easily breached. The expected goals suggest a narrow affair, with AGF Aarhus holding a slight advantage at 1.56 xG to Viborg's 1.37.
The most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 (12%) and 1-2 (9%), indicate a competitive fixture, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals reinforcing the narrative of past high-scoring encounters. The average of 4.2 goals per meeting could again come into play, especially given both teams’ affinity for counter-attacking football, though Viborg might struggle to convert their opportunities based on the historical head-to-head outcomes.
AGF Aarhus emerges as the sharp betting angle here. With significant value on AGF Aarhus at odds of 3.54 with Pinnacle, and 3.45 with both Betsafe and Betsson, the model’s 47% win probability signals a substantial edge. Given the 68% edge with Pinnacle’s odds, bettors might find a profitable opportunity backing AGF Aarhus to continue their dominance over Viborg.
ViborgForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #9xP/match #5Points #6
Key players
- Thomas JorgensenFxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
- Lukas Emil KirkegaardCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.22
- Oliver BundgaardLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
AGFForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #8xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Kristian ArnstadFxG 0.84 · xT 0.04
- Frederik TingagerCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.27
- Frederik EmmeryLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.31
Match prediction: Viborg – AGF
Predicted score matrix
AGF →
Viborg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–18.0%
0–26.5%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–07.0%
1–111.7%
1–28.9%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–05.0%
2–17.8%
2–26.1%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.6%
3–22.8%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,37–1,56
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.26
Over 2,556%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AGF to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad to score23%
- Jens Jønsson to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · AGF47% probability@3.54PinnacleEV+68%
- 2 · AGF47% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+63%
- 2 · AGF47% probability@3.45BetssonEV+63%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viborg | X | 2 · AGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | 3.60 | EV+ 63% 3.45 |
| Betsson | 2.05 | 3.65 | EV+ 63% 3.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.05 | 3.65 | EV+ 63% 3.45 |
| Paddy Power | 2.45 | 3.60 | EV+ 14% 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.72 | EV+ 68% 3.54 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:10
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Viborg win since 8 August — the odds have shortened from 2.33 to 1.98 (−15%).
1-15 %
49 %39 %
2.33 → 1.98
X+2 %
31 %21 %
3.64 → 3.72
2+24 %
35 %25 %
2.86 → 3.54
Over 2,5-1 %
62 %52 %
1.67 → 1.65
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesViborg 0Draw 2AGF 4
Goals: 8–17 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Danish Superliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- AGF Aarhus dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
- AGF Aarhus are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viborg
AGF
Viborg (1–1)
AGF (3–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viborg
AGF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viborg
AGF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viborg | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 2 |
| xPoints | 4.5 | 3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Viborg | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| Passes per match | 388 | 266 |
| Passes against per match | 352 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.1 | 19.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Viborg | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.1 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.5 |
| Other | Viborg | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Kasper Hartly Kiilerich (Viborg) | Mads Hedenstad Christiansen (AGF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 5 |
| Save % | 92% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 94% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viborg vs AGF according to our model?
The model gives AGF a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viborg 30%, draw 23%, AGF 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.