01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Emmen to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Eerste Divisie19°14 km/h
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Jong AjaxPossession controlvs
EmmenPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Emmen (48%)
Jong Ajax – Emmen · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong Ajax 27%X 25%48% Emmen · 2
27%
25%
48%
Analysis: Jong Ajax – Emmen
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
In the realm of Eerste Divisie clashes, the weight of Emmen's recent performances against Ajax Amsterdam B looms large. With a head-to-head record since 2023 that reads 3 wins for Emmen, 1 draw, and no victories for Ajax Amsterdam B, even if it's a small sample size of four matches, the psychological edge is undeniable.
Ajax Amsterdam B may find solace in their marginally superior xGA per match (1.6) compared to Emmen's 1.7, a slight indication of defensive resilience. However, Emmen's offensive prowess surfaces with an xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball at 0.32, dwarfing Ajax Amsterdam B's 0.08. This stark contrast suggests Emmen's ability to capitalise swiftly on transitional play, a factor that could tilt the scales if Ajax Amsterdam B fail to maintain their possession-based strategy.
Emmen's probability of victory stands at 48%, clearly outstripping Ajax Amsterdam B's 27%. When coupled with an expected goals tally that favours the visitors (1.75 to 1.40), it's difficult to ignore the likelihood of an Emmen win. The model indicates a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline at 11%, yet the 9% chance of a 1-2 result in favour of Emmen is compelling, reflecting both the current form and head-to-head influence.
While the over 2.5 goals proposition sits at 61%, there's an intriguing avenue with the under 2.5 goals market, touted at odds of 2.62 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a 3% edge identified by the model, this represents solid value, suggesting a potentially tighter affair than the over/under stats initially imply. The narrative here leans towards an Emmen victory, possibly 1-2, but the smart money might just be on a more subdued goal count than many expect.
Jong AjaxForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #18xP/match #15Points #18
Key players
- Don Angelo KonaduFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
- Abdellah OuazaneFxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Skye VinkFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
EmmenForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #13xP/match #12Points #7
Key players
- Romano PostemaFxG 0.52 · xT 0.08
- Pascal MulderCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
- Freddy QuispelFxG 0.24 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Jong Ajax – Emmen
Predicted score matrix
Emmen →
Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.6%
0–17.2%
0–26.6%
0–33.8%
0–4+2.5%
1
1–05.7%
1–110.8%
1–29.2%
1–35.3%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–04.2%
2–17.4%
2–26.4%
2–33.7%
2–4+2.4%
3
3–02.0%
3–13.4%
3–23.0%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,40–1,75
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.62EV+3%
Over 2,561%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Emmen to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Freddy Quispel to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Emre Ünüvar to score34%
- Joshua Ebitonmo Mukeh to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Emmen48% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+6%
- 2 · Emmen48% probability@2.22BetssonEV+6%
- 2 · Emmen48% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+6%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jong Ajax | X | 2 · Emmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.82 | 3.65 | EV+ 6% 2.22 |
| Betsson | 2.82 | 3.65 | EV+ 6% 2.22 |
| Nordicbet | 2.82 | 3.65 | EV+ 6% 2.22 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Jong Ajax win since 11 August — the odds have shortened from 3.20 to 2.82 (−12%).
1-12 %
34 %29 %
3.20 → 2.82
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.65 → 3.65
2+10 %
46 %41 %
2.02 → 2.22
Over 2,50 %
67 %62 %
1.46 → 1.46
Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJong Ajax 0Draw 1Emmen 3
Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong Ajax
Emmen
Jong Ajax (1–2)
Emmen (1–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong Ajax
Emmen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong Ajax
Emmen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong Ajax | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Jong Ajax | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 284 | 287 |
| Passes against per match | 325 | 375 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.2 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 20 |
| Set pieces | Jong Ajax | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 0 |
| Corners against per match | 8.1 | 2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 1 |
| Other | Jong Ajax | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax) | Sam Karssies (Emmen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 3 |
| Save % | 75% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong Ajax vs Emmen according to our model?
The model gives Emmen a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Ajax 27%, draw 25%, Emmen 48%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.