Eerste Divisie21°12 km/h

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    VVV-VenloVVV-VenloPossession control
    3–4
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    The model's lean: 1 · VVV-Venlo (40%)

    VVV-Venlo vs Heracles Almelo · Eerste Divisie

    1 · VVV-Venlo 40%X 28%32% Heracles Almelo · 2

    Analysis: VVV-Venlo – Heracles Almelo

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    VVV Venlo sit slightly ahead of Heracles Almelo in the Eerste Divisie standings, boasting 45 points to Heracles Almelo's 39. With VVV Venlo having the edge in both points and expected points (50.5 vs 48.5), they appear to have a marginal upper hand going into this matchup. The model gives them a 40% chance of victory, suggesting a slight lean towards the home side.

    VVV Venlo's possession control style mirrors that of Heracles Almelo, promising an intriguing midfield battle. Despite similarities in playing style, VVV Venlo's offensive edge is pronounced with an xG per match of 1.5 compared to Heracles Almelo's 1.1. This could tip the scales, especially when considering their slightly higher expected goals tally of 1.48 to Heracles Almelo's 1.30. Yet defensively, Heracles have managed a better xGA per match of 1.5 compared to VVV's 1.6, indicating a potential vulnerability in the Venlo defensive line.

    Heracles Almelo fans might find solace in the 32% chance the model gives them to claim victory. However, with both teams predisposed to controlling possession, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Heracles overpower VVV offensively. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), and 2-1 (9%) favour a close contest, yet subtly nod towards a home win or a draw. A 1-1 draw seems the likeliest outcome, but a 2-1 victory for VVV Venlo cannot be neglected.

    The over/under 2.5 goals market presents a slight inclination towards the over at 52%, with both teams to score rated at 56%. Given the tight margins, the betting value lies in backing VVV Venlo outright. With odds of 6/5 offered by Betfair, there's an attractive edge for those favoring the home side, particularly with VVV's marginal superiority on multiple metrics. This isn't a guarantee, but there's enough evidence to suggest VVV Venlo narrowly holds the cards in this contest.

    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    Form WLDLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #8xP/match #14Points #14
    Key players
    • Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.45 · xT 0.08
    • Bjorn van ZijlFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
    • Yousri SbaiRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Final score
    3 – 4
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: VVV-Venlo 40% · Draw 28% · Heracles Almelo 32%

    Match prediction: VVV-Venlo – Heracles Almelo

    Predicted score matrix

    Heracles Almelo →
    VVV-Venlo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–17.8%
    0–25.3%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.4%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,48–1,30
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    –
    Over 2,552%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.94

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Dean Zandbergen to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Dean Zandbergen to score22%
    • Thomas Bruns to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    VVV-Venlo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    VVV-Venlo (50–58)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    VVV-Venlo
    Luuk Verheij: 237 passningar, xT 0.11VerheijTijn Joosten: 225 passningar, xT 0.37JoostenYousri Sbai: 199 passningar, xT 0.93SbaiYouri Schoonderwaldt: 180 passningar, xT 0.31SchoonderwaldtNavarone Foor: 151 passningar, xT 0.64FoorGabin Blancquart: 142 passningar, xT 0.01BlancquartPhilip Michael Heise: 87 passningar, xT 0.22HeiseLars de Blok: 76 passningar, xT 0.19BlokDriess Saddiki: 70 passningar, xT 0.09SaddikiDean Zandbergen: 59 passningar, xT 0.2ZandbergenRaf Vullers: 57 passningar, xT -0.07Vullers
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    VVV-Venlo
    Luuk Verheij: 237 passningar, xT 0.11VerheijTijn Joosten: 225 passningar, xT 0.37JoostenYousri Sbai: 199 passningar, xT 0.93SbaiYouri Schoonderwaldt: 180 passningar, xT 0.31SchoonderwaldtNavarone Foor: 151 passningar, xT 0.64FoorGabin Blancquart: 142 passningar, xT 0.01BlancquartPhilip Michael Heise: 87 passningar, xT 0.22HeiseLars de Blok: 76 passningar, xT 0.19BlokDriess Saddiki: 70 passningar, xT 0.09SaddikiDean Zandbergen: 59 passningar, xT 0.2ZandbergenRaf Vullers: 57 passningar, xT -0.07Vullers
    The goalkeepersYouri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo)Heracles Almelo
    Saves131–
    Save %70%–
    xG prevented43%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Teams & more matches this round

    VVV-Venlo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Heracles Almelo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins VVV-Venlo vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?

    The model gives VVV-Venlo a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VVV-Venlo 40%, draw 28%, Heracles Almelo 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.