VVV-Venlo vs Heracles Almelo: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie7 August 202618°9 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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VVV-VenloPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · VVV-Venlo (40%)

Heracles AlmeloPossession control

1 · VVV-Venlo 40%X 28%32% Heracles Almelo · 2

40%

28%

32%

VVV-Venlo

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #8xP/match #14Points #14

Key players

Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.45 · xT 0.08
Bjorn van ZijlFxG 0.35 · xT 0.1
Yousri SbaiRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Heracles Almelo

League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #18xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Amine Et-TaïbiRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Maik LukowiczFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Noah Ernest Makanza MbelebaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: VVV-Venlo – Heracles Almelo

Predicted score matrix

Heracles Almelo →

VVV-Venlo →

0–06.6%

0–17.8%

0–25.3%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.9%

1–112.3%

1–27.8%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–18.8%

2–25.7%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.3%

3–14.3%

3–22.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,48–1,30

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

–

Over 2,552%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: VVV-Venlo – Heracles Almelo

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

VVV Venlo sit slightly ahead of Heracles Almelo in the Eerste Divisie standings, boasting 45 points to Heracles Almelo's 39. With VVV Venlo having the edge in both points and expected points (50.5 vs 48.5), they appear to have a marginal upper hand going into this matchup. The model gives them a 40% chance of victory, suggesting a slight lean towards the home side.

VVV Venlo's possession control style mirrors that of Heracles Almelo, promising an intriguing midfield battle. Despite similarities in playing style, VVV Venlo's offensive edge is pronounced with an xG per match of 1.5 compared to Heracles Almelo's 1.1. This could tip the scales, especially when considering their slightly higher expected goals tally of 1.48 to Heracles Almelo's 1.30. Yet defensively, Heracles have managed a better xGA per match of 1.5 compared to VVV's 1.6, indicating a potential vulnerability in the Venlo defensive line.

Heracles Almelo fans might find solace in the 32% chance the model gives them to claim victory. However, with both teams predisposed to controlling possession, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Heracles overpower VVV offensively. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), and 2-1 (9%) favour a close contest, yet subtly nod towards a home win or a draw. A 1-1 draw seems the likeliest outcome, but a 2-1 victory for VVV Venlo cannot be neglected.

The over/under 2.5 goals market presents a slight inclination towards the over at 52%, with both teams to score rated at 56%. Given the tight margins, the betting value lies in backing VVV Venlo outright. With odds of 6/5 offered by Betfair, there's an attractive edge for those favoring the home side, particularly with VVV's marginal superiority on multiple metrics. This isn't a guarantee, but there's enough evidence to suggest VVV Venlo narrowly holds the cards in this contest.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

VVV-Venlo

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

VVV-Venlo (50–58)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

VVV-Venlo

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

VVV-Venlo

The teams in numbers

Performance	VVV-Venlo	Heracles Almelo
Points	45	39
xPoints	50.5	48.5
xG per match	1.5	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.24

Playing style	VVV-Venlo	Heracles Almelo
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.51	0.45
xT per match	1.1	0.85
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.3
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	330	339
Passes against per match	345	363
Switches of play per match	22.2	23.5
Long balls per match	32	37

Set pieces	VVV-Venlo	Heracles Almelo
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	5.1	5.9
Corners against per match	5.6	4.9
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.58

Other	VVV-Venlo	Heracles Almelo
Throw-in control	0.74	0.73

The goalkeepers	Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo)	Heracles Almelo
Saves	131	–
Save %	70%	–
xG prevented	43%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins VVV-Venlo vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?

The model gives VVV-Venlo a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VVV-Venlo 40%, draw 28%, Heracles Almelo 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.