Eerste Divisie23°21 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Jong PSVJong PSVPossession control
    3–2
    VolendamVolendam
    The model's lean: 2 · Volendam (44%)

    Jong PSV vs Volendam · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong PSV 37%X 20%44% Volendam · 2

    Analysis: Jong PSV – Volendam

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    14 consecutive matches with a goal for FC Volendam — that's a streak worth noting in any league. Their consistency in finding the net fuels the narrative in this Eerste Divisie clash against PSV U21. Despite PSV U21's home advantage, the numbers lean toward FC Volendam, with a 44% model probability in their favor compared to PSV U21's 37%. The small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows two wins for FC Volendam, but let's not overvalue that limited set. Instead, the current run of form and expected goals offer a more nuanced picture.

    PSV U21 enters this bout with a modest expected goals tally of 1.49 against FC Volendam's 1.68. It's within these margins that the likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1 take shape. A 1-1 draw tops the probabilities at 11%, yet the model's slight lean towards a 1-2 victory for FC Volendam at 9% suggests the away side has the edge.

    FC Volendam's offensive prowess doesn't seem to be waning; their streak is not just a statistical quirk but a testament to their attacking quality. PSV U21 will need to bring their A-game defensively. Yet, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, the expectation is for a lively fixture. These numbers point to a match where defenses may struggle to hold.

    FC Volendam might not walk away with a clean sheet, but their form and the odds are too compelling to ignore. The weather isn't a factor, and this clash's values lie in the goal markets. With FC Volendam's impressive scoring run and the model's lean towards them, the smart money could be on an FC Volendam win. At odds of 2.25 with Bet365, this offers a potentially profitable edge for those looking to capitalize on their current form.

    Jong PSVJong PSV
    Form LWWLL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #17xP/match #13Points #8
    Key players
    • Tai Abed KassusRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.14
    • Nicolas VerkooijenRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
    • Fabio KluitRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.17
    VolendamVolendam
    Form WLWWL
    Key players
    • Henk VeermanFxG 0.63 · xT 0.04
    • Bilal Ould ChikhRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
    • Milan De HaanLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    3 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jong PSV 37% · Draw 20% · Volendam 44%

    Match prediction: Jong PSV – Volendam

    Predicted score matrix

    Volendam →
    Jong PSV →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.5%
    0–16.7%
    0–25.9%
    0–33.3%
    0–4+2.0%
    1
    1–05.9%
    1–110.8%
    1–28.8%
    1–35.0%
    1–4+3.0%
    2
    2–04.6%
    2–17.8%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.3%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.9%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–12.0%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-17%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,49–1,68
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    –
    Over 2,562%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Volendam or draw (X2)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Volendam or draw (X2)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Benjamin Pauwels to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Sami Bouhoudane to score27%
    • Nicolas Verkooijen to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Jong PSV 0Draw 0Volendam 2
    Goals: 1–8 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FC Volendam have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong PSV
    Volendam
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Jong PSV (66–64)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong PSV
    Madi Monamay: 274 passningar, xT 0.35MonamayFabian Merién: 231 passningar, xT 0.25MeriénWessel Kuhn: 218 passningar, xT 0.65KuhnSouleymane Lamine Sidibe: 137 passningar, xT 0.04SidibeEssien Bassey: 133 passningar, xT 1.21BasseyFabio Kluit: 128 passningar, xT 0.41KluitManuel Bahaty: 121 passningar, xT 1.39BahatyNicolas Verkooijen: 108 passningar, xT 0.27VerkooijenJordy Bawuah: 99 passningar, xT 0.15BawuahNiek Schiks: 98 passningar, xT 0.11SchiksSven van der Plas: 86 passningar, xT 0.07Plas
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong PSV
    Madi Monamay: 274 passningar, xT 0.35MonamayFabian Merién: 231 passningar, xT 0.25MeriénWessel Kuhn: 218 passningar, xT 0.65KuhnSouleymane Lamine Sidibe: 137 passningar, xT 0.04SidibeEssien Bassey: 133 passningar, xT 1.21BasseyFabio Kluit: 128 passningar, xT 0.41KluitManuel Bahaty: 121 passningar, xT 1.39BahatyNicolas Verkooijen: 108 passningar, xT 0.27VerkooijenJordy Bawuah: 99 passningar, xT 0.15BawuahNiek Schiks: 98 passningar, xT 0.11SchiksSven van der Plas: 86 passningar, xT 0.07Plas
    The goalkeepersNiek Schiks (Jong PSV)Volendam
    Saves94–
    Save %76%–
    xG prevented57%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jong PSV
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Volendam
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong PSV vs Volendam according to our model?

    The model gives Volendam a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong PSV 37%, draw 20%, Volendam 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    DordrechtDordrecht
    2–1
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    1 59%X 21%2 20%
    The model called the outcome
    VitesseVitesse
    1–1
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 37%X 26%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.