Jong PSV vs Volendam: Prediction & Odds (10 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie10 August 202623°0,6 mm15 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Jong PSVPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Volendam (44%)

VolendamPossession control

1 · Jong PSV 37%X 20%44% Volendam · 2

37%

20%

44%

Jong PSV

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #17xP/match #13Points #8

Key players

Tai Abed KassusRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.14
Nicolas VerkooijenRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
Fabio KluitRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.17

Volendam

Form WLWWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #19xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.1 · xT 0.11
Rangelo JangaFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
Sven SimonsCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Jong PSV – Volendam

Predicted score matrix

Volendam →

Jong PSV →

0–04.5%

0–16.7%

0–25.9%

0–33.3%

0–4+2.0%

1–05.9%

1–110.8%

1–28.8%

1–35.0%

1–4+3.0%

2–04.6%

2–17.8%

2–26.6%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.3%

3–02.3%

3–13.9%

3–23.3%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.1%

4+–01.2%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.7%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,49–1,68

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Jong PSV – Volendam

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Two matches, two losses. That's the recent head-to-head record between PSV U21 and FC Volendam, a stat that looms large as these teams prepare to clash again. Despite PSV U21's higher points tally, 56 to Volendam's 47, it's the visitors who are favoured by the model with a 44% chance of victory. Their recent consistency in finding the net—scoring in 14 consecutive league matches—suggests they know how to break through, and PSV U21 will need to be wary.

FC Volendam's style mirrors that of PSV U21, both preferring to control possession, but this hasn't translated into better results for Volendam on the table. However, the underlying numbers tell a different story. With an xPoints tally of 54.7 against PSV U21's 51.7, Volendam seems to be operating slightly under their potential. But PSV U21's marginal edge in expected goals per match, 1.5 to Volendam's 1.4, underscores a finely poised matchup where both sides can dictate proceedings.

PSV U21, despite being the home side, might find it challenging to exploit their possession advantage, given Volendam's keen eye for goal. This match leans towards action, with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood of both teams scoring. The model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 reflects the tight nature of the contest, but given the recent head-to-head and goal-scoring form, a 1-2 outcome isn't far-fetched.

FC Volendam, with a 44% chance of winning and recent history on their side, presents an intriguing betting angle here. The market seems to have caught on, pricing them at a decent value with certain bookmakers. While no prediction is foolproof, if you're looking for a spot of value, FC Volendam at odds of 2.5 gives punters something to consider as they brace for what promises to be a competitive fixture.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Jong PSV 0Draw 0Volendam 2

Goals: 1–8 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Volendam have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong PSV

Volendam

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Jong PSV (66–64)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong PSV

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong PSV

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong PSV	Volendam
Points	56	47
xPoints	51.7	54.7
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.16

Playing style	Jong PSV	Volendam
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.5	0.43
xT per match	0.89	0.84
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.3
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	368	294
Passes against per match	334	396
Switches of play per match	22.7	23.3
Long balls per match	32	38

Set pieces	Jong PSV	Volendam
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.09
Corners per match	5	4.9
Corners against per match	6.3	6
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.65

Other	Jong PSV	Volendam
Throw-in control	0.73	0.71

The goalkeepers	Niek Schiks (Jong PSV)	Volendam
Saves	94	–
Save %	76%	–
xG prevented	57%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong PSV vs Volendam according to our model?

The model gives Volendam a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong PSV 37%, draw 20%, Volendam 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.