Eerste Divisie22°14 km/h

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    Helmond SportHelmond SportPossession control
    1–1
    De GraafschapDe GraafschapPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · De Graafschap (46%)

    Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Helmond Sport 30%X 24%46% De Graafschap · 2

    Analysis: Helmond Sport – De Graafschap

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Thirty-nine versus sixty-three; these numbers tell a tale of form and quality. As Helmond Sport braces for a clash with De Graafschap, the Eerste Divisie landscape paints De Graafschap as the clear favorite. The model probabilities give them a 46% chance of victory, a clear nod over Helmond Sport's 30%. But it's the expected goals that reveal deeper insights: De Graafschap's 1.76 looms large over Helmond Sport's 1.47, suggesting a game where De Graafschap's firepower could make the difference.

    Helmond Sport, with their possession-driven style, will have to punch above their weight, having only managed 1 win in 4 head-to-head clashes since 2023. Yet, this small sample size pales against the broader brush of the season's numbers. Helmond may sit on 39 points and De Graafschap on a more comfortable 63, but it's in the expected points — 48.5 versus 53.5 — where we see a more level playing field. The xPoints suggest Helmond might have underperformed, but the gap remains.

    De Graafschap comes into this match not just with the numerical advantages but also with a touch of tactical resolve. Both teams favor possession control, a style that could create a midfield chess match as each seeks to break the other's rhythm. But it's De Graafschap's superior xG of 1.8 per match that suggests they have the cutting edge to convert possession into goals. Helmond's xGA of 1.5 is solid, yet equally matched by De Graafschap, implying that while Helmond can stifle, they rarely smother.

    Expect a game that leans towards goals, with a 63% probability of over 2.5 suggesting a lively affair. The most likely scorelines point to a 1-1 or 1-2 finish, but with the balance of play, 1-2 feels more plausible. The 64% chance of both teams scoring adds weight to this, indicating chances at both ends. For the shrewd punter, the value lies with Unibet offering De Graafschap to win at 46% probability. This isn't a mere punt; it's a calculated wager in a clash where the numbers favor De Graafschap to edge out Helmond Sport.

    Helmond SportHelmond Sport
    Form LDDWL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #18xP/match #17Points #18
    Key players
    • Amine Et-TaïbiRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
    • Maik LukowiczFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
    • Noah Ernest Makanza MbelebaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    Form DWDWL
    League ranking xG #2xGA #12xT #3xP/match #10Points #4
    Key players
    • Bouke BoersmaFxG 0.59 · xT 0.03
    • Nils EggensFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
    • Ibrahim El KadiriLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.34
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Helmond Sport 30% · Draw 24% · De Graafschap 46%

    Match prediction: Helmond Sport – De Graafschap

    Predicted score matrix

    De Graafschap →
    Helmond Sport →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.2%
    0–16.7%
    0–26.1%
    0–33.6%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–05.5%
    1–110.5%
    1–29.0%
    1–35.3%
    1–4+3.5%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–17.5%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–02.1%
    3–13.7%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-17%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,76
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,537%
    –
    Over 2,563%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • De Graafschap to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.67

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • De Graafschap to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Jevon Simons to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Jevon Simons to score25%
    • Thomas Petrus Johannes Kok to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Helmond Sport 1Draw 1De Graafschap 2
    Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Helmond Sport
    De Graafschap
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Helmond Sport (42–62)
    De Graafschap (74–58)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Helmond Sport
    Alen Dizdarevic: 300 passningar, xT 0.21DizdarevicDennis Vos: 299 passningar, xT 0.42VosFlor Van Den Eynden: 280 passningar, xT 0.42EyndenAmir Absalem: 237 passningar, xT 1AbsalemPol Llonch: 227 passningar, xT 0.37LlonchSem Dekkers: 206 passningar, xT 0.2DekkersLennerd Daneels: 154 passningar, xT 0.24DaneelsMenno Bergsen: 97 passningar, xT 0.06BergsenNoah Ernest Makanza Mbeleba: 88 passningar, xT 0.05MbelebaOnesime Zimuangana: 65 passningar, xT 1.04ZimuanganaBrian Koglin: 62 passningar, xT 0.03Koglin
    De Graafschap
    Thomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 242 passningar, xT 0.08KokRowan Besselink: 202 passningar, xT 0.11BesselinkTies Wieggers: 199 passningar, xT 0.1WieggersNolan Martens: 154 passningar, xT 0.58MartensTeun Gijselhart: 142 passningar, xT 0.27GijselhartFedde de Jong: 118 passningar, xT 0.4JongKaya Symons: 112 passningar, xT 0.23SymonsStijn Bultman: 96 passningar, xT 0.09BultmanLevi Schoppema: 94 passningar, xT 0.59SchoppemaJason Meerstadt: 90 passningar, xT 0.02MeerstadtReuven Niemeijer: 77 passningar, xT 0.81Niemeijer
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Helmond Sport
    Alen Dizdarevic: 300 passningar, xT 0.21DizdarevicDennis Vos: 299 passningar, xT 0.42VosFlor Van Den Eynden: 280 passningar, xT 0.42EyndenAmir Absalem: 237 passningar, xT 1AbsalemPol Llonch: 227 passningar, xT 0.37LlonchSem Dekkers: 206 passningar, xT 0.2DekkersLennerd Daneels: 154 passningar, xT 0.24DaneelsMenno Bergsen: 97 passningar, xT 0.06BergsenNoah Ernest Makanza Mbeleba: 88 passningar, xT 0.05MbelebaOnesime Zimuangana: 65 passningar, xT 1.04ZimuanganaBrian Koglin: 62 passningar, xT 0.03Koglin
    De Graafschap
    Thomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 242 passningar, xT 0.08KokRowan Besselink: 202 passningar, xT 0.11BesselinkTies Wieggers: 199 passningar, xT 0.1WieggersNolan Martens: 154 passningar, xT 0.58MartensTeun Gijselhart: 142 passningar, xT 0.27GijselhartFedde de Jong: 118 passningar, xT 0.4JongKaya Symons: 112 passningar, xT 0.23SymonsStijn Bultman: 96 passningar, xT 0.09BultmanLevi Schoppema: 94 passningar, xT 0.59SchoppemaJason Meerstadt: 90 passningar, xT 0.02MeerstadtReuven Niemeijer: 77 passningar, xT 0.81Niemeijer

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHelmond SportDe Graafschap
    Points3963
    xPoints48.553.5
    xG per match1.11.8
    xGA per match1.51.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.240.23
    Playing styleHelmond SportDe Graafschap
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.450.51
    xT per match0.851.3
    xTA per match11.1
    Won balls, offensive half2225
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.35
    Entries into the box per match1114
    Entries into the box against1314
    Pass completion %0.760.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.72
    Passes per match339377
    Passes against per match363281
    Switches of play per match23.532.5
    Long balls per match3740
    Set piecesHelmond SportDe Graafschap
    xG from free kicks0.020.08
    Corners per match5.96.5
    Corners against per match4.95.7
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.050.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.340.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.58
    OtherHelmond SportDe Graafschap
    Throw-in control0.730.76
    The goalkeepersMenno Bergsen (Helmond Sport)Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap)
    Saves93141
    Save %62%71%
    xG prevented48%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Helmond Sport
    Fixtures, form & tips
    De Graafschap
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap according to our model?

    The model gives De Graafschap a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helmond Sport 30%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 46%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.