Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 August 202625°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

Läs på svenska

Helmond SportPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · De Graafschap (46%)

De GraafschapPossession control

1 · Helmond Sport 30%X 24%46% De Graafschap · 2

30%

24%

46%

Helmond Sport

Form LDDWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #11xT #18xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Amine Et-TaïbiRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Maik LukowiczFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Noah Ernest Makanza MbelebaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

De Graafschap

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #12xT #3xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

Bouke BoersmaFxG 0.59 · xT 0.03
Nils EggensFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
Ibrahim El KadiriLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.34

Match prediction: Helmond Sport – De Graafschap

Predicted score matrix

De Graafschap →

Helmond Sport →

0–04.2%

0–16.7%

0–26.1%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.4%

1–05.5%

1–110.5%

1–29.0%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.5%

2–04.3%

2–17.5%

2–26.6%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.5%

3–02.1%

3–13.7%

3–23.2%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.7%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,47–1,76

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

–

Over 2,563%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Helmond Sport – De Graafschap

Oscar Nilsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Thirty-nine points for Helmond Sport, sixty-three for De Graafschap. That gap tells a story even before a ball is kicked. De Graafschap have been the more consistent side in the Eerste Divisie, but this is not a foregone conclusion. Helmond Sport's penchant for retaining possession means they won't easily roll over, though their xG tally of 1.1 per match is less than inspiring when stacked against De Graafschap's more robust 1.8.

De Graafschap edges the head-to-head record since 2023, with two wins to Helmond Sport's one, illustrating a slight historical advantage. Yet, Helmond Sport's single victory shouldn't be underestimated, especially given their capability to control the ball. They aren't easily overwhelmed, and a capacity to disrupt De Graafschap's rhythm could keep this clash competitive.

Helmond Sport enters with a slight advantage in expected goals against (xGA), both teams letting in an average of 1.5 goals per match. This statistic might offer a glimmer of hope for Helmond Sport fans expecting a resolute defensive display. However, with expected goals per match favoring De Graafschap at 1.76 to Helmond's 1.47, the visitors hold the potential to outscore their hosts if they hit their stride.

The odds lean towards De Graafschap, with a 46% chance of victory according to model probabilities. The most likely scoreline whispers a 1-1 draw at 11%, but the 1-2 outcome at 9% feels like the more compelling option. Goals seem likely, with a hefty 63% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score marked at 64%.

For those with betting slips lined up, backing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 with Bet365 offers value, as the percentages suggest a goal-fest is more probable than not. If De Graafschap's attack finds its rhythm, this could well be a rewarding afternoon for those chasing goals.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Helmond Sport 1Draw 1De Graafschap 2

Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Helmond Sport

De Graafschap

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Helmond Sport (42–62)

De Graafschap (74–58)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Helmond Sport

De Graafschap

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Helmond Sport

De Graafschap

The teams in numbers

Performance	Helmond Sport	De Graafschap
Points	39	63
xPoints	48.5	53.5
xG per match	1.1	1.8
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.23

Playing style	Helmond Sport	De Graafschap
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.51
xT per match	0.85	1.3
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.35
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	339	377
Passes against per match	363	281
Switches of play per match	23.5	32.5
Long balls per match	37	40

Set pieces	Helmond Sport	De Graafschap
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.08
Corners per match	5.9	6.5
Corners against per match	4.9	5.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.34	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.58

Other	Helmond Sport	De Graafschap
Throw-in control	0.73	0.76

The goalkeepers	Menno Bergsen (Helmond Sport)	Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap)
Saves	93	141
Save %	62%	71%
xG prevented	48%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap according to our model?

The model gives De Graafschap a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helmond Sport 30%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.