Vitesse vs Waalwijk: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie7 August 202618°8 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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VitessePossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Waalwijk (37%)

WaalwijkCounter-attacks & crosses

1 · Vitesse 37%X 26%37% Waalwijk · 2

37%

26%

37%

Vitesse

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #10xT #12xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Adam TahauiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.17
Alexander BüttnerLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
Elias Paul HuthFxG 0.27 · xT 0.02

Waalwijk

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #5xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Jesper UnekenFxG 0.44 · xT 0.04
Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.35
Tim van der LeijFxG 0.73 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Vitesse – Waalwijk

Predicted score matrix

Waalwijk →

Vitesse →

0–04.9%

0–16.8%

0–25.5%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.5%

1–06.8%

1–111.2%

1–28.4%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.4%

2–18.4%

2–26.5%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.8%

3–14.3%

3–23.3%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,53–1,54

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Vitesse – Waalwijk

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

RKC Waalwijk's knack for finding the back of the net — having scored in 22 consecutive league matches — sets a compelling stage for their clash with Vitesse Arnhem. This isn’t merely about consistency; it's about a side whose counter-attacking prowess and proficiency in delivering crosses has been tormenting defenses week in and week out. Despite their relentless attacking ethos, RKC Waalwijk are level with Vitesse Arnhem in probability to win at 37%, with the model leaning towards them, underlining a tension that could boil over into a goal-filled showcase.

Vitesse Arnhem, on the other hand, have shown an adeptness at keeping possession, a style that has occasionally frustrated adversaries into submission. Yet, despite their possession-oriented approach, the statistical scales tip ever so slightly against them. RKC's marginal edge in expected points (57.0 vs 53.9) and xG per match (1.6 vs 1.4) suggests a side more poised to capitalize on the chances they carve out.

Looking at the expected goals, both teams are neck-and-neck, with Vitesse Arnhem at 1.53 and RKC Waalwijk at 1.54. This statistical dead heat, combined with a 59% chance for over 2.5 goals, paints a picture of a match that could easily swing either way on the back of a single breakthrough. The head-to-head since 2023, slightly favouring Vitesse Arnhem with 1 win and 1 draw, hints at their resilience, but RKC's more recent form and attacking threat could very well tip the scales.

RKC Waalwijk's recent form and edge in both points and expected goals make the 1-2 scoreline an enticing proposition. With both teams carrying an equal win probability into this clash, the over 2.5 goals market at 59% looks a solid angle to target. And if you're hunting for value, RKC Waalwijk to win at odds of 2.75 with Bet365 offers a promising return on investment, especially given their recent scoring streak and the model's lean in their favour.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Vitesse 1Draw 1Waalwijk 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

RKC Waalwijk have scored in 22 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vitesse

Waalwijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Vitesse (64–55)

Waalwijk (71–59)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vitesse

Waalwijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vitesse

Waalwijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vitesse	Waalwijk
Points	56	58
xPoints	53.9	57
xG per match	1.4	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.23

Playing style	Vitesse	Waalwijk
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.49	0.53
xT per match	0.98	1.2
xTA per match	0.96	1
Won balls, offensive half	28	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.73
Passes per match	309	362
Passes against per match	370	352
Switches of play per match	24.8	24.6
Long balls per match	34	37

Set pieces	Vitesse	Waalwijk
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.07
Corners per match	4.8	4.8
Corners against per match	4.7	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.61

Other	Vitesse	Waalwijk
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)	Mark Spenkelink (Waalwijk)
Saves	78	98
Save %	73%	64%
xG prevented	60%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vitesse vs Waalwijk according to our model?

The model gives Waalwijk a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitesse 37%, draw 26%, Waalwijk 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.