Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie7 August 202619°4 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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DordrechtPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Dordrecht (59%)

Jong AjaxPossession control

1 · Dordrecht 59%X 21%20% Jong Ajax · 2

59%

21%

20%

Dordrecht

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #15xP/match #7Points #12

Key players

Yannick Fereira EduardoFxG 0.5 · xT 0.03
Nick VenemaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14
Joep van der SluijsLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.04

Jong Ajax

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #11xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06
Enzo CornelisseFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Junior-Morau KadileLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Dordrecht – Jong Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Jong Ajax →

Dordrecht →

0–04.9%

0–14.7%

0–22.7%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–08.9%

1–110.2%

1–25.4%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.9%

2–25.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.1%

3–16.6%

3–23.6%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.8%

4+–15.2%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

1,99–1,09

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Dordrecht – Jong Ajax

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

47 points to 58: that's the real-world gap between Dordrecht and Ajax Amsterdam B, a paradox when juxtaposed with the models and their probabilities. Despite the points table giving Ajax Amsterdam B a clear edge, the sophisticated metrics hint at a different story. Dordrecht, armed with a 59% win probability, seems poised for a home triumph, although the past encounters between these teams suggest a closer affair, with Dordrecht slightly ahead in victories.

Dordrecht, possessing the same xGA per match of 1.4 as their opponents, seems to have mastered the art of containment precisely when Ajax Amsterdam B tends to falter. The head-to-head record since 2023 further supports Dordrecht's slight upper hand, with two wins to Ajax Amsterdam B's one. It's a curious case of the expected not aligning with the tangible. The playing styles of both teams, hinged on possession control, suggest a tactical battle where precision could be sparse.

A scoreline prediction? The model favors 1-1 and 2-1 equally at 10%, but given the xG disparity favoring Dordrecht, a 2-1 result feels more plausible. The expected goals show Dordrecht as more likely to find the net, highlighting Ajax Amsterdam B's vulnerability when it comes to defensive solidity. And with a 59% lean towards over 2.5 goals, this clash promises action in front of the net, despite both teams' penchant for possession.

Ajax Amsterdam B's superior xPoints count of 55.6 compared to Dordrecht's 55.1 is a narrow margin that reflects their slightly better finishing capability. However, Dordrecht's hold in recent head-to-heads and the home advantage makes them the more attractive betting proposition. For those seeking value, Dordrecht's win at odds of 2.50 with Bet365 offers an enticing wager. Beware, though: the numbers often mislead, and the underdogs have proven to bite back.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Dordrecht 2Draw 1Jong Ajax 1

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dordrecht

Jong Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Dordrecht (48–56)

Jong Ajax (50–73)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dordrecht

Jong Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dordrecht

Jong Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dordrecht	Jong Ajax
Points	47	58
xPoints	55.1	55.6
xG per match	1.4	1.5
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.18

Playing style	Dordrecht	Jong Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.46	0.48
xT per match	0.9	0.98
xTA per match	0.98	1
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.33
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.73	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	304	336
Passes against per match	329	369
Switches of play per match	24.7	16.4
Long balls per match	38	32

Set pieces	Dordrecht	Jong Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.04
Corners per match	6	6.9
Corners against per match	5.3	4.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.5

Other	Dordrecht	Jong Ajax
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Celton Anssumane Biai (Dordrecht)	Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax)
Saves	120	96
Save %	70%	76%
xG prevented	53%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Dordrecht a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dordrecht 59%, draw 21%, Jong Ajax 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.