Eerste Divisie21°17 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    DordrechtDordrechtPossession control
    2–1
    Jong AjaxJong AjaxPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Dordrecht (59%)

    Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Dordrecht 59%X 21%20% Jong Ajax · 2

    Analysis: Dordrecht – Jong Ajax

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    47 points to 58: that's the real-world gap between Dordrecht and Ajax Amsterdam B, a paradox when juxtaposed with the models and their probabilities. Despite the points table giving Ajax Amsterdam B a clear edge, the sophisticated metrics hint at a different story. Dordrecht, armed with a 59% win probability, seems poised for a home triumph, although the past encounters between these teams suggest a closer affair, with Dordrecht slightly ahead in victories.

    Dordrecht, possessing the same xGA per match of 1.4 as their opponents, seems to have mastered the art of containment precisely when Ajax Amsterdam B tends to falter. The head-to-head record since 2023 further supports Dordrecht's slight upper hand, with two wins to Ajax Amsterdam B's one. It's a curious case of the expected not aligning with the tangible. The playing styles of both teams, hinged on possession control, suggest a tactical battle where precision could be sparse.

    A scoreline prediction? The model favors 1-1 and 2-1 equally at 10%, but given the xG disparity favoring Dordrecht, a 2-1 result feels more plausible. The expected goals show Dordrecht as more likely to find the net, highlighting Ajax Amsterdam B's vulnerability when it comes to defensive solidity. And with a 59% lean towards over 2.5 goals, this clash promises action in front of the net, despite both teams' penchant for possession.

    Ajax Amsterdam B's superior xPoints count of 55.6 compared to Dordrecht's 55.1 is a narrow margin that reflects their slightly better finishing capability. However, Dordrecht's hold in recent head-to-heads and the home advantage makes them the more attractive betting proposition. For those seeking value, Dordrecht's win at odds of 2.50 with Bet365 offers an enticing wager. Beware, though: the numbers often mislead, and the underdogs have proven to bite back.

    DordrechtDordrecht
    Form LDWLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #15xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Yannick Fereira EduardoFxG 0.50 · xT 0.03
    • Nick VenemaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14
    • Joep van der SluijsLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.04
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    Form LLLWL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #20xP/match #19Points #20
    Key players
    • Don Angelo KonaduFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
    • Abdellah OuazaneFxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
    • Skye VinkFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Dordrecht 59% · Draw 21% · Jong Ajax 20%

    Match prediction: Dordrecht – Jong Ajax

    Predicted score matrix

    Jong Ajax →
    Dordrecht →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–14.7%
    0–22.7%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–110.2%
    1–25.4%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.1%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–06.1%
    3–16.6%
    3–23.6%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–04.8%
    4+–15.2%
    4+–22.8%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    1,99–1,09
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    –
    Over 2,559%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Dordrecht to win59%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Dordrecht to win59%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Nick Venema to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Nick Venema to score29%
    • Jinairo Johnson to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Dordrecht 2Draw 1Jong Ajax 1
    Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 1,2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dordrecht
    Jong Ajax
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Dordrecht (48–56)
    Jong Ajax (50–73)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dordrecht
    Jan Plug: 278 passningar, xT 0.32PlugSem Valk: 195 passningar, xT 0.5ValkCelton Anssumane Biai: 162 passningar, xT 0.16BiaiMichael Gonçalves Pinto: 150 passningar, xT 0.39PintoDaniel Van Vianen: 141 passningar, xT -0.03VianenYannis M'Bemba: 114 passningar, xT 0.08M'BembaLawson Sunderland: 112 passningar, xT 0.02SunderlandDo-Yong Yoon: 73 passningar, xT 0.17YoonRobin van Asten: 72 passningar, xT 0.03AstenNicolás David Rossi Marachlian: 64 passningar, xT 0.31MarachlianJoey de Bie: 55 passningar, xT 0.14Bie
    Jong Ajax
    Marvyn Muzungu: 277 passningar, xT 0.31MuzunguAvery Appiah: 218 passningar, xT 0.35AppiahLucas Jetten: 151 passningar, xT 0.37JettenMark Verkuijl: 145 passningar, xT 0.13VerkuijlJinairo Johnson: 129 passningar, xT 0.08JohnsonAymean El Hani: 116 passningar, xT 0.11HaniAbdellah Ouazane: 113 passningar, xT 0.21OuazaneMohamed Jabou Abdalla: 95 passningar, xT 0.26AbdallaDon Oniel: 89 passningar, xT 0.55OnielEthan Butera: 72 passningar, xT 0.24ButeraSkye Vink: 66 passningar, xT -0.09Vink
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dordrecht
    Jan Plug: 278 passningar, xT 0.32PlugSem Valk: 195 passningar, xT 0.5ValkCelton Anssumane Biai: 162 passningar, xT 0.16BiaiMichael Gonçalves Pinto: 150 passningar, xT 0.39PintoDaniel Van Vianen: 141 passningar, xT -0.03VianenYannis M'Bemba: 114 passningar, xT 0.08M'BembaLawson Sunderland: 112 passningar, xT 0.02SunderlandDo-Yong Yoon: 73 passningar, xT 0.17YoonRobin van Asten: 72 passningar, xT 0.03AstenNicolás David Rossi Marachlian: 64 passningar, xT 0.31MarachlianJoey de Bie: 55 passningar, xT 0.14Bie
    Jong Ajax
    Marvyn Muzungu: 277 passningar, xT 0.31MuzunguAvery Appiah: 218 passningar, xT 0.35AppiahLucas Jetten: 151 passningar, xT 0.37JettenMark Verkuijl: 145 passningar, xT 0.13VerkuijlJinairo Johnson: 129 passningar, xT 0.08JohnsonAymean El Hani: 116 passningar, xT 0.11HaniAbdellah Ouazane: 113 passningar, xT 0.21OuazaneMohamed Jabou Abdalla: 95 passningar, xT 0.26AbdallaDon Oniel: 89 passningar, xT 0.55OnielEthan Butera: 72 passningar, xT 0.24ButeraSkye Vink: 66 passningar, xT -0.09Vink

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDordrechtJong Ajax
    Points4735
    xPoints55.142.1
    xG per match1.41
    xGA per match1.41.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.28
    Playing styleDordrechtJong Ajax
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.460.45
    xT per match0.90.71
    xTA per match0.981.2
    Won balls, offensive half2621
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.320.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.350.32
    Entries into the box per match1211
    Entries into the box against1115
    Pass completion %0.730.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.74
    Passes per match304379
    Passes against per match329341
    Switches of play per match24.729.3
    Long balls per match3837
    Set piecesDordrechtJong Ajax
    xG from free kicks0.110.02
    Corners per match64.3
    Corners against per match5.36.1
    xG per corner0.040.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.320.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.6
    OtherDordrechtJong Ajax
    Throw-in control0.690.71
    The goalkeepersCelton Anssumane Biai (Dordrecht)Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax)
    Saves12096
    Save %70%76%
    xG prevented53%60%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Dordrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jong Ajax
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax according to our model?

    The model gives Dordrecht a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dordrecht 59%, draw 21%, Jong Ajax 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    VitesseVitesse
    1–1
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 37%X 26%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    1–2
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    1 25%X 26%2 49%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.