Eerste Divisie21°12 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Den BoschDen BoschCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–1
    Almere CityAlmere CityPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Almere City (43%)

    Den Bosch vs Almere City · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Den Bosch 33%X 25%43% Almere City · 2

    Analysis: Den Bosch – Almere City

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Twelve consecutive scoring games for both Den Bosch and Almere City FC set the stage for a potentially thrilling encounter. With both teams displaying consistent firepower, it's no surprise the model gives a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals. The expected goals lean towards Almere City FC at 1.74 compared to Den Bosch's 1.51, suggesting a slight upper hand for the visitors in what promises to be a competitive matchup.

    Den Bosch, with their counter-attacking flair and reliance on crosses, have managed to find the net in their last 12 league matches. Despite this, their defensive frailty is evident with an xGA of 1.6, aligning with their profile of a team that often trades goals. Almere City FC, controlling possession more effectively, also boasts a similarly impressive scoring streak and holds a tighter defense with an xGA of 1.4. This defensive edge might be critical, especially against Den Bosch's direct approach.

    Almere City FC is favored by the model with a 43% win probability. Despite Den Bosch's clean sweep in the small two-game head-to-head sample, their form and expected points lag slightly behind Almere City FC. With this context, the most likely scenario points towards a close 1-2 victory for Almere City FC, aligning with both the model probabilities and the scoring trends of recent fixtures.

    The likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net is pegged at 65%, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring affair. While Den Bosch's attacking intent gives them a fighting chance, the slight edge in defensive metrics and overall form makes Almere City FC the more compelling pick.

    For those inclined to place a wager, the real value might lie with Bet365 offering Almere City FC to win at 2.30. Given the form, expected goals, and model's lean, this line holds positive expected value, providing a sharp angle for bettors looking to capitalize on the game's nuances.

    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form WDLDL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #17xT #2xP/match #11Points #10
    Key players
    • Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.34 · xT 0.26
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.44 · xT 0.04
    • Jack Winston De VriesFxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
    Almere CityAlmere City
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #11xP/match #6Points #5
    Key players
    • Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06
    • Enzo CornelisseFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
    • Junior-Morau KadileLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.14
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Den Bosch 33% · Draw 25% · Almere City 43%

    Match prediction: Den Bosch – Almere City

    Predicted score matrix

    Almere City →
    Den Bosch →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.2%
    0–16.5%
    0–25.8%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+2.2%
    1
    1–05.6%
    1–110.5%
    1–28.8%
    1–35.1%
    1–4+3.3%
    2
    2–04.4%
    2–17.7%
    2–26.7%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.5%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–13.9%
    3–23.4%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,51–1,74
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    –
    Over 2,563%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Almere City or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Almere City or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Emanuel Poku to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score19%
    • Mees Laros to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Den Bosch 2Draw 0Almere City 0
    Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Den Bosch have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    • Almere City FC have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Den Bosch
    Almere City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Den Bosch (65–69)
    Almere City (78–63)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Stan Maas: 153 passningar, xT 0.1MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 151 passningar, xT 0.43MerbelMees Laros: 132 passningar, xT 0.62LarosJack Winston De Vries: 120 passningar, xT 0.57VriesJeffry Fortes: 118 passningar, xT 0.05FortesKevin Felida: 102 passningar, xT 0.19FelidaTeun van Grunsven: 93 passningar, xT 0.12GrunsvenSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 81 passningar, xT 0.65BarglanNick de Groot: 76 passningar, xT 0.32GrootIlias Boumassaoudi: 68 passningar, xT 0.11BoumassaoudiThijs van Leeuwen: 58 passningar, xT 0.82Leeuwen
    Almere City
    Boyd Reith: 317 passningar, xT 0.92ReithJames Lawrence: 274 passningar, xT 0.27LawrenceHamza El Dahri: 214 passningar, xT 0.71DahriEmmanuel van de Blaak: 173 passningar, xT 0.56BlaakMilan de Haan: 166 passningar, xT 0.37HaanJonas Wendlinger: 133 passningar, xT 0.47WendlingerTeun Bijleveld: 129 passningar, xT 0.21BijleveldNiko Takahashi Cendagorta: 128 passningar, xT 0.15CendagortaEmanuel Poku: 77 passningar, xT -0.01PokuJoey Jacobs: 71 passningar, xT 0.07JacobsJulian Rijkhoff: 66 passningar, xT 0.33Rijkhoff
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Stan Maas: 153 passningar, xT 0.1MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 151 passningar, xT 0.43MerbelMees Laros: 132 passningar, xT 0.62LarosJack Winston De Vries: 120 passningar, xT 0.57VriesJeffry Fortes: 118 passningar, xT 0.05FortesKevin Felida: 102 passningar, xT 0.19FelidaTeun van Grunsven: 93 passningar, xT 0.12GrunsvenSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 81 passningar, xT 0.65BarglanNick de Groot: 76 passningar, xT 0.32GrootIlias Boumassaoudi: 68 passningar, xT 0.11BoumassaoudiThijs van Leeuwen: 58 passningar, xT 0.82Leeuwen
    Almere City
    Boyd Reith: 317 passningar, xT 0.92ReithJames Lawrence: 274 passningar, xT 0.27LawrenceHamza El Dahri: 214 passningar, xT 0.71DahriEmmanuel van de Blaak: 173 passningar, xT 0.56BlaakMilan de Haan: 166 passningar, xT 0.37HaanJonas Wendlinger: 133 passningar, xT 0.47WendlingerTeun Bijleveld: 129 passningar, xT 0.21BijleveldNiko Takahashi Cendagorta: 128 passningar, xT 0.15CendagortaEmanuel Poku: 77 passningar, xT -0.01PokuJoey Jacobs: 71 passningar, xT 0.07JacobsJulian Rijkhoff: 66 passningar, xT 0.33Rijkhoff

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDen BoschAlmere City
    Points5158
    xPoints52.655.6
    xG per match1.61.5
    xGA per match1.61.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.18
    Playing styleDen BoschAlmere City
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.490.48
    xT per match1.30.98
    xTA per match1.21
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.33
    Entries into the box per match1414
    Entries into the box against1312
    Pass completion %0.740.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.72
    Passes per match304336
    Passes against per match353369
    Switches of play per match21.116.4
    Long balls per match3332
    Set piecesDen BoschAlmere City
    xG from free kicks0.110.04
    Corners per match5.36.9
    Corners against per match6.54.3
    xG per corner0.050.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.580.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.5
    OtherDen BoschAlmere City
    Throw-in control0.730.75
    The goalkeepersPepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)Jonas Wendlinger (Almere City)
    Saves14888
    Save %69%66%
    xG prevented51%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Den Bosch
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Almere City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Den Bosch vs Almere City according to our model?

    The model gives Almere City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Den Bosch 33%, draw 25%, Almere City 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    DordrechtDordrecht
    2–1
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    1 59%X 21%2 20%
    The model called the outcome
    VitesseVitesse
    1–1
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 37%X 26%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.