Eerste Divisie: Predictions, Odds & Tips

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    Model-based predictions for Eerste Divisie — every fixture in the Eerste Divisie is analysed by the same match model that powers PlaymakerAI. Ahead of each round the model computes 1X2 probabilities, a full score matrix, expected goals and over/under lines.

    The predictions are held against live odds, with positive expected value (EV+) flagged where the model's probability beats the implied odds. Played matches are graded openly — hit or miss.

    Upcoming matches

    VitesseVitesse
    vs
    Jong PSVJong PSV
    1 49%X 23%2 28%
    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    vs
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    1 31%X 22%2 46%
    DordrechtDordrecht
    vs
    Almere CityAlmere City
    1 26%X 23%2 50%
    MVV MaastrichtMVV Maastricht
    vs
    Helmond SportHelmond Sport
    1 54%X 26%2 20%
    Soft draw
    RodaRoda
    vs
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 36%X 27%2 37%
    EmmenEmmen
    vs
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    1 68%X 18%2 14%
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    vs
    FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven
    1 69%X 18%2 14%
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    vs
    VitesseVitesse
    1 62%X 21%2 17%
    VolendamVolendam
    vs
    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    1 70%X 17%2 14%
    Soft draw
    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    vs
    Den BoschDen Bosch
    1 37%X 23%2 40%

    League table2026/27

    PosTeamPSW–D–LGF–GAxPxGxGAxGDFTStyle
    1Heracles Almelo1876–0–124–1015,119,76,1+13,669 %Possession control
    2VVV-Venlo1575–0–219–119,511,013,4−2,440 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    3Waalwijk1373–4–018–910,210,47,5+2,962 %Balanced & physical
    4Jong AZ1394–1–422–1713,215,212,7+2,552 %Possession control
    5MVV Maastricht1364–1–110–118,37,07,1−0,154 %Possession control
    6Jong Almere City1254–0–111–36,16,99,6−2,734 %Low block & direct
    7Roda1273–3–17–511,110,08,1+1,941 %Possession control
    8Emmen1274–0–317–1711,013,48,3+5,164 %Possession & high press
    9Jong PSV1283–3–213–1312,913,09,4+3,658 %Possession & high press
    10Vitesse1063–1–210–810,011,08,2+2,859 %Possession & high press
    11FC Eindhoven1073–1–311–138,06,811,5−4,743 %Possession control
    12Volendam973–0–417–1410,214,810,4+4,447 %Possession control
    13Den Bosch973–0–412–169,912,012,6−0,652 %Possession & high press
    14Helmond Sport872–2–313–1210,28,310,8−2,536 %Low block & direct
    15Jong Ajax892–2–513–2210,011,515,5−4,046 %Possession control
    16NAC Breda762–1–311–147,410,78,8+1,968 %Possession & high press
    17Jong Utrecht792–1–615–219,510,417,3−6,938 %Possession control
    18TOP Oss672–0–58–1210,18,911,8−2,931 %Low block & direct
    19De Graafschap461–1–47–185,66,712,5−5,847 %Balanced & physical
    20Dordrecht471–1–59–216,47,613,9−6,357 %Possession control
    21Almere City010–0–11–10,61,61,5+0,154 %Counter-attacks & crosses

    Latest articles

    All articles
    Weekend's bet builders August 21

    2026-08-21 · 5 min

    Weekend's bet builders August 21

    A combo bet contains several outcomes from the same match combined into a single odds, and the five combos highlighted stand out because the market's odds are clearly above the statistically calculated fair odds. Among the highlights are IF Brommapojkarna–Degerfors with a surplus value of 31.7 percent, as well as Lincoln City–Portsmouth, where the xG figures point to a home win despite weak defenses for both teams.

    Ellen's Surprises: value bets late summer 18/8

    2026-08-18 · 3 min

    Ellen's Surprises: value bets late summer 18/8

    The article presents five matches ahead of a football round where the writer identifies odds value by analyzing underlying statistics such as expected goals, goal threat, and playing style rather than relying on the odds line. Among the examples, KAA Gent–Hibernian (2 @ 5.00), Universitatea Craiova–FC Ararat-Armenia (2 @ 6.25), and MVV Maastricht–FC Volendam (1 @ 3.95) are highlighted as matches where the numbers point to surprising outcomes.

    Scouting Report: Ichem Ferrah (Cambuur)

    2026-05-19 · 1 min

    Scouting Report: Ichem Ferrah (Cambuur)

    Ichem Ferrah, 21-year-old winger at Cambuur, is a promising Deep Threat who significantly exceeds the league average with 0.4 expected goals per match and shows strong development potential with his TransferIndex of 0.82. Despite needing to improve his duel strength (32% compared to the league's 50%), purchasing this goal-dangerous attacker is recommended as his physical shortcomings can be addressed with proper training.

    Played matches

    Prediction track record
    FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven
    3–1
    EmmenEmmen
    1 20%X 22%2 58%
    The model missed the outcome
    Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht
    1–3
    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    1 36%X 25%2 39%
    The model called the outcome
    Jong AZJong AZ
    4–1
    VolendamVolendam
    1 35%X 24%2 41%
    The model missed the outcome
    Den BoschDen Bosch
    2–1
    Helmond SportHelmond Sport
    1 61%X 21%2 18%
    The model called the outcome
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    6–1
    MVV MaastrichtMVV Maastricht
    1 46%X 27%2 27%
    The model called the outcome
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    0–0
    RodaRoda
    1 31%X 22%2 47%
    The model missed the outcome
    Jong Almere CityJong Almere City
    1–0
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    1 24%X 20%2 56%
    The model missed the outcome
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    3–0
    DordrechtDordrecht
    1 43%X 24%2 33%
    The model called the outcome
    Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht
    6–1
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    1 38%X 25%2 37%
    The model called the outcome
    Jong PSVJong PSV
    1–1
    Jong AZJong AZ
    1 45%X 24%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    VolendamVolendam
    2–0
    Den BoschDen Bosch
    1 61%X 20%2 19%
    The model called the outcome
    RodaRoda
    1–0
    VitesseVitesse
    1 42%X 26%2 32%
    The model called the outcome

    How the predictions work

    Every prediction comes from PlaymakerAI's match model — the same data platform professional clubs use for scouting and match analysis. The model is trained on event data from hundreds of thousands of matches and weighs over 200 factors per team: strength ratings, current form, playing style, squad player profiles, fixture congestion, travel and even matchday weather.

    For each fixture the model produces a full goal distribution. From it we derive the 1X2 probabilities, the score matrix, expected goals, over/under lines and both-teams-to-score. Predictions are frozen before kickoff and never changed afterwards — once a match finishes we grade it openly, hit or miss.

    Odds are collected continuously from several bookmakers. When the model's probability for an outcome exceeds what the odds imply, we flag it as value (EV+). That is the model's assessment, not a guarantee: even positive-EV bets lose often. Gamble responsibly.

    Eerste Divisie FAQ

    Where do I find Eerste Divisie predictions?

    Right here: every match in the Eerste Divisie has its own analysis with 1X2 probabilities, most likely scoreline, over/under and value against current odds. Pick a match from the upcoming list — predictions are refreshed before every round and graded openly afterwards.

    How are the Eerste Divisie predictions made?

    Each match is replayed thousands of times in the model using hundreds of metrics per team — expected goals, pressing, expected threat, field tilt, form and squad. The output is a probability for every scoreline, which is then compared with bookmaker odds to find value.

    What is the xP table?

    xP means expected points: how many points each team should have taken given the quality of chances created and conceded. The gap between xP and the real table shows which the Eerste Divisie teams are over- and underrated right now.

    Which teams play in Eerste Divisie 2026/27?

    Eerste Divisie 2026/27 has 21 teams: Heracles Almelo, VVV-Venlo, Waalwijk, Jong AZ, MVV Maastricht, Jong Almere City, Roda, Emmen, Jong PSV, Vitesse, FC Eindhoven, Volendam, Den Bosch, Helmond Sport, Jong Ajax, NAC Breda, Jong Utrecht, TOP Oss, De Graafschap, Dordrecht, Almere City.

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.