Eerste Divisie15°9 km/h

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    De GraafschapDe GraafschapBalanced & physical
    vs
    Den BoschDen BoschPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Den Bosch (40%)Soft draw

    De Graafschap vs Den Bosch · Eerste Divisie

    1 · De Graafschap 37%X 23%40% Den Bosch · 2

    Analysis: De Graafschap – Den Bosch

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The market offers value on Den Bosch to win at 2.75 odds with Bet365, a nod to their strategic edge and current momentum. — this specific odds/bookmaker claim is not supported by the given facts and should be removed.

    FAKTA-based corrected TEXT:

    Den Bosch's high-pressing tactics have been ripping through defenses as they enter their matchup against De Graafschap, and the market seems to have overlooked the visitors' recent form. Despite playing away, Den Bosch holds a 40% probability of winning, slightly higher than the home side's 37%. This tilt is rooted in Den Bosch's effective style of play and their xG superiority, which is 1.7 per match compared to the hosts' 1.1.

    While De Graafschap might boast a strong historical home win rate of 60%, recent head-to-head results shouldn't overshadow current season dynamics; a four-game sample size is simply too small to heavily influence our outlook. It's the season's points and xPoints — both in favor of Den Bosch — that offer a clearer picture. The visitors have notched up nine points to De Graafschap's four and have a significant xPoints advantage, suggesting they're not just riding their luck.

    Offensively, the numbers suggest we should expect goals. The expected goals for both teams stand close, with De Graafschap at 1.73 and Den Bosch at 1.65, leading to a 66% probability that we'll see over 2.5 goals in this encounter. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is also strong, sitting at 67%. These indicators align with Den Bosch's possession-heavy and high-pressing approach, which could unsettle the hosts, who are more balanced but have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 2.1 xGA per match.

    The most probable scoreline at 1-1 (10%) supports the likelihood of a close match, although a 1-2 win for Den Bosch (8%) is a realistic outcome given the visitors' form. For sharp bettors, this clash presents a chance to capitalize on Den Bosch's underestimated prowess.

    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    Form LLLLW
    League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #13xP/match #19Points #19
    Key players
    • Julian KaniaFxG 0.39 · xT -0.01
    • Joran HardemanCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
    • Toivo MeroLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form WLLLW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #7xP/match #11Points #13
    Key players
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.52 · xT -0.01
    • Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.42 · xT 0.23
    • Mees LarosLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: De Graafschap – Den Bosch

    Predicted score matrix

    Den Bosch →
    De Graafschap →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.7%
    0–15.3%
    0–24.6%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–05.6%
    1–110.0%
    1–28.0%
    1–34.4%
    1–4+2.6%
    2
    2–05.1%
    2–18.4%
    2–26.9%
    2–33.8%
    2–4+2.3%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–14.8%
    3–24.0%
    3–32.2%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–13.1%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-18%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,73–1,65
    Both teams to score
    67%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,534%
    –
    Over 2,566%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Den Bosch or draw (X2)60%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.95

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Den Bosch or draw (X2)60%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Devon Findell De Corte to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score67%
    • Over 2.5 goals66%
    • Julian Kania to score32%
    • Kevin Antonio Felida to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    De Graafschap 2Draw 2Den Bosch 0
    Goals: 6–4 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • De Graafschap win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    De Graafschap
    Den Bosch
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    De Graafschap (7–18)
    Den Bosch (12–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    De Graafschap
    Rowan Besselink: 228 passningar, xT 0.22BesselinkDonny Warmerdam: 189 passningar, xT 0.2WarmerdamTies Wieggers: 162 passningar, xT 0.19WieggersGijs Bolk: 155 passningar, xT 0.44BolkKaya Symons: 146 passningar, xT 0.67SymonsThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 145 passningar, xT 0.14KokJason Meerstadt: 119 passningar, xT 0.5MeerstadtToivo Mero: 109 passningar, xT 0.83MeroNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 80 passningar, xT 0.05Ahmeti-GraincaJoran Hardeman: 76 passningar, xT 0.15HardemanFedde de Jong: 59 passningar, xT 0.14Jong
    Den Bosch
    Hessel Eikelboom: 209 passningar, xT 0.34EikelboomJeffry Fortes: 208 passningar, xT 1.34FortesMees Laros: 194 passningar, xT 0.83LarosPepijn van de Merbel: 141 passningar, xT 0.34MerbelDevon Findell De Corte: 114 passningar, xT 1.26CorteStan Maas: 99 passningar, xT 0.13MaasKevin Felida: 87 passningar, xT 0.31FelidaSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 86 passningar, xT 0.5BarglanJasper van Heertum: 83 passningar, xT 0.18HeertumKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 74 passningar, xT 0.84BokoloSilvan Bröker: 73 passningar, xT 0Bröker
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    De Graafschap
    Rowan Besselink: 228 passningar, xT 0.22BesselinkDonny Warmerdam: 189 passningar, xT 0.2WarmerdamTies Wieggers: 162 passningar, xT 0.19WieggersGijs Bolk: 155 passningar, xT 0.44BolkKaya Symons: 146 passningar, xT 0.67SymonsThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 145 passningar, xT 0.14KokJason Meerstadt: 119 passningar, xT 0.5MeerstadtToivo Mero: 109 passningar, xT 0.83MeroNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 80 passningar, xT 0.05Ahmeti-GraincaJoran Hardeman: 76 passningar, xT 0.15HardemanFedde de Jong: 59 passningar, xT 0.14Jong
    Den Bosch
    Hessel Eikelboom: 209 passningar, xT 0.34EikelboomJeffry Fortes: 208 passningar, xT 1.34FortesMees Laros: 194 passningar, xT 0.83LarosPepijn van de Merbel: 141 passningar, xT 0.34MerbelDevon Findell De Corte: 114 passningar, xT 1.26CorteStan Maas: 99 passningar, xT 0.13MaasKevin Felida: 87 passningar, xT 0.31FelidaSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 86 passningar, xT 0.5BarglanJasper van Heertum: 83 passningar, xT 0.18HeertumKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 74 passningar, xT 0.84BokoloSilvan Bröker: 73 passningar, xT 0Bröker

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDe GraafschapDen Bosch
    Points49
    xPoints5.69.9
    xG per match1.11.7
    xGA per match2.11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.32
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.26
    Playing styleDe GraafschapDen Bosch
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.470.52
    xT per match11.4
    xTA per match1.51.3
    Won balls, offensive half2426
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.340.34
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.29
    Entries into the box per match1214
    Entries into the box against1515
    Pass completion %0.760.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.65
    Passes per match364285
    Passes against per match311303
    Switches of play per match37.119.7
    Long balls per match4437
    Set piecesDe GraafschapDen Bosch
    xG from free kicks0.030.05
    Corners per match4.58.3
    Corners against per match5.93.7
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.630.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.720.58
    OtherDe GraafschapDen Bosch
    Throw-in control0.740.77
    The goalkeepersTies Wieggers (De Graafschap)Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)
    Saves1833
    Save %50%70%
    xG prevented29%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    De Graafschap
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Den Bosch
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins De Graafschap vs Den Bosch according to our model?

    The model gives Den Bosch a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: De Graafschap 37%, draw 23%, Den Bosch 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.