Roda vs Waalwijk: Prediction & Odds (26 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie26 September 202616°10 km/h

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RodaPossession control

WaalwijkPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Waalwijk (37%)Soft draw

1 · Roda 36%X 27%37% Waalwijk · 2

36%

27%

37%

Analysis: Roda – Waalwijk

Anna Karlsson · 18 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Roda and Waalwijk are neck-and-neck, with probabilities giving a slight edge to the visitors at 37% compared to the hosts' 36%. Yet, Roda's unbeaten run over five matches offers a strong counter-narrative against Waalwijk's own seven-match streak without a loss. The model's numbers suggest a tight contest where both sides are expected to find the net, with a 61% likelihood of both teams scoring and a 58% chance of surpassing 2.5 total goals.

Interestingly, while Roda holds a marginal points lead and slightly better xPoints, Waalwijk's relentless scoring in 28 consecutive league fixtures paints a picture of consistency and threat upfront. The head-to-head record, given its small sample size of just two encounters, loses weight compared to more substantive metrics like expected goals and style of play. Roda's possession control faces the challenge of Waalwijk's possession and high-press approach, potentially tilting the field slightly in favor of the visitors if they can disrupt effectively.

Considering the probabilities and xG figures, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most plausible outcome, though the slight lean towards Waalwijk suggests a potential 1-2 scoreline. For those eyeing value, RKC Waalwijk's model lean and their remarkable scoring consistency make them the sharper angle to consider.

Roda

Form WWDDW

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #13xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Joshua NisbetLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
Lucas BeertenCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Mitchel PaulissenRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

Waalwijk

Form DDDWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #3xT #4xP/match #14Points #7

Key players

Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.39
Finn StokkersFxG 0.56 · xT -0.03
Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Roda – Waalwijk

Predicted score matrix

Waalwijk →

Roda →

0–05.3%

0–17.0%

0–25.3%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.4%

1–111.6%

1–28.2%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.9%

2–18.6%

2–26.3%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.0%

3–14.4%

3–23.2%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,53–1,46

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Waalwijk or draw (X2)61%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Waalwijk or draw (X2)61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Jesse van de Haar to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score26%
Loek Postma to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Roda 1Draw 0Waalwijk 1

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

Roda JC Kerkrade are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
RKC Waalwijk are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
RKC Waalwijk have scored in 28 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Roda

Waalwijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Roda (7–5)

Waalwijk (12–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Roda

Waalwijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Roda

Waalwijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Roda	Waalwijk
Points	11	10
xPoints	10.1	7.6
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.33

Playing style	Roda	Waalwijk
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.41	0.64
xT per match	1.1	1.6
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	20
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	355	372
Passes against per match	352	327
Switches of play per match	20.1	27.3
Long balls per match	31	38

Set pieces	Roda	Waalwijk
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.07
Corners per match	4.5	3.7
Corners against per match	3.5	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.69

Other	Roda	Waalwijk
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Justin Treichel (Roda)	Niek Schiks (Waalwijk)
Saves	22	19
Save %	85%	70%
xG prevented	71%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Roda

Fixtures, form & tips

Waalwijk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Roda vs Waalwijk according to our model?

The model gives Waalwijk a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roda 36%, draw 27%, Waalwijk 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.