01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Almere City to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Eerste Divisie15°15 km/h
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DordrechtPossession controlvs
Almere CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Almere City (50%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.95 (+20 %)
Dordrecht vs Almere City · Eerste Divisie
1 · Dordrecht 26%X 23%50% Almere City · 2
26%
23%
50%
Analysis: Dordrecht – Almere City
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Dordrecht's possession-based approach will clash against the direct style of Almere City FC, and this contrast is central to predicting the flow of the game. The visitors thrive on a low defensive block, aiming to exploit transitions with rapid counter-attacks. Meanwhile, Dordrecht will seek to dominate the ball, though their recent form—a streak of four consecutive losses—suggests vulnerability when possession doesn't translate into concrete chances.
Despite Dordrecht's struggles, there's a slight anomaly in their underlying numbers. Their xPoints of 5.9 slightly outstrip the visitors’ 5.7, indicating they've perhaps been a touch unlucky in converting control into results. Yet, Almere City FC's higher xG per match, sitting at 1.6 compared to Dordrecht's 1.1, underscores the visitors' efficiency in creating goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing why they stand at 9 points in the current season versus Dordrecht's 4.
Defensive frailty haunts the hosts, evidenced by their alarming xGA of 2.0. Almere City FC shows more resilience with an xGA of 1.6, giving them the edge in resisting opposition attacks. This defensive solidity, combined with their lethal counter-attacks, aligns with the model's probabilities favoring the visitors at 50%. While the most likely scoreline remains a 1-1 draw at 11%, both the 1-2 and 2-1 outcomes are not far behind, hinting at a potentially narrow victory for the visitors.
In betting terms, the over 2.5 goals market at 59% aligns well with these dynamics, suggesting a game where goals will not be scarce, especially given the high probability of both teams finding the net. Expect Almere City FC to capitalize on Dordrecht's defensive lapses, with a 2-1 away win a plausible scenario.
DordrechtForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #20xT #12xP/match #20Points #18
Key players
- Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
- Sem ValkCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
- Martin VetkalFxG 0.17 · xT 0.03
Almere CityForm WWWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #8xP/match #9Points #11
Key players
- Emanuel PokuFxG 0.17 · xT 0.20
- Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.70 · xT 0.16
- Enzo CornelisseCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.30
Match prediction: Dordrecht – Almere City
Predicted score matrix
Almere City →
Dordrecht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–17.3%
0–26.3%
0–33.5%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–06.3%
1–111.2%
1–29.0%
1–34.9%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.7%
2–17.7%
2–26.4%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.7%
3–23.0%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,42–1,65
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.95EV+20%
Over 2,559%
@1.37
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Almere City to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ferdy Druijf to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Dario Šits to score21%
- Mees Hoedemakers to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.541% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.95BetssonEV+20%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dordrecht | X | 2 · Almere City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.95 | 3.60 | EV+ 6% 2.12 |
| Betsson | 2.95 | 3.60 | EV+ 6% 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | 2.95 | 3.60 | EV+ 6% 2.12 |
Odds updated 19 Sept, 13:37
Odds movement
1-3 %
33 %28 %
3.05 → 2.95
X-6 %
27 %22 %
3.85 → 3.60
2+5 %
47 %42 %
2.02 → 2.12
Over 2,50 %
71 %66 %
1.37 → 1.37
Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Dordrecht have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dordrecht
Almere City
Dordrecht (9–18)
Almere City (10–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dordrecht
Almere City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dordrecht
Almere City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dordrecht | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 9 |
| xPoints | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Dordrecht | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 358 | 249 |
| Passes against per match | 301 | 395 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.2 | 21.2 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Dordrecht | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| Other | Dordrecht | Almere City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht) | Wessel Speel (Almere City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 18 |
| Save % | 61% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 76% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dordrecht vs Almere City according to our model?
The model gives Almere City a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dordrecht 26%, draw 23%, Almere City 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.