01 · 2 legs
Safe
- NAC Breda to win69%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Eerste Divisie16°1,8 mm9 km/h
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NAC BredaPossession & high pressvs
FC EindhovenPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · NAC Breda (69%)
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven · Eerste Divisie
1 · NAC Breda 69%X 18%14% FC Eindhoven · 2
69%
18%
14%
Analysis: NAC Breda – FC Eindhoven
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The TEXT contains unsupported claims not present in the FACTS: the venue "Rat Verlegh Stadion," the specific opponent name "FC Eindhoven," and the betting odds "Unibet offers NAC Breda at 1.50." These should be removed as they are not supported by the given data.
Corrected TEXT:
With a 69% win probability favoring NAC Breda, the numbers suggest a strong preference for the hosts. The model leans decisively toward Breda, who have shown a pronounced edge in expected goals (xG), generating nearly double per match compared to their opponents, Eindhoven. This offensive capability is underpinned by their high press and possession-focused strategy, allowing them to create 0.28 xG within eight seconds of winning the ball—a clear advantage over Eindhoven’s more measured possession control.
While NAC Breda’s expected goals against (xGA) sits at 1.5, slightly better than Eindhoven’s 1.7, the defensive edge is modest. This suggests that Eindhoven might find opportunities on the break, but they are likely to be limited in number given their lower xG per match of 0.97. The most likely scorelines reflect this disparity, with NAC Breda favored to win 2-0 or 2-1. Yet, there is still a 54% probability that both teams might find the back of the net, suggesting Eindhoven could sneak in a goal amidst Breda's dominance.
The historical data between these teams is sparse, making the current form and xG metrics more reliable indicators of the upcoming match’s trajectory. NAC Breda's possession and pressing are likely to keep Eindhoven on the back foot, with the visitors struggling to maintain the ball long enough to create significant threats. The most compelling storyline here is whether Eindhoven can withstand the relentless pressure and find space to counter effectively.
Given the over 2.5 goals probability at 62%, the match is expected to hit three goals or more, with Breda likely doing most of the scoring. Embrace the numbers: Breda's chances look solid, and their tactical approach should dominate.
NAC BredaForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #6xP/match #15Points #13
Key players
- Paul GladonFxG 0.74 · xT 0.07
- Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
- Cherrion ValeriusRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
FC EindhovenForm LLLDW
League ranking xG #21xGA #14xT #21xP/match #16Points #15
Key players
- Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
- Guus BeaumontCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
- Mika de JongeCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: NAC Breda – FC Eindhoven
Predicted score matrix
FC Eindhoven →
NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.3%
0–13.5%
0–21.7%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–09.0%
1–18.8%
1–23.9%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–010.6%
2–19.7%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–08.0%
3–17.4%
3–23.4%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–07.8%
4+–17.2%
4+–23.3%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,28–0,92
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
–
Over 2,562%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- NAC Breda to win69%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Paul Gladon to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Paul Gladon to score35%
- Hyman Ali to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
NAC Breda
FC Eindhoven
NAC Breda (11–14)
FC Eindhoven (8–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
FC Eindhoven
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
FC Eindhoven
The teams in numbers
| Performance | NAC Breda | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 7 |
| xPoints | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 0.97 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | NAC Breda | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.68 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 417 | 289 |
| Passes against per match | 263 | 348 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.5 | 17.7 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 36 |
| Set pieces | NAC Breda | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.6 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| Other | NAC Breda | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda) | Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 19 |
| Save % | 57% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 25% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven according to our model?
The model gives NAC Breda a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NAC Breda 69%, draw 18%, FC Eindhoven 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.