Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse: Prediction & Odds (26 Sept 2026)

Eerste Divisie26 September 202615°3,0 mm10 km/h

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Heracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses

VitessePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Heracles Almelo (62%)

1 · Heracles Almelo 62%X 21%17% Vitesse · 2

62%

21%

17%

Analysis: Heracles Almelo – Vitesse

Anna Karlsson · 18 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Six straight wins set the tone for Heracles Almelo's dominance coming into their clash against Vitesse. This streak underscores their current form and confidence, pivotal factors that favor the hosts as they prepare to extend their winning run. With a 62% model probability tipping in their favor, Heracles not only hold statistical superiority but also a psychological edge, further buoyed by their formidable attacking metrics.

Heracles' counter-attacking style, coupled with their penchant for crosses, aligns seamlessly with Vitesse's vulnerabilities. The visitors' possession-based approach may struggle against Heracles' efficient use of space and quick transitions. The expected goals model is clear: Heracles projects at 2.38 to Vitesse's 1.23, reflecting a stark contrast in offensive potency. Meanwhile, with Vitesse's high press potentially leaving gaps, an over 2.5 goals likelihood at 70% seems well-founded, suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities.

Heracles Almelo's chances of securing victory look strong given the model's lean. While no bet comes without risk, the combination of Heracles' form and Vitesse's less commanding presence this season skews heavily in favor of a home win. Expect Heracles to edge out a 2-1 victory, with both teams likely finding the net.

Heracles Almelo

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #3xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Jean-Paul N'djoliLWxG 0.81 · xT 0.17
David Vicente RoblesRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Max HauswirthLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.07

Vitesse

Form WLWWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #5xP/match #3Points #9

Key players

Naoufal BannisFxG 0.77 · xT -0.04
Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.31
Ayman SelloufFxG 0.14 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Heracles Almelo – Vitesse

Predicted score matrix

Vitesse →

Heracles Almelo →

0–02.9%

0–13.1%

0–22.0%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–06.2%

1–18.1%

1–24.9%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.7%

2–19.4%

2–25.8%

2–32.4%

2–4+0.9%

3–06.1%

3–17.5%

3–24.6%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.8%

4+–06.4%

4+–17.8%

4+–24.8%

4+–32.0%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.1-18%
3.2-08%
4.3-17%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

2,38–1,23

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

–

Over 2,570%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Heracles Almelo to win62%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Heracles Almelo to win62%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Jean-Paul N'djoli to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Jean-Paul N'djoli to score35%
Mathijs Marschalk to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

Heracles Almelo come into this round on 6 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heracles Almelo

Vitesse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heracles Almelo (24–9)

Vitesse (10–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heracles Almelo

Vitesse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heracles Almelo

Vitesse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heracles Almelo	Vitesse
Points	18	10
xPoints	12.7	10
xG per match	2.8	1.8
xGA per match	0.95	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.22

Playing style	Heracles Almelo	Vitesse
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.68	0.59
xT per match	1.7	1.5
xTA per match	0.87	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	33	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.32
Entries into the box per match	15	16
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	330	343
Passes against per match	263	321
Switches of play per match	21.7	31.4
Long balls per match	38	38

Set pieces	Heracles Almelo	Vitesse
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.06
Corners per match	7.6	5
Corners against per match	3.5	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.48	0.66

Other	Heracles Almelo	Vitesse
Throw-in control	0.76	0.74

The goalkeepers	Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)
Saves	14	14
Save %	61%	82%
xG prevented	35%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heracles Almelo

Fixtures, form & tips

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse according to our model?

The model gives Heracles Almelo a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heracles Almelo 62%, draw 21%, Vitesse 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.