Eerste Divisie16°2,4 mm13 km/h

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    EmmenEmmenPossession & high press
    vs
    TOP OssTOP OssLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Emmen (68%)

    Emmen vs TOP Oss · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Emmen 68%X 18%14% TOP Oss · 2

    Analysis: Emmen – TOP Oss

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Emmen holds a recent edge over TOP Oss with a small sample of four head-to-head matches since 2023, winning two and drawing one. However, these encounters don't tell the whole story about their current forms. The home side has collected 12 points this season, while the visitors have managed just 3, making Emmen the clear favorite with a 68% win probability.

    Digging deeper, Emmen's playing style—possession-based with a high press—matches up well against TOP Oss's more defensive, direct approach. The expected goals (xG) metrics further highlight Emmen's dominance: 2.56 xG compared to Oss's 0.92. This differential suggests a likely scoreline in the neighborhood of 2-0 or 3-0 for the hosts, which aligns with the most probable outcomes modeled.

    While the over 2.5 goals market sits at 68%, there's a note of caution: the visitors' strategy could stifle the game, particularly if they sit deep and absorb pressure. Yet, the model still favors goals, driven by Emmen's attacking prowess and the visitors' vulnerability, evidenced by their 1.8 xGA per match.

    Given Emmen's strong position, both in the table and in expected metrics, this match leans heavily their way, with a likely over 2.5 goals outcome to boot.

    EmmenEmmen
    Form WWLWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #2xP/match #7Points #4
    Key players
    • Jack Cooper-LoveFxG 0.67 · xT 0.02
    • Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
    • Bryan Albert Van HoveLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.26
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #15xP/match #13Points #20
    Key players
    • Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
    • Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
    • Maurilio de LannoyFxG 0.19 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Emmen – TOP Oss

    Predicted score matrix

    TOP Oss →
    Emmen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.3%
    0–12.6%
    0–21.3%
    0–30.4%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–07.7%
    1–17.5%
    1–23.3%
    1–31.0%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–010.1%
    2–19.3%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–08.7%
    3–17.9%
    3–23.6%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–010.2%
    4+–19.4%
    4+–24.3%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.3-09%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    2,56–0,92
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    –
    Over 2,568%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Emmen to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    65%

    Fair odds

    1.54

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Emmen to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Freddy Quispel to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Freddy Quispel to score35%
    • Julian Kuijpers to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Emmen 2Draw 1TOP Oss 1
    Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Emmen
    TOP Oss
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Emmen (16–14)
    TOP Oss (5–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Emmen
    Yanis Dede-Lhomme: 270 passningar, xT 1.69Dede-LhommeJoshua Mukeh: 262 passningar, xT 0.48MukehLuca Everink: 244 passningar, xT 0.97EverinkCasper Staring: 218 passningar, xT 0.82StaringBryan Albert Van Hove: 191 passningar, xT 1.03HoveMichael John Breij: 178 passningar, xT 0.87BreijSam Karssies: 136 passningar, xT 0.34KarssiesFreddy Quispel: 102 passningar, xT 0.23QuispelAlessandro Feridun Hojabrpour: 92 passningar, xT 0.23HojabrpourSybrand Veldhuis: 66 passningar, xT 0.42VeldhuisMustafa Abdullatif: 59 passningar, xT 0.52Abdullatif
    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 190 passningar, xT 0.4VianelloMike Havekotte: 144 passningar, xT 0.27HavekotteIlounga Isea Pata: 143 passningar, xT 1PataJulian Kuijpers: 132 passningar, xT 0.7KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 107 passningar, xT 0.1MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 83 passningar, xT 0.08EsajasRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 73 passningar, xT 0.09VenneMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 67 passningar, xT 0.5HinokeMaurilio de Lannoy: 56 passningar, xT 0.28LannoyMert Erkan: 36 passningar, xT 0.56ErkanJustin Mathieu: 32 passningar, xT 0.08Mathieu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Emmen
    Yanis Dede-Lhomme: 270 passningar, xT 1.69Dede-LhommeJoshua Mukeh: 262 passningar, xT 0.48MukehLuca Everink: 244 passningar, xT 0.97EverinkCasper Staring: 218 passningar, xT 0.82StaringBryan Albert Van Hove: 191 passningar, xT 1.03HoveMichael John Breij: 178 passningar, xT 0.87BreijSam Karssies: 136 passningar, xT 0.34KarssiesFreddy Quispel: 102 passningar, xT 0.23QuispelAlessandro Feridun Hojabrpour: 92 passningar, xT 0.23HojabrpourSybrand Veldhuis: 66 passningar, xT 0.42VeldhuisMustafa Abdullatif: 59 passningar, xT 0.52Abdullatif
    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 190 passningar, xT 0.4VianelloMike Havekotte: 144 passningar, xT 0.27HavekotteIlounga Isea Pata: 143 passningar, xT 1PataJulian Kuijpers: 132 passningar, xT 0.7KuijpersLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 107 passningar, xT 0.1MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 83 passningar, xT 0.08EsajasRichard Johannes Cornelis van der Venne: 73 passningar, xT 0.09VenneMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 67 passningar, xT 0.5HinokeMaurilio de Lannoy: 56 passningar, xT 0.28LannoyMert Erkan: 36 passningar, xT 0.56ErkanJustin Mathieu: 32 passningar, xT 0.08Mathieu

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceEmmenTOP Oss
    Points123
    xPoints9.57.7
    xG per match21.2
    xGA per match1.21.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.10.21
    Playing styleEmmenTOP Oss
    Build-up efficiency0.340.31
    Field tilt0.650.34
    xT per match1.71
    xTA per match0.951.5
    Won balls, offensive half2723
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.330.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.320.23
    Entries into the box per match2112
    Entries into the box against918
    Pass completion %0.780.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.6
    Passes per match384240
    Passes against per match315439
    Switches of play per match23.226.6
    Long balls per match2843
    Set piecesEmmenTOP Oss
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match6.64.9
    Corners against per match2.87.2
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.650.67
    OtherEmmenTOP Oss
    Throw-in control0.770.68
    The goalkeepersSam Karssies (Emmen)Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss)
    Saves1619
    Save %53%66%
    xG prevented35%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Emmen
    Fixtures, form & tips
    TOP Oss
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Emmen vs TOP Oss according to our model?

    The model gives Emmen a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Emmen 68%, draw 18%, TOP Oss 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.