01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Volendam to win70%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
Eerste Divisie17°2,4 mm13 km/h
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VolendamPossession controlvs
VVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Volendam (70%)
Volendam vs VVV-Venlo · Eerste Divisie
1 · Volendam 70%X 17%14% VVV-Venlo · 2
70%
17%
14%
Analysis: Volendam – VVV-Venlo
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
With a commanding possession style, Volendam's approach at home has been notably effective, winning 82% of their matches in front of their own fans all-time (22 played). This impressive home record suggests they are well-equipped to handle a VVV Venlo side that relies heavily on counterattacks and crosses. The hosts' ability to control matches is further underscored by their expected goals (xG) rate of 2.3 per match, significantly higher than the visitors' 1.5.
Despite a small head-to-head sample, where both teams share a win each, Volendam's overall form and underlying numbers offer a more compelling narrative. The model gives them a 70% probability of winning this match. Meanwhile, the expected goals against (xGA) further highlight Volendam's defensive solidity, allowing only 1.2 per match compared to VVV Venlo's more porous 1.9. The statistical edge in xPoints also tips in favor of the hosts, with Volendam boasting 9.9 over the visitors' 7.9.
The most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 for Volendam reflect their capability to both score and defend effectively. With an expected goals tally of 2.64 for the home side, a scoring output of two or more seems probable. The model's 71% lean toward over 2.5 goals is consistent with these projections. However, given VVV's playing style, there's still a 60% chance both teams find the net, hinting at potential gaps in Volendam's defense that the visitors could exploit.
A straightforward yet rewarding angle lies with Volendam's victory. Pinnacle offers odds of 1.65, aligning closely with the model's assessment and providing value for bettors seeking a stable, well-supported outcome. While potential for action exists, the analysis firmly points to a Volendam win as the smart play.
VolendamForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #9xP/match #4Points #10
Key players
- Henk VeermanFxG 0.80 · xT 0.11
- Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Precious Joel Uche-Chukwu UgwuRWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.09
VVV-VenloForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #19xT #18xP/match #12Points #3
Key players
- Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
- Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.30
- Lars de BlokLWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Volendam – VVV-Venlo
Predicted score matrix
VVV-Venlo →
Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.7%
0–12.4%
0–21.4%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–06.5%
1–17.1%
1–23.6%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.1%
2–24.7%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.8%
3–18.1%
3–24.2%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–09.7%
4+–110.1%
4+–25.2%
4+–31.8%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.2-09%
- 3.3-18%
- 4.3-08%
- 5.1-17%
Expected goals
2,64–1,04
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,70
19%
217%
321%
419%
5+31%
Under 2,529%
–
Over 2,571%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Volendam to win70%
- Over 2.5 goals71%
- Henk Veerman to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals71%
- Henk Veerman to score30%
- Éanna Clancy to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVolendam 1Draw 0VVV-Venlo 1
Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Volendam win 82% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Volendam
VVV-Venlo
Volendam (16–10)
VVV-Venlo (16–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Volendam
VVV-Venlo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Volendam
VVV-Venlo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Volendam | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 12 |
| xPoints | 9.9 | 7.9 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Volendam | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 352 | 300 |
| Passes against per match | 322 | 366 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.8 | 23.3 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Volendam | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.58 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| Other | Volendam | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Roy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam) | Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 22 |
| Save % | 67% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Volendam vs VVV-Venlo according to our model?
The model gives Volendam a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volendam 70%, draw 17%, VVV-Venlo 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.