Eerste Divisie18°0,2 mm24 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    De GraafschapDe GraafschapBalanced & physical
    vs
    NAC BredaNAC BredaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · NAC Breda (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.20 (+13 %)

    De Graafschap vs NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

    1 · De Graafschap 31%X 22%46% NAC Breda · 2

    Analysis: De Graafschap – NAC Breda

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The model gives NAC Breda a 46% chance of victory, indicating an edge over De Graafschap. Despite the hosts' historical home advantage, winning 60% of their games, the current numbers tilt towards the visitors. NAC Breda's superior xPoints, 7.4 compared to De Graafschap's 5.6, suggests they are converting their chances more effectively. The expected goals (xG) further reinforce this, with NAC Breda at 1.8 per game, while De Graafschap lags behind at 1.1.

    The most probable scorelines of 1-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%) underscore a close contest, though the likelihood of NAC Breda netting an additional goal shouldn't be overlooked. Both teams are expected to score, with a 66% probability, reflecting their offensive tendencies. The hosts' more physical and balanced style could counter the visitors' possession-based, high-press approach, but it may not be enough to tilt the game in their favor.

    Interestingly, while the model suggests a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals, there's notable value in backing the under. At odds of 3.2 available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the under 2.5 option offers a 13% edge over the bookies' assessment. This anomaly likely arises from an overestimation of both sides' attacking output relative to their defensive resilience.

    Given the numbers, a 1-2 victory for NAC Breda emerges as a reasonable expectation. However, with the statistical lean towards over 2.5 goals in the market, the under presents a compelling value play. If the match unfolds more conservatively than anticipated, the under bet at 3.2 odds could yield a handsome return.

    De GraafschapDe Graafschap
    Form LLLLW
    League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #13xP/match #19Points #19
    Key players
    • Julian KaniaFxG 0.39 · xT -0.01
    • Joran HardemanCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
    • Toivo MeroLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    Form LWDLL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #6xP/match #14Points #16
    Key players
    • Paul GladonFxG 0.74 · xT 0.07
    • Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
    • Cherrion ValeriusRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: De Graafschap – NAC Breda

    Predicted score matrix

    NAC Breda →
    De Graafschap →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.9%
    0–16.0%
    0–25.5%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+2.1%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–110.2%
    1–28.7%
    1–35.0%
    1–4+3.3%
    2
    2–04.5%
    2–17.8%
    2–26.8%
    2–34.0%
    2–4+2.6%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–14.1%
    3–23.6%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.4%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,58–1,75
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @3.20EV+13%
    Over 2,565%
    @1.32

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • NAC Breda to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • NAC Breda to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Paul Gladon to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Julian Kania to score27%
    • Jan Van den Bergh to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.535% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 2.535% probability@3.20BetssonEV+13%reference odds
    • Under 2.535% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · De GraafschapX2 · NAC Breda
    Betsafe
    EV+ 5%
    3.35    		3.851.92
    Betsson
    EV+ 5%
    3.35    		3.851.92
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 5%
    3.35    		3.851.92

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    30 %25 %

    3.35 → 3.35

    X0 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.85

    20 %
    51 %46 %

    1.92 → 1.92

    Over 2,50 %
    73 %68 %

    1.32 → 1.32

    Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • De Graafschap win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    De Graafschap
    NAC Breda
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    De Graafschap (7–18)
    NAC Breda (11–14)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    De Graafschap
    Rowan Besselink: 228 passningar, xT 0.22BesselinkDonny Warmerdam: 189 passningar, xT 0.2WarmerdamTies Wieggers: 162 passningar, xT 0.19WieggersGijs Bolk: 155 passningar, xT 0.44BolkKaya Symons: 146 passningar, xT 0.67SymonsThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 145 passningar, xT 0.14KokJason Meerstadt: 119 passningar, xT 0.5MeerstadtToivo Mero: 109 passningar, xT 0.83MeroNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 80 passningar, xT 0.05Ahmeti-GraincaJoran Hardeman: 76 passningar, xT 0.15HardemanFedde de Jong: 59 passningar, xT 0.14Jong
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 283 passningar, xT 0.49BerghFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 221 passningar, xT 1.15JensenMohamed Nassoh: 205 passningar, xT 0.67NassohLeo Greiml: 192 passningar, xT 0.39GreimlRio Hillen: 181 passningar, xT -0.03HillenMax Balard: 151 passningar, xT 0.37BalardMichael Robin Verrips: 144 passningar, xT 0.45VerripsJannes Van Hecke: 113 passningar, xT 0.5HeckeBoyd Lucassen: 92 passningar, xT 0.5LucassenCherrion Valerius: 82 passningar, xT 0.2ValeriusMylan Brouwers: 46 passningar, xT -0.01Brouwers
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    De Graafschap
    Rowan Besselink: 228 passningar, xT 0.22BesselinkDonny Warmerdam: 189 passningar, xT 0.2WarmerdamTies Wieggers: 162 passningar, xT 0.19WieggersGijs Bolk: 155 passningar, xT 0.44BolkKaya Symons: 146 passningar, xT 0.67SymonsThomas Petrus Johannes Kok: 145 passningar, xT 0.14KokJason Meerstadt: 119 passningar, xT 0.5MeerstadtToivo Mero: 109 passningar, xT 0.83MeroNart Ahmeti-Grainca: 80 passningar, xT 0.05Ahmeti-GraincaJoran Hardeman: 76 passningar, xT 0.15HardemanFedde de Jong: 59 passningar, xT 0.14Jong
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 283 passningar, xT 0.49BerghFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 221 passningar, xT 1.15JensenMohamed Nassoh: 205 passningar, xT 0.67NassohLeo Greiml: 192 passningar, xT 0.39GreimlRio Hillen: 181 passningar, xT -0.03HillenMax Balard: 151 passningar, xT 0.37BalardMichael Robin Verrips: 144 passningar, xT 0.45VerripsJannes Van Hecke: 113 passningar, xT 0.5HeckeBoyd Lucassen: 92 passningar, xT 0.5LucassenCherrion Valerius: 82 passningar, xT 0.2ValeriusMylan Brouwers: 46 passningar, xT -0.01Brouwers

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDe GraafschapNAC Breda
    Points47
    xPoints5.67.4
    xG per match1.11.8
    xGA per match2.11.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.23
    Playing styleDe GraafschapNAC Breda
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.470.68
    xT per match11.5
    xTA per match1.51.3
    Won balls, offensive half2430
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.340.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.33
    Entries into the box per match1217
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.760.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.73
    Passes per match364417
    Passes against per match311263
    Switches of play per match37.128.5
    Long balls per match4443
    Set piecesDe GraafschapNAC Breda
    xG from free kicks0.030.12
    Corners per match4.57
    Corners against per match5.92.6
    xG per corner0.020.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.630.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.720.62
    OtherDe GraafschapNAC Breda
    Throw-in control0.740.79
    The goalkeepersTies Wieggers (De Graafschap)Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)
    Saves1817
    Save %50%57%
    xG prevented29%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    De Graafschap
    Fixtures, form & tips
    NAC Breda
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins De Graafschap vs NAC Breda according to our model?

    The model gives NAC Breda a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: De Graafschap 31%, draw 22%, NAC Breda 46%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    DordrechtDordrecht
    2–1
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    1 59%X 21%2 20%
    The model called the outcome
    VitesseVitesse
    1–1
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 37%X 26%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.