Eerste Divisie19°16 km/h

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    TOP OssTOP OssLow block & direct
    1–2
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    The model's lean: 2 · NAC Breda (49%)

    TOP Oss vs NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

    1 · TOP Oss 25%X 26%49% NAC Breda · 2

    Analysis: TOP Oss – NAC Breda

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    NAC Breda's dominance in terms of points is undisputed, boasting an impressive 89 compared to TOP Oss's 44. This isn't just a numerical advantage; it's a testament to their consistent superiority. The expected goals also tilt the scales in NAC Breda's favor, with their 1.63 overshadowing TOP Oss's 1.14. This suggests that NAC Breda not only creates more chances but also has the defensive discipline to stifle their opponents, as indicated by their much lower xGA of 0.87 compared to TOP Oss's 1.7.

    TOP Oss might be riding a wave of form with four straight wins, but their style—low defense and direct—could struggle against a high-pressing, possession-oriented NAC Breda. The head-to-head data since 2023 also hints at TOP Oss's struggles, with a solitary draw and a loss against NAC Breda. While TOP Oss have been reliable in front of goal recently, scoring in 11 consecutive league matches, NAC Breda's potency is even more pronounced, having found the net in 15 successive fixtures.

    NAC Breda should take the upper hand in this matchup. A prediction of a 1-2 scoreline feels apt, aligning with the model's second most likely outcome. With a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, the odds are slightly in favor of a higher-scoring affair, particularly given both teams' recent scoring form.

    Bet365 offers a compelling value proposition with odds favoring NAC Breda at 2.00. While not a certainty, the combination of NAC Breda's higher xG, superior point tally, and the contrasting playing styles certainly makes this bet an attractive one for those looking to capitalize on current form and statistical insights.

    TOP OssTOP Oss
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #14xP/match #16Points #16
    Key players
    • Tijmen WildeboerFxG 0.50 · xT 0.01
    • Siriné Ckene DoucouréFxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
    • Thomas CoxRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    Form LDWDD
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: TOP Oss 25% · Draw 26% · NAC Breda 49%

    Match prediction: TOP Oss – NAC Breda

    Predicted score matrix

    NAC Breda →
    TOP Oss →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–19.8%
    0–28.3%
    0–34.5%
    0–4+2.6%
    1
    1–06.8%
    1–112.0%
    1–29.5%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.0%
    2
    2–04.1%
    2–16.7%
    2–25.4%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–01.6%
    3–12.5%
    3–22.1%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,14–1,63
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    –
    Over 2,552%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • NAC Breda to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.60

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • NAC Breda to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Moussa Soumano to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Moussa Soumano to score28%
    • Mitchell van Rooijen to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    TOP Oss 0Draw 1NAC Breda 1
    Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • TOP Oss come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • TOP Oss have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
    • NAC Breda have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    TOP Oss
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    TOP Oss (54–64)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 152 passningar, xT 0.37VianelloIlounga Isea Pata: 121 passningar, xT 0.72PataBryan Albert Van Hove: 119 passningar, xT 0.71HoveMike Havekotte: 94 passningar, xT 0.15HavekotteMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 76 passningar, xT 0.1HinokeMitchell Van Rooijen: 75 passningar, xT 0.2RooijenLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 72 passningar, xT 0.05MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 71 passningar, xT 0.19EsajasMaxim Mariani: 64 passningar, xT 0.03MarianiLuciano Slagveer: 63 passningar, xT 0.13SlagveerMart Remans: 51 passningar, xT 0.08Remans
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    TOP Oss
    Delano Vianello: 152 passningar, xT 0.37VianelloIlounga Isea Pata: 121 passningar, xT 0.72PataBryan Albert Van Hove: 119 passningar, xT 0.71HoveMike Havekotte: 94 passningar, xT 0.15HavekotteMauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho Hinoke: 76 passningar, xT 0.1HinokeMitchell Van Rooijen: 75 passningar, xT 0.2RooijenLeonel Miquel Francisco Miguel: 72 passningar, xT 0.05MiguelMarcelencio Esajas: 71 passningar, xT 0.19EsajasMaxim Mariani: 64 passningar, xT 0.03MarianiLuciano Slagveer: 63 passningar, xT 0.13SlagveerMart Remans: 51 passningar, xT 0.08Remans
    The goalkeepersMike Havekotte (TOP Oss)NAC Breda
    Saves139–
    Save %69%–
    xG prevented48%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Teams & more matches this round

    TOP Oss
    Fixtures, form & tips
    NAC Breda
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins TOP Oss vs NAC Breda according to our model?

    The model gives NAC Breda a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TOP Oss 25%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.