TOP Oss vs NAC Breda: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie7 August 202618°8 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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TOP OssLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · NAC Breda (49%)

NAC BredaPossession & high press

1 · TOP Oss 25%X 26%49% NAC Breda · 2

25%

26%

49%

TOP Oss

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #14xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Tijmen WildeboerFxG 0.5 · xT 0.01
Siriné Ckene DoucouréFxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
Thomas CoxRBxG 0 · xT 0.18

NAC Breda

Form LDWDD

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Evan RottierFxG 0.31 · xT 0.04
Luka ReischlFxG 0.55 · xT -0.02
Jesse BalFxG 0.51 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: TOP Oss – NAC Breda

Predicted score matrix

NAC Breda →

TOP Oss →

0–06.6%

0–19.8%

0–28.3%

0–34.5%

0–4+2.6%

1–06.8%

1–112.0%

1–29.5%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.0%

2–04.1%

2–16.7%

2–25.4%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.7%

3–01.6%

3–12.5%

3–22.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,14–1,63

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

–

Over 2,552%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: TOP Oss – NAC Breda

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

NAC Breda's dominance in terms of points is undisputed, boasting an impressive 89 compared to TOP Oss's 44. This isn't just a numerical advantage; it's a testament to their consistent superiority. The expected goals also tilt the scales in NAC Breda's favor, with their 1.63 overshadowing TOP Oss's 1.14. This suggests that NAC Breda not only creates more chances but also has the defensive discipline to stifle their opponents, as indicated by their much lower xGA of 0.87 compared to TOP Oss's 1.7.

TOP Oss might be riding a wave of form with four straight wins, but their style—low defense and direct—could struggle against a high-pressing, possession-oriented NAC Breda. The head-to-head data since 2023 also hints at TOP Oss's struggles, with a solitary draw and a loss against NAC Breda. While TOP Oss have been reliable in front of goal recently, scoring in 11 consecutive league matches, NAC Breda's potency is even more pronounced, having found the net in 15 successive fixtures.

NAC Breda should take the upper hand in this matchup. A prediction of a 1-2 scoreline feels apt, aligning with the model's second most likely outcome. With a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, the odds are slightly in favor of a higher-scoring affair, particularly given both teams' recent scoring form.

Bet365 offers a compelling value proposition with odds favoring NAC Breda at 2.00. While not a certainty, the combination of NAC Breda's higher xG, superior point tally, and the contrasting playing styles certainly makes this bet an attractive one for those looking to capitalize on current form and statistical insights.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

TOP Oss 0Draw 1NAC Breda 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

TOP Oss come into this round on 4 straight wins.
TOP Oss have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
NAC Breda have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

TOP Oss

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

TOP Oss (54–64)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

TOP Oss

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

TOP Oss

The teams in numbers

Performance	TOP Oss	NAC Breda
Points	44	89
xPoints	49.8	66
xG per match	1.4	2.1
xGA per match	1.7	0.87
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.14

Playing style	TOP Oss	NAC Breda
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.38	0.69
xT per match	0.95	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	0.58
Won balls, offensive half	27	33
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.36
Entries into the box per match	12	18
Entries into the box against	15	7
Pass completion %	0.72	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.73
Passes per match	271	424
Passes against per match	384	253
Switches of play per match	23.4	32.3
Long balls per match	39	44

Set pieces	TOP Oss	NAC Breda
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.09
Corners per match	4.8	7.3
Corners against per match	7	3.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.62

Other	TOP Oss	NAC Breda
Throw-in control	0.71	0.75

The goalkeepers	Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss)	NAC Breda
Saves	139	–
Save %	69%	–
xG prevented	48%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins TOP Oss vs NAC Breda according to our model?

The model gives NAC Breda a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TOP Oss 25%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 49%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.