Eerste Divisie21°0,1 mm17 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Jong AZJong AZPossession & high press
    0–1
    FC EindhovenFC EindhovenPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Jong AZ (44%)

    Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong AZ 44%X 25%31% FC Eindhoven · 2

    Analysis: Jong AZ – FC Eindhoven

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Four matches are hardly a reliable sample, but the head-to-head record since 2023 shows Eindhoven with the upper hand, claiming three wins to AZ Alkmaar U21's solitary victory. Yet, the model leans towards AZ Alkmaar U21, giving them a 44% chance of claiming the spoils in this encounter. It seems that while Eindhoven has historically had the upper hand, the undercurrent of current form and the expected goals tilt slightly in favour of the hosts.

    AZ Alkmaar U21's approach is aggressive, with a possession and high-press game that might disrupt Eindhoven's more measured possession control. This tactical clash is poised to influence the flow of the match, potentially leading to more goal-scoring opportunities. With the expected goals at 1.73 for AZ Alkmaar U21 and 1.37 for Eindhoven, a 2-1 win for the home side looms large on the horizon, despite the historical record.

    Both teams are predicted to find the net, with a 62% probability of both teams scoring, and the over 2.5 goals market shows a 60% likelihood. These percentages suggest a game that could well see the nets bulge multiple times. The betting markets seem to reflect this expectation, indicating action at both ends of the pitch in a potentially lively affair.

    Eindhoven's higher xPoints and xG per match give them an edge on paper in certain aspects, but AZ Alkmaar U21 have shown resilience in defense with a slightly better xGA record. This defensive solidity, coupled with their high-press approach, could be the key to unlocking Eindhoven, who are not without their defensive vulnerabilities.

    For those eyeing the betting angle, the value emerges with AZ Alkmaar U21 at 2.25 odds offered by Bet365. While nothing is guaranteed, the blend of model percentage favouring the home side and their strategic playing style make this an enticing prospect for punters looking for an edge.

    Jong AZJong AZ
    Form WLLLW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #13xP/match #18Points #17
    Key players
    • Sem van DuijnFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
    • Billy van DuijlCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
    • Kasper BoogaardCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
    FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven
    Form DLLLW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #19xP/match #8Points #11
    Key players
    • Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Rangelo JangaFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
    • Sven SimonsCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jong AZ 44% · Draw 25% · FC Eindhoven 31%

    Match prediction: Jong AZ – FC Eindhoven

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Eindhoven →
    Jong AZ →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.8%
    0–15.9%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–07.5%
    1–111.0%
    1–27.3%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.7%
    2–19.2%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.6%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-07%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,73–1,37
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    –
    Over 2,560%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Jong AZ or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Jong AZ or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Bendegúz Kovács to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Bendegúz Kovács to score24%
    • Owen Renfrum to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Jong AZ 1Draw 0FC Eindhoven 3
    Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong AZ
    FC Eindhoven
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Jong AZ (61–76)
    FC Eindhoven (51–69)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong AZ
    Mathijs Menu: 274 passningar, xT 1.05MenuFrej Elkjær Andersen: 240 passningar, xT 0.36AndersenNick Twisk: 237 passningar, xT 0.45TwiskJulian Oerip: 168 passningar, xT 0.49OeripJesper Zwart: 127 passningar, xT 0.12ZwartWassim Bouziane: 120 passningar, xT 0.46BouzianeKiyani Zeggen: 103 passningar, xT 0.21ZeggenKiani Inge: 94 passningar, xT 0.19IngeBohdan Budko: 83 passningar, xT 0.17BudkoAnthony Smits: 62 passningar, xT 0.19SmitsRion Ichihara: 48 passningar, xT 0.07Ichihara
    FC Eindhoven
    Daan Huisman: 125 passningar, xT 0.21HuismanFarouq Limouri: 113 passningar, xT 0.06LimouriClint Essers: 112 passningar, xT 0.15EssersJohn Andreu Neeskens Ramírez: 108 passningar, xT 0.22RamírezTyrese Simons: 99 passningar, xT 0.07SimonsJort Borgmans: 98 passningar, xT 0.29BorgmansOwen Renfrum: 89 passningar, xT 0.36RenfrumMarlon van de Wetering: 75 passningar, xT 0.22WeteringSven Simons: 73 passningar, xT 0SimonsXander Blomme: 62 passningar, xT 0.09BlommeBoris van Schuppen: 57 passningar, xT 0.24Schuppen
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong AZ
    Mathijs Menu: 274 passningar, xT 1.05MenuFrej Elkjær Andersen: 240 passningar, xT 0.36AndersenNick Twisk: 237 passningar, xT 0.45TwiskJulian Oerip: 168 passningar, xT 0.49OeripJesper Zwart: 127 passningar, xT 0.12ZwartWassim Bouziane: 120 passningar, xT 0.46BouzianeKiyani Zeggen: 103 passningar, xT 0.21ZeggenKiani Inge: 94 passningar, xT 0.19IngeBohdan Budko: 83 passningar, xT 0.17BudkoAnthony Smits: 62 passningar, xT 0.19SmitsRion Ichihara: 48 passningar, xT 0.07Ichihara
    FC Eindhoven
    Daan Huisman: 125 passningar, xT 0.21HuismanFarouq Limouri: 113 passningar, xT 0.06LimouriClint Essers: 112 passningar, xT 0.15EssersJohn Andreu Neeskens Ramírez: 108 passningar, xT 0.22RamírezTyrese Simons: 99 passningar, xT 0.07SimonsJort Borgmans: 98 passningar, xT 0.29BorgmansOwen Renfrum: 89 passningar, xT 0.36RenfrumMarlon van de Wetering: 75 passningar, xT 0.22WeteringSven Simons: 73 passningar, xT 0SimonsXander Blomme: 62 passningar, xT 0.09BlommeBoris van Schuppen: 57 passningar, xT 0.24Schuppen

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJong AZFC Eindhoven
    Points4047
    xPoints43.854.7
    xG per match1.21.4
    xGA per match1.61.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.230.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.240.16
    Playing styleJong AZFC Eindhoven
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.580.43
    xT per match0.960.84
    xTA per match1.11.1
    Won balls, offensive half2428
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.3
    Entries into the box per match1211
    Entries into the box against1314
    Pass completion %0.80.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.750.7
    Passes per match394294
    Passes against per match325396
    Switches of play per match30.723.3
    Long balls per match4538
    Set piecesJong AZFC Eindhoven
    xG from free kicks0.010.09
    Corners per match54.9
    Corners against per match5.96
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.490.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.65
    OtherJong AZFC Eindhoven
    Throw-in control0.720.71
    The goalkeepersKiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)
    Saves5790
    Save %58%66%
    xG prevented37%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jong AZ
    Fixtures, form & tips
    FC Eindhoven
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven according to our model?

    The model gives Jong AZ a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong AZ 44%, draw 25%, FC Eindhoven 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    DordrechtDordrecht
    2–1
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    1 59%X 21%2 20%
    The model called the outcome
    VitesseVitesse
    1–1
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 37%X 26%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.