Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven: Prediction & Odds (10 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie10 August 202620°21 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Jong AZPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Jong AZ (44%)

FC EindhovenPossession control

1 · Jong AZ 44%X 25%31% FC Eindhoven · 2

44%

25%

31%

Jong AZ

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #11xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06
Enzo CornelisseFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Junior-Morau KadileLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.14

FC Eindhoven

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #19xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.1 · xT 0.11
Rangelo JangaFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
Sven SimonsCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Jong AZ – FC Eindhoven

Predicted score matrix

FC Eindhoven →

Jong AZ →

0–04.8%

0–15.9%

0–24.2%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.9%

1–07.5%

1–111.0%

1–27.3%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.7%

2–19.2%

2–26.3%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.9%

3–15.3%

3–23.6%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-07%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,73–1,37

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Jong AZ – FC Eindhoven

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

44% is the magic number here, with model probabilities tipping AZ Alkmaar U21 as the likely winners at home against Eindhoven. Yet, it's intriguing how history tells a different story, as Eindhoven has had an upper hand in their head-to-head clashes since 2023, winning three out of four encounters. There’s a tension in this matchup between the recent trend and the numbers hinting at a shift in balance.

AZ Alkmaar U21. That's where the numbers point, with the team showing a stronger season performance and an edge in points and xPoints. AZ's expected goals (1.73) suggest they have the attacking flair to grab a couple against Eindhoven’s leaky defense, which concedes 1.6 xGA per match. Yet, with both sides embracing possession-based styles, this could just as easily devolve into a battle of who controls the ball more efficiently.

Numbers like 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score suggest a goal-fest is on the cards. The model's most likely scorelines — 1-1, 2-1, or even a narrow 1-0 — indicate that while AZ have the slight advantage, goals will not be scarce. A 2-1 victory for AZ Alkmaar U21 fits the statistical narrative comfortably, aligning with their goal expectancy and slight defensive edge.

Watching them both try to dominate possession, the game could turn on which team better converts territorial advantage into tangible results. While Eindhoven have been the historical spoilers, the statistical tide may be turning in AZ Alkmaar U21’s favor. A bet on over 2.5 goals at any decent odds could be fascinating, though it's worth noting the bookmaker 2.50 odds on AZ to win, given their 44% chance of taking the match, could yield the most value in this Eerste Divisie clash.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Jong AZ 1Draw 0FC Eindhoven 3

Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jong AZ

FC Eindhoven

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Jong AZ (61–76)

FC Eindhoven (51–69)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jong AZ

FC Eindhoven

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jong AZ

FC Eindhoven

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jong AZ	FC Eindhoven
Points	58	47
xPoints	55.6	54.7
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.16

Playing style	Jong AZ	FC Eindhoven
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.43
xT per match	0.98	0.84
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.3
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.7
Passes per match	336	294
Passes against per match	369	396
Switches of play per match	16.4	23.3
Long balls per match	32	38

Set pieces	Jong AZ	FC Eindhoven
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.09
Corners per match	6.9	4.9
Corners against per match	4.3	6
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.65

Other	Jong AZ	FC Eindhoven
Throw-in control	0.75	0.71

The goalkeepers	Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)	Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)
Saves	57	90
Save %	58%	66%
xG prevented	37%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven according to our model?

The model gives Jong AZ a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong AZ 44%, draw 25%, FC Eindhoven 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.