01 · 2 legs
Safe
- De Graafschap to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Eerste Divisie20°15 km/h
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De GraafschapPossession & high pressvs
Jong AZPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · De Graafschap (52%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.35 (+7 %)
De Graafschap – Jong AZ · Eerste Divisie
1 · De Graafschap 52%X 24%23% Jong AZ · 2
52%
24%
23%
Analysis: De Graafschap – Jong AZ
Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work
Four matches. That's the total head-to-head record between De Graafschap and AZ Alkmaar U21 since 2023. A small sample size, but it tilts unambiguously in favour of De Graafschap, who have recorded three wins and a draw. More telling, though, is the expected goals (xG) data, which paints a picture of De Graafschap as the dominant side. They're generating 1.6 xG per match compared to AZ Alkmaar U21's meagre 0.57, suggesting they not only create more chances but also higher-quality ones.
De Graafschap have a strong home record, winning 63% of their matches, which aligns with the model's 52% probability of them securing victory. Their possession and high-press style mirrors that of AZ Alkmaar U21, setting the stage for a tactical showdown, but crucially, De Graafschap are better at converting this style into tangible results. The expected goals model supports their superiority with a predicted 2.16 goals for De Graafschap against AZ Alkmaar U21's 1.34.
With a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals, the bookies are expecting a lively affair. Yet, the real sharp angle is on the under 3.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 1.98 on this line. The model rates the likelihood at 54%, giving savvy punters a 6% edge. Both teams are adept at possession, but their defensive stats — De Graafschap's xGA of 0.94 versus AZ Alkmaar U21's 0.82 — indicate that they can tighten the screws effectively.
AZ Alkmaar U21 are not to be underestimated, but the numbers lean clearly towards a home win. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%) reflects this, with 1-1 (9%) as the next most probable outcome. Given all factors, a 2-1 victory for De Graafschap seems the most plausible conclusion, with the value bet falling on the under 3.5 goals at attractive odds.
De GraafschapForm WDWLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #5xT #6xP/match #10Points #8
Key players
- Joran HardemanCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.20
- Kaya SymonsLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
- Fedde de JongCAMxG 0.39 · xT 0.03
Jong AZForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #19xGA #3xT #7xP/match #16Points #19
Key players
- Sem van DuijnFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
- Billy van DuijlCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
- Kasper BoogaardCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: De Graafschap – Jong AZ
Predicted score matrix
Jong AZ →
De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–13.8%
0–22.7%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–06.3%
1–19.0%
1–25.9%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.0%
2–19.4%
2–26.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–05.1%
3–16.8%
3–24.6%
3–32.0%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–04.5%
4+–16.1%
4+–24.1%
4+–31.8%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.3-17%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
2,16–1,34
Both teams to score
66%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,532%
@3.35EV+7%
Over 2,568%
@1.32
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- De Graafschap to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Nathan Charles Kaninda to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score66%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Nathan Charles Kaninda to score35%
- Billy van Duijl to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.532% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+7%
- Under 2.532% probability@3.35BetssonEV+7%
- Under 2.532% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+7%
| Bookmaker | 1 · De Graafschap | X | 2 · Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | 4.05 | 3.55 |
| Betsson | 1.82 | 4.05 | 3.55 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | 4.05 | 3.55 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 09:36
Odds movement
10 %
53 %48 %
1.82 → 1.82
X0 %
26 %21 %
4.05 → 4.05
20 %
28 %23 %
3.55 → 3.55
Over 2,50 %
74 %69 %
1.32 → 1.32
Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDe Graafschap 3Draw 1Jong AZ 0
Goals: 15–4 (⌀ 4,8)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- De Graafschap win 63% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
De Graafschap
Jong AZ
De Graafschap (1–1)
Jong AZ (0–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
De Graafschap
Jong AZ
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
De Graafschap
Jong AZ
The teams in numbers
| Performance | De Graafschap | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 0 |
| xPoints | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.57 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0 | 0.04 |
| Playing style | De Graafschap | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 0.62 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 493 | 449 |
| Passes against per match | 231 | 299 |
| Switches of play per match | 64.5 | 34.6 |
| Long balls per match | 57 | 59 |
| Set pieces | De Graafschap | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.18 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.8 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 1 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Other | De Graafschap | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.93 |
| The goalkeepers | Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap) | Rion Ichihara (Jong AZ) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Save % | 75% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins De Graafschap vs Jong AZ according to our model?
The model gives De Graafschap a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: De Graafschap 52%, draw 24%, Jong AZ 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.