Eerste Divisie16°6,5 mm17 km/h

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    Den BoschDen BoschCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    FC EindhovenFC EindhovenPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Den Bosch (45%)

    Den Bosch – FC Eindhoven · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Den Bosch 45%X 27%29% FC Eindhoven · 2

    Analysis: Den Bosch – FC Eindhoven

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Four matches since 2023 between Den Bosch and Eindhoven might suggest a moderate rivalry, but with such a slender sample size, form and expected goals (xG) offer more substantial insights for this Eerste Divisie clash. Den Bosch have been goal-happy lately, finding the net in 14 consecutive league games. Their reliance on counter-attacks and crosses could be crucial against an Eindhoven side that loves to control possession but struggles to capitalize on quick transitions, managing an xG of just 0.02 within eight seconds of winning the ball.

    Den Bosch, with a 45% model win probability, seem likelier to edge this encounter, buoyed by their attacking efficiency. Notably, their expected goals stand at 1.78 compared to Eindhoven's 1.43, hinting at a decent offensive output despite the drizzle forecasted, which might typically temper goal-scoring. The model favours Den Bosch for a reason, and their recent streak suggests they’ll likely exploit Eindhoven's lesser defensive numbers.

    Eindhoven, although slightly ahead on points with three to Den Bosch's solitary one, may find themselves constrained by their defensive vulnerabilities. Their xGA (expected goals against) of 1.7 pales compared to the 2.3 conceded by Den Bosch, but their style may struggle against the home team's fast breaks and effective crossing game. A scoreline of 2-1 in Den Bosch’s favour, while not a given, aligns well with the statistical likelihoods and their current form.

    With a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals, bettors looking for value might find it in this high-scoring prospect. Considering Den Bosch's offensive streak and Eindhoven's potential to nick a goal, both teams to score at 64% also seems a plausible bet. For those with a keen eye on value, backing Den Bosch to win at odds of 2.20 with Bet365 presents a promising edge, tapping into both form and the statistical lean from the model.

    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form LDLDL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #20xT #15xP/match #10Points #16
    Key players
    • Ilias BoumassaoudiCAMxG 0.22 · xT -0.02
    • Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.15 · xT 0.17
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachCAMxG 0.70 · xT 0.04
    FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven
    Form LLWWL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #19xP/match #9Points #4
    Key players
    • Guus BeaumontCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17
    • Mika de JongeCMxG 0.54 · xT -0.02
    • Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Den Bosch – FC Eindhoven

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Eindhoven →
    Den Bosch →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.3%
    0–15.5%
    0–24.1%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–110.6%
    1–27.3%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–06.4%
    2–19.1%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–15.4%
    3–23.9%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.6%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,78–1,43
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.48
    Over 2,562%
    @1.50

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Den Bosch or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Den Bosch or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score27%
    • Guus Beaumont to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Den BoschX2 · FC Eindhoven
    Betsafe1.983.603.35
    Betsson1.983.603.35
    Nordicbet1.983.603.35

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:35

    Odds movement

    10 %
    49 %44 %

    1.98 → 1.98

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.60 → 3.60

    20 %
    31 %26 %

    3.35 → 3.35

    Over 2,50 %
    65 %60 %

    1.50 → 1.50

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Den Bosch 2Draw 1FC Eindhoven 1
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Den Bosch have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Den Bosch
    FC Eindhoven
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Den Bosch (3–4)
    FC Eindhoven (3–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 52 passningar, xT 0.32FortesHessel Eikelboom: 47 passningar, xT 0.17EikelboomPepijn van de Merbel: 43 passningar, xT 0.15MerbelStan Maas: 41 passningar, xT 0.08MaasMees Laros: 40 passningar, xT 0.35LarosJasper van Heertum: 39 passningar, xT 0.06HeertumDevon Findell De Corte: 35 passningar, xT 0.24CorteKevin Felida: 31 passningar, xT 0.06FelidaKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 27 passningar, xT 0.31BokoloSebastian Karlsson Grach: 24 passningar, xT -0.01GrachSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 16 passningar, xT 0.35Barglan
    FC Eindhoven
    Guus Beaumont: 76 passningar, xT 0.22BeaumontMika de Jonge: 68 passningar, xT 0.01JongeOwen Renfrum: 67 passningar, xT 0.04RenfrumJort Borgmans: 63 passningar, xT 0.17BorgmansJunior Poortvliet: 63 passningar, xT 0.11PoortvlietTyrese Simons: 60 passningar, xT 0.16SimonsClint Essers: 53 passningar, xT 0.29EssersAmir Bryson: 34 passningar, xT 0.03BrysonSiegert Baartmans: 33 passningar, xT -0.07BaartmansXander Blomme: 32 passningar, xT 0.02BlommeThijs Muller: 31 passningar, xT 0.14Muller
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 52 passningar, xT 0.32FortesHessel Eikelboom: 47 passningar, xT 0.17EikelboomPepijn van de Merbel: 43 passningar, xT 0.15MerbelStan Maas: 41 passningar, xT 0.08MaasMees Laros: 40 passningar, xT 0.35LarosJasper van Heertum: 39 passningar, xT 0.06HeertumDevon Findell De Corte: 35 passningar, xT 0.24CorteKevin Felida: 31 passningar, xT 0.06FelidaKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 27 passningar, xT 0.31BokoloSebastian Karlsson Grach: 24 passningar, xT -0.01GrachSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 16 passningar, xT 0.35Barglan
    FC Eindhoven
    Guus Beaumont: 76 passningar, xT 0.22BeaumontMika de Jonge: 68 passningar, xT 0.01JongeOwen Renfrum: 67 passningar, xT 0.04RenfrumJort Borgmans: 63 passningar, xT 0.17BorgmansJunior Poortvliet: 63 passningar, xT 0.11PoortvlietTyrese Simons: 60 passningar, xT 0.16SimonsClint Essers: 53 passningar, xT 0.29EssersAmir Bryson: 34 passningar, xT 0.03BrysonSiegert Baartmans: 33 passningar, xT -0.07BaartmansXander Blomme: 32 passningar, xT 0.02BlommeThijs Muller: 31 passningar, xT 0.14Muller

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDen BoschFC Eindhoven
    Points13
    xPoints2.62.6
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match2.31.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.02
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.26
    Playing styleDen BoschFC Eindhoven
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.320.45
    xT per match1.10.73
    xTA per match2.11.6
    Won balls, offensive half2328
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.390.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.350.26
    Entries into the box per match1011
    Entries into the box against2414
    Pass completion %0.630.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.61
    Passes per match211318
    Passes against per match294424
    Switches of play per match1019.1
    Long balls per match2941
    Set piecesDen BoschFC Eindhoven
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match6.54.5
    Corners against per match83.5
    xG per corner0.030.06
    xGA per corner against0.060.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.57
    OtherDen BoschFC Eindhoven
    Throw-in control0.740.71
    The goalkeepersPepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)
    Saves179
    Save %81%75%
    xG prevented71%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven according to our model?

    The model gives Den Bosch a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Den Bosch 45%, draw 27%, FC Eindhoven 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.