01 · 2 legs
Safe
- FC Eindhoven to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Eerste Divisie29°11 km/h
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FC EindhovenPossession controlvs
MVV MaastrichtPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · FC Eindhoven (47%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.62 (+21 %)
FC Eindhoven – MVV Maastricht · Eerste Divisie
1 · FC Eindhoven 47%X 27%27% MVV Maastricht · 2
47%
27%
27%
Analysis: FC Eindhoven – MVV Maastricht
Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work
Four encounters since 2023 give us a small head-to-head sample, yet MVV Maastricht has edged ahead with two wins to Eindhoven's one. This may suggest a slight psychological edge for the visitors, but when you delve into the expected goals (xG) data, it's evident that Eindhoven holds a structural advantage at home. An expected goals tally of 1.76 against MVV Maastricht’s 1.07 paints the picture of a match where the hosts should seize control.
Eindhoven leans heavily into a possession-control strategy, which might keep the game tight, especially as MVV Maastricht employs a similar style. While the model’s most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 hint at a closely-fought match, Eindhoven’s defensive metrics, with an xGA of just 0.57 compared to MVV Maastricht’s 0.97, suggest that if the breakthrough comes, it's more likely to be in their favor.
MVV Maastricht boasts a higher xG within eight seconds of winning the ball, standing at 0.35, revealing their potential for rapid transitions. However, Eindhoven’s ability to limit xGA in similar transitions to a flat zero underscores the home side's defensive robustness. This could be crucial in neutralizing MVV Maastricht’s quick breaks and maintaining control over the game’s tempo.
With the weather conditions baked into the model’s numbers, the probability tilt favors a low-scoring affair. The over/under 2.5 goals market sees 54% leaning towards over, yet value emerges on the under 2.5 goals line at odds of 2.52 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This bet holds a 16% edge according to the model, marking it as the standout betting angle. Given the defensive strengths of both teams and Eindhoven's slight edge, a 1-0 victory for the hosts seems the most plausible outcome, making the under 2.5 goals bet a savvy play in this contest.
FC EindhovenForm LLLWW
League ranking xG #18xGA #2xT #19xP/match #5Points #6
Key players
- Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
- Rangelo JangaFxG 0.32 · xT -0.01
- Sven SimonsCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.09
MVV MaastrichtForm LDDLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #16xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Lennerd DaneelsLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.30
- Elias Sierra-CappellettiCDMxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
- Delano AsanteRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: FC Eindhoven – MVV Maastricht
Predicted score matrix
MVV Maastricht →
FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–16.0%
0–23.4%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.1%
1–111.4%
1–25.9%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.8%
2–25.2%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.4%
3–15.7%
3–23.1%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.5%
4+–13.8%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,76–1,07
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.62EV+21%
Over 2,554%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- FC Eindhoven to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Junior Poortvliet to score13%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Junior Poortvliet to score13%
- Finn Jesper Dicke to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.546% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+21%
- Under 2.546% probability@2.62BetssonEV+21%
- Under 2.546% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+21%
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Eindhoven | X | 2 · MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | EV+ 3% 3.85 | 3.70 |
| Betsson | 1.82 | EV+ 3% 3.85 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | EV+ 3% 3.85 | 3.70 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 08:35
Odds movement
10 %
53 %48 %
1.82 → 1.82
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.85 → 3.85
20 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.70
Over 2,50 %
66 %61 %
1.46 → 1.46
Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFC Eindhoven 1Draw 1MVV Maastricht 2
Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Eindhoven
MVV Maastricht
FC Eindhoven (1–0)
MVV Maastricht (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Eindhoven
MVV Maastricht
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Eindhoven
MVV Maastricht
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Eindhoven | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 0.82 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.57 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | FC Eindhoven | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.62 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 6 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 299 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 449 | 228 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.2 | 33.2 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 51 |
| Set pieces | FC Eindhoven | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 2.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0 |
| Other | FC Eindhoven | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven) | Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 77% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht according to our model?
The model gives FC Eindhoven a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Eindhoven 47%, draw 27%, MVV Maastricht 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.