Emmen vs Jong AZ: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie21 August 202615°16,6 mm13 km/h

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EmmenPossession control

Jong AZPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Emmen (45%)

1 · Emmen 45%X 25%30% Jong AZ · 2

45%

25%

30%

Analysis: Emmen – Jong AZ

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Four head-to-heads since 2023 offer a small sample size, but Emmen's home form this season has pointed them in the right direction against AZ Alkmaar U21. The model's lean towards Emmen, with a 45% probability of victory, is mirrored by their slight advantage in expected goals (1.88 to 1.42) and a possession control style that can exploit AZ Alkmaar U21's high press—especially under wet conditions. The forecast of 6.0 mm of rain could suppress some goal-scoring opportunities, yet the overall model prediction still gives a healthy 64% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Emmen has shown a knack for leveraging home advantage, as evidenced by their edge in xG per match (1.1 compared to AZ Alkmaar U21's 0.57). Emmen's defensive vulnerabilities are clear, conceding an xGA of 1.7, but AZ Alkmaar U21's own struggles in creating high-quality chances (0.57 xG per match) suggest they might find it challenging to capitalize. The most likely scorelines reflect a tight contest, with a 10% probability for a 1-1 draw and a 9% chance of a 2-1 win for Emmen.

AZ Alkmaar U21, despite their high press style, has yet to notch a point this season, making their 30% chance of winning seem optimistic. Their defensive metrics, with an xGA of 0.82, suggest they'll aim to stifle Emmen's attack. However, with Emmen's ability to control possession and the pressing style potentially backfiring in rainy conditions, AZ Alkmaar U21 might struggle to keep the home side at bay.

The sharpest angle lies in the over 2.5 goals market, given the 64% probability and the scoring tendencies of both teams. While the weather might play a dampening role, the match's dynamics lean towards goals, making this an enticing prospect for those looking to place a wager.

Emmen

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #13xP/match #13Points #8

Key players

Romano PostemaFxG 0.52 · xT 0.08
Pascal MulderCBxG 0.20 · xT 0.14
Freddy QuispelFxG 0.24 · xT 0.06

Jong AZ

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #21xGA #3xT #7xP/match #19Points #20

Key players

Sem van DuijnFxG 0.41 · xT 0.02
Billy van DuijlCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
Kasper BoogaardCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Emmen – Jong AZ

Predicted score matrix

Jong AZ →

Emmen →

0–04.0%

0–14.9%

0–23.7%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.9%

1–06.6%

1–110.1%

1–27.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.5%

2–19.2%

2–26.6%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–04.1%

3–15.8%

3–24.1%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.9%

4+–14.2%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,88–1,42

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.68

Over 2,564%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Emmen to win45%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Emmen to win45%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Freddy Quispel to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Freddy Quispel to score23%
Billy van Duijl to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Emmen45% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
1 · Emmen45% probability@2.32BetssonEV+5%reference odds
1 · Emmen45% probability@2.32NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Emmen	X	2 · Jong AZ
Betsafe	EV+ 5% 2.32	3.60	2.65
Betsson	EV+ 5% 2.32	3.60	2.65
Nordicbet	EV+ 5% 2.32	3.60	2.65

Odds updated 18 Aug, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Jong AZ win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 2.90 to 2.65 (−9%).

1+8 %

44 %39 %

2.15 → 2.32

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.60

2-9 %

35 %30 %

2.90 → 2.65

Over 2,5-1 %

66 %61 %

1.46 → 1.44

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Emmen 2Draw 1Jong AZ 1

Goals: 9–9 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Emmen

Jong AZ

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Emmen (1–0)

Jong AZ (0–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Emmen

Jong AZ

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Emmen

Jong AZ

The teams in numbers

Performance	Emmen	Jong AZ
Points	3	0
xPoints	1.1	0.9
xG per match	1.1	0.57
xGA per match	1.7	0.82
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.04

Playing style	Emmen	Jong AZ
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.56	0.62
xT per match	1.2	1.4
xTA per match	0.98	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	27	37
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.43
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.42
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	10	6
Pass completion %	0.72	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.61
Passes per match	288	450
Passes against per match	376	300
Switches of play per match	17.4	34.7
Long balls per match	20	59

Set pieces	Emmen	Jong AZ
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	0	5.1
Corners against per match	2	3.1
xG per corner	0	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.67

Other	Emmen	Jong AZ
Throw-in control	0.78	0.93

The goalkeepers	Sam Karssies (Emmen)	Rion Ichihara (Jong AZ)
Saves	3	2
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Emmen vs Jong AZ according to our model?

The model gives Emmen a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Emmen 45%, draw 25%, Jong AZ 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.