01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Waalwijk or draw (X2)68%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Eerste Divisie16°4,3 mm16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Helmond SportLow block & directvs
WaalwijkCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Waalwijk (45%)Best value by the model: 1 · Helmond Sport @ 3.45 (+4 %)
Helmond Sport – Waalwijk · Eerste Divisie
1 · Helmond Sport 30%X 25%45% Waalwijk · 2
30%
25%
45%
Analysis: Helmond Sport – Waalwijk
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
RKC Waalwijk's impressive streak of scoring in 24 consecutive league matches sets the stage for their clash with Helmond Sport, where they are projected as the favorites with a 45% chance of victory. Despite Helmond Sport's home advantage, the model's lean towards RKC Waalwijk is supported by more robust expected goals figures: 1.56 for RKC versus 1.31 for Helmond. These numbers suggest that Waalwijk's attacking prowess, bolstered by their preferred counter-attacking style, could prove decisive.
Helmond Sport's defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed throughout the campaign, with an alarming xGA of 2.2 per match. Their low defensive profile combined with a direct style of play has not yielded the desired results, as they have been unable to secure a win in their two head-to-head encounters with Waalwijk, although this small sample size does offer limited predictive value.
The weather forecast of 16.6°C with 3.3 mm of rain could dampen attacking endeavors slightly, but given the statistical lean towards over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, expect a reasonably open contest. The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 12%, indicates a competitive match, yet the 9% probability of a 1-2 outcome also looms large.
RKC Waalwijk edges Helmond Sport in points and xPoints, reinforcing their slight upper hand. However, for bettors looking at value plays, the odds on Helmond Sport securing a win at 3.45 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 4% edge over the model's 30% win rate for the hosts. While this doesn't guarantee profit, it represents a value opportunity for those inclined to back the underdog at home.
Helmond SportForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #20xP/match #21Points #17
Key players
- Xander Jan Van der VeldeLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Helgi Frodi IngasonLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Dean HuibertsCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.02
WaalwijkForm WLWDD
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #12xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.25
- Nazjir HeldLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.70
- Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Helmond Sport – Waalwijk
Predicted score matrix
Waalwijk →
Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–18.5%
0–26.9%
0–33.6%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–07.1%
1–111.9%
1–29.0%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–04.9%
2–17.6%
2–25.9%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.3%
3–22.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.5%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,31–1,56
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.08
Over 2,555%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Waalwijk or draw (X2)68%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jesse van de Haar to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jesse van de Haar to score26%
- Michel-Simon Ludwig to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Helmond Sport30% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Helmond Sport30% probability@3.45BetssonEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Helmond Sport30% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Helmond Sport | X | 2 · Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| Betsson | EV+ 4% 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 09:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
30 %25 %
3.25 → 3.45
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.45
2-5 %
48 %43 %
2.08 → 1.98
Over 2,5+1 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.70
Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHelmond Sport 0Draw 2Waalwijk 0
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- RKC Waalwijk have scored in 24 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Helmond Sport
Waalwijk
Helmond Sport (2–3)
Waalwijk (3–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Helmond Sport
Waalwijk
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Helmond Sport
Waalwijk
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Helmond Sport | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 2 |
| xPoints | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| xG per match | 0.57 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| Playing style | Helmond Sport | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.56 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 253 | 325 |
| Passes against per match | 480 | 348 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.2 | 29.4 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Helmond Sport | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.14 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.64 |
| Other | Helmond Sport | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| The goalkeepers | Menno Bergsen (Helmond Sport) | Niek Schiks (Waalwijk) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 6 |
| Save % | 57% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk according to our model?
The model gives Waalwijk a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helmond Sport 30%, draw 25%, Waalwijk 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.