Eerste Divisie28°11 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Den BoschDen BoschCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Heracles Almelo (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Den Bosch @ 4.95 (+55 %)

    Heracles Almelo – Den Bosch · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Heracles Almelo 46%X 22%31% Den Bosch · 2

    Analysis: Heracles Almelo – Den Bosch

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    A sequence of 13 consecutive league matches with a goal speaks volumes about Den Bosch's attacking consistency, even if their results haven't always matched. Yet, a deeper dive into the numbers paints a more complex picture. Heracles Almelo, while only posting three points to Den Bosch's one, show a noticeable edge in expected metrics. Their xG per match clocks a remarkable 3.2 compared to Den Bosch's 1.5, indicating a greater propensity to create quality chances.

    Heracles Almelo, true to their style, often rely on a counter-attacking strategy peppered with crosses, a similar approach to Den Bosch's. But it’s in defense where Heracles truly distance themselves: an xGA of 0.92 per match suggests tighter defensive structures compared to Den Bosch's more leaky 1.6. This defensive prowess combined with their attacking capabilities suggests a nod to Heracles.

    The model probabilities favor Heracles Almelo at 46%, with Den Bosch at 31% and a draw at 22%. The most likely scorelines hover around the margins, with 1-1 (12%) and 2-1 (9%) suggesting a tightly contested affair. However, Heracles' defensive edge may prove decisive, potentially tipping the balance towards a 2-1 victory in their favor. The expected goals of 1.56 to 1.43 reinforce a narrow win, yet these figures also support the lean towards over 2.5 goals, rated at 57%.

    As for betting angles, the sharpest edge lies with Heracles Almelo to win at some bookmakers offering odds around 2.10. With their superior expected goals and defensive stats, they hold a clear value edge. However, Den Bosch's relentless scoring streak shouldn't be ignored, hinting at a high-scoring encounter that sees both teams finding the net. The over 2.5 goals market, given the probability and weather not being a factor, presents another tempting punt.

    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Form W
    League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #3xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Sem SchepermanCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
    • Jean-Paul N'djoliCAMxG 0.61 · xT 0.33
    • David Vicente RoblesRWBxG 0.32 · xT 0.04
    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form DLDLD
    League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #10xP/match #9Points #10
    Key players
    • Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.34 · xT 0.26
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.44 · xT 0.04
    • Jack Winston De VriesFxG 0.13 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Heracles Almelo – Den Bosch

    Predicted score matrix

    Den Bosch →
    Heracles Almelo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.3%
    0–16.9%
    0–25.1%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–07.5%
    1–111.5%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.1%
    2–18.8%
    2–26.3%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.6%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.5%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,56–1,43
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.58EV+10%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.49

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Heracles Almelo to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.05

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Heracles Almelo to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Sem Scheperman to score16%

    Combined probability

    4%

    Fair odds

    23.94

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score23%
    • Kevin Antonio Felida to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    41.82

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Den Bosch31% probability@4.95BetsafeEV+55%
    • 2 · Den Bosch31% probability@4.95BetssonEV+55%
    • 2 · Den Bosch31% probability@4.95NordicbetEV+55%
    Bookmaker1 · Heracles AlmeloX2 · Den Bosch
    Betsafe1.554.20
    EV+ 55%
    4.95
    Betsson1.554.20
    EV+ 55%
    4.95
    Nordicbet1.554.20
    EV+ 55%
    4.95

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:35

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Den Bosch have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Heracles Almelo
    Den Bosch
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Heracles Almelo (4–3)
    Den Bosch (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Heracles Almelo
    Sem Scheperman: 45 passningar, xT 0.05SchepermanMario Borac: 33 passningar, xT 0.03BoracDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 33 passningar, xT 0.01KustDavid Vicente Robles: 32 passningar, xT 0.03RoblesDamon Mirani: 31 passningar, xT 0.12MiraniFabian de Keijzer: 30 passningar, xT 0.14KeijzerManny Rodriguez Baldera: 25 passningar, xT 0.24BalderaMax Hauswirth: 21 passningar, xT -0.03HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 19 passningar, xT 0.57GilstChafik Abbas: 12 passningar, xT 0.14AbbasJeff Jason Reine-Adélaïde: 10 passningar, xT 0Reine-Adélaïde
    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 36 passningar, xT 0.09FortesHessel Eikelboom: 32 passningar, xT 0.09EikelboomDevon Findell De Corte: 25 passningar, xT 0.24CorteStan Maas: 25 passningar, xT 0.04MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 24 passningar, xT 0.12MerbelMees Laros: 22 passningar, xT 0.27LarosJasper van Heertum: 20 passningar, xT 0.03HeertumKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 17 passningar, xT 0.16BokoloSebastian Karlsson Grach: 14 passningar, xT 0GrachKevin Felida: 11 passningar, xT -0.02FelidaSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 10 passningar, xT 0.03Barglan
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Heracles Almelo
    Sem Scheperman: 45 passningar, xT 0.05SchepermanMario Borac: 33 passningar, xT 0.03BoracDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 33 passningar, xT 0.01KustDavid Vicente Robles: 32 passningar, xT 0.03RoblesDamon Mirani: 31 passningar, xT 0.12MiraniFabian de Keijzer: 30 passningar, xT 0.14KeijzerManny Rodriguez Baldera: 25 passningar, xT 0.24BalderaMax Hauswirth: 21 passningar, xT -0.03HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 19 passningar, xT 0.57GilstChafik Abbas: 12 passningar, xT 0.14AbbasJeff Jason Reine-Adélaïde: 10 passningar, xT 0Reine-Adélaïde
    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 36 passningar, xT 0.09FortesHessel Eikelboom: 32 passningar, xT 0.09EikelboomDevon Findell De Corte: 25 passningar, xT 0.24CorteStan Maas: 25 passningar, xT 0.04MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 24 passningar, xT 0.12MerbelMees Laros: 22 passningar, xT 0.27LarosJasper van Heertum: 20 passningar, xT 0.03HeertumKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 17 passningar, xT 0.16BokoloSebastian Karlsson Grach: 14 passningar, xT 0GrachKevin Felida: 11 passningar, xT -0.02FelidaSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 10 passningar, xT 0.03Barglan

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHeracles AlmeloDen Bosch
    Points31
    xPoints2.51.6
    xG per match3.21.5
    xGA per match0.921.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.630.51
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190
    Playing styleHeracles AlmeloDen Bosch
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.670.46
    xT per match2.21.3
    xTA per match1.42.6
    Won balls, offensive half3532
    Pressing intensity0.230.25
    Pressing efficiency0.380.41
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.46
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1629
    Pass completion %0.730.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.64
    Passes per match307263
    Passes against per match308247
    Switches of play per match23.710.1
    Long balls per match4141
    Set piecesHeracles AlmeloDen Bosch
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match4.97
    Corners against per match4.95
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.14
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.8
    OtherHeracles AlmeloDen Bosch
    Throw-in control0.650.65
    The goalkeepersDamon Mirani (Heracles Almelo)Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)
    Saves13
    Save %100%75%
    xG prevented100%77%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Heracles Almelo vs Den Bosch according to our model?

    The model gives Heracles Almelo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heracles Almelo 46%, draw 22%, Den Bosch 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    TOP OssTOP Oss
    1–2
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    1 25%X 26%2 49%
    The model called the outcome
    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    3–4
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    1 40%X 28%2 32%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.