01 · 2 legs
Safe
- NAC Breda to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Eerste Divisie29°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
NAC BredaPossession & high pressvs
VVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · NAC Breda (56%)Best value by the model: 2 · VVV-Venlo @ 5.90 (+23 %)
NAC Breda – VVV-Venlo · Eerste Divisie
1 · NAC Breda 56%X 23%21% VVV-Venlo · 2
56%
23%
21%
Analysis: NAC Breda – VVV-Venlo
Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work
Five. That’s the number of unbeaten league games NAC Breda rides into their clash against VVV Venlo. A critical stat, considering they’ve found the back of the net in 16 straight matches. It's the type of consistency that shrugs off any notion of luck. The model gives them a 56% chance of winning, and the numbers back it up: expected goals of 1.82 compared to VVV Venlo’s 1.11 points to a home side ready to dictate the match.
NAC Breda benefits from a tactical approach rooted in possession and high pressing, while VVV Venlo relies on counter-attacks and crossing. This clash of styles could tilt the game in the favour of the home side if they successfully disrupt VVV Venlo’s rhythm and press high up the pitch. The last two head-to-head encounters since 2023 have been split evenly, but with only two matches, that sample is too small to carry much weight against current form and expected goals.
VVV Venlo’s strategy might struggle against NAC's relentless pressing, especially given Venlo's lower xG and higher xGA per match—0.92 and 3.2, respectively. This suggests a defensive frailty that NAC Breda's attack, currently averaging 1.9 xG per match, is primed to exploit. Despite a 21% chance of winning, Venlo will need more than hope to breach NAC Breda’s unbeaten momentum.
Given the expected goals and the 56% over 2.5 goals probability, this match could see NAC Breda edging closer to a 2-1 victory. The weather, if calm, won’t dampen the prospects for goals. For those with a betting mind, Bet365 offers reasonable value on NAC Breda to win at odds of 1.75. An enticing option, considering NAC's form and attacking prowess.
NAC BredaForm DWDDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #19xT #2xP/match #19Points #3
VVV-VenloForm LDLWL
League ranking xG #17xGA #20xT #8xP/match #20Points #14
Key players
- Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
- Alex Adrianus Antonius SchalkFxG 0.00 · xT -0.04
- Éanna ClancyCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: NAC Breda – VVV-Venlo
Predicted score matrix
VVV-Venlo →
NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–15.6%
0–23.3%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.4%
1–111.1%
1–26.0%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.8%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.4%
3–15.9%
3–23.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.7%
4+–14.1%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,82–1,11
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.48EV+9%
Over 2,556%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- NAC Breda to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Charles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Charles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym to score26%
- Gabin Blancquart to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · VVV-Venlo21% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+23%
- 2 · VVV-Venlo21% probability@5.90BetssonEV+23%
- 2 · VVV-Venlo21% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+23%
| Bookmaker | 1 · NAC Breda | X | 2 · VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.49 | 4.20 | EV+ 23% 5.90 |
| Betsson | 1.49 | 4.20 | EV+ 23% 5.90 |
| Nordicbet | 1.49 | 4.20 | EV+ 23% 5.90 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 12:35
Odds movement
10 %
65 %60 %
1.49 → 1.49
X0 %
24 %19 %
4.20 → 4.20
20 %
18 %13 %
5.90 → 5.90
Over 2,5+1 %
65 %60 %
1.50 → 1.52
Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesNAC Breda 1Draw 0VVV-Venlo 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- NAC Breda have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
NAC Breda
VVV-Venlo
NAC Breda (2–1)
VVV-Venlo (3–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
VVV-Venlo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
VVV-Venlo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | NAC Breda | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 0 |
| xPoints | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 0.92 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.6 | 0.63 |
| Playing style | NAC Breda | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.82 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 24 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 555 | 308 |
| Passes against per match | 176 | 307 |
| Switches of play per match | 40.3 | 26.6 |
| Long balls per match | 51 | 35 |
| Set pieces | NAC Breda | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 8.1 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.1 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.6 |
| Other | NAC Breda | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda) | Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 4 |
| Save % | 75% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 68% | 16% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins NAC Breda vs VVV-Venlo according to our model?
The model gives NAC Breda a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NAC Breda 56%, draw 23%, VVV-Venlo 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.