Waalwijk vs Dordrecht: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie14 August 202627°9 km/h

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WaalwijkCounter-attacks & crosses

DordrechtPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Waalwijk (54%)

1 · Waalwijk 54%X 22%24% Dordrecht · 2

54%

22%

24%

Analysis: Waalwijk – Dordrecht

Marcus Johansson · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

RKC Waalwijk's impressive attacking run, with goals in 23 consecutive league matches, sets the stage for this clash against Dordrecht. However, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals a narrative layered with intrigue. Despite RKC Waalwijk's scoring prowess, their defensive frailties are exposed by an xGA of 2.0 per match, which Dordrecht could exploit with their possession-based approach.

RKC Waalwijk have a slight edge on home turf, given a modest 54% model probability of victory. Yet, it’s worth noting that Dordrecht’s xPoints of 1.6 and a superior defensive record tilt the scales subtly in their favor when it comes to efficiency and resilience. The head-to-head sample is limited to just two matches, which saw RKC Waalwijk unbeaten, but such a small sample doesn't weigh heavily against the broader context of each team's current form.

At 57%, the over 2.5 goals market reflects the potential for goals, but the tactical style of Dordrecht could temper this, especially if their possession game slows RKC Waalwijk's counter-attacking flair. The most probable scorelines, like 1-1 and 2-1, suggest a close affair. The wind and rain, if present, could further dampen the goal-scoring fiesta, yet it's already considered in the model.

Dordrecht's capacity to generate an xG of 0.37 within 8 seconds of winning the ball reveals a latent threat that could catch RKC Waalwijk off guard, especially given their defensive vulnerabilities. But for those seeking a sharp betting angle, the odds on RKC Waalwijk at 1.88 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a slight edge of value according to the model's prediction. A 1% margin may not be earth-shattering, but in a match finely balanced, it might just be the sliver of insight needed.

Waalwijk

Form DWLWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #5xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.06
Nazjir HeldLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.70
Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Dordrecht

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #14xP/match #8Points #5

Key players

Yannick Fereira EduardoFxG 0.50 · xT 0.03
Nick VenemaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14
Joep van der SluijsLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Waalwijk – Dordrecht

Predicted score matrix

Dordrecht →

Waalwijk →

0–05.4%

0–15.7%

0–23.5%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.9%

1–111.1%

1–26.3%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.4%

2–19.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.0%

3–15.9%

3–23.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.4%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,81–1,17

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.32

Over 2,557%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Waalwijk to win54%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Waalwijk to win54%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Rein van Hedel to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Rein van Hedel to score25%
Sem Valk to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Waalwijk	X	2 · Dordrecht
Betsafe	1.85	3.65	3.70
Betsson	1.85	3.65	3.70
Nordicbet	1.85	3.65	3.70

Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:35

Odds movement

1-2 %

52 %47 %

1.88 → 1.85

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.65

20 %

28 %23 %

3.70 → 3.70

Over 2,5-2 %

62 %57 %

1.58 → 1.55

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Waalwijk 1Draw 1Dordrecht 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

RKC Waalwijk have scored in 23 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Waalwijk

Dordrecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Waalwijk (1–1)

Dordrecht (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Waalwijk

Dordrecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Waalwijk

Dordrecht

The teams in numbers

Performance	Waalwijk	Dordrecht
Points	1	3
xPoints	0.8	1.6
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	2	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.01	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.83	0.08

Playing style	Waalwijk	Dordrecht
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.58	0.62
xT per match	1.6	1.1
xTA per match	1.8	0.76
Won balls, offensive half	19	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.12
Entries into the box per match	19	18
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.73
Passes per match	406	325
Passes against per match	275	284
Switches of play per match	36.5	17.1
Long balls per match	29	49

Set pieces	Waalwijk	Dordrecht
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	2	8.1
Corners against per match	5.9	3
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.83	0.33

Other	Waalwijk	Dordrecht
Throw-in control	0.64	0.83

The goalkeepers	Niek Schiks (Waalwijk)	Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)
Saves	3	5
Save %	75%	83%
xG prevented	43%	90%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Waalwijk vs Dordrecht according to our model?

The model gives Waalwijk a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waalwijk 54%, draw 22%, Dordrecht 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.