01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Roda to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Eerste Divisie29°13 km/h
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RodaPossession controlvs
Helmond SportLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Roda (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Helmond Sport @ 4.45 (+26 %)
Roda – Helmond Sport · Eerste Divisie
1 · Roda 48%X 24%28% Helmond Sport · 2
48%
24%
28%
Analysis: Roda – Helmond Sport
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Roda JC Kerkrade might be sitting at zero points, but their underlying metrics suggest a team punching below its weight. Their expected goals per match stand at 1.7, significantly higher than Helmond Sport's 0.94, which indicates an attacking threat that hasn't translated into tangible results yet. Despite a faltering start, the model still leans towards Roda JC Kerkrade with a 48% probability of victory, reflecting their better xG and xGA metrics compared to Helmond Sport.
Roda JC Kerkrade's playing style, based on possession control, might be the antidote to Helmond Sport's direct approach. This clash of tactics often results in intriguing matchups, and the odds are that Roda JC will dictate the tempo. However, the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% suggests a draw isn't out of the question, as both teams have vulnerabilities at the back.
Head-to-head encounters show a small sample size of just four matches since 2023, with Roda JC Kerkrade slightly edging it with two wins to Helmond's one. While historical results are not definitive, they do add a layer of intrigue to this meeting. Helmond Sport's point advantage in the standings, albeit slim, gives them a psychological boost, but Roda JC's superior xPoints (1.7 vs. 1.3) implies that they have been the unluckier side.
Helmond Sport presents an intriguing value proposition for bettors, with a notable edge available. The away win is priced at 4.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a 21% value edge as per the model's 28% rating. While Roda JC Kerkrade is the likely candidate to claim the three points, those looking for a high-value punt might find this opportunity too tempting to ignore.
Ultimately, I'd peg this one at a tight 2-1 in favor of Roda JC Kerkrade, with the match likely to flirt with the over 2.5 goals threshold, backed by a 59% probability. The clash of styles, the home side's control versus Helmond's direct play, should make for an engaging contest, and the value on the away win adds a tantalizing twist to the proceedings.
RodaForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #15xP/match #6Points #20
Key players
- Anthony Van Den HurkFxG 0.54 · xT 0.03
- Michael John BreijRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.16
- Iman GriffithLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
Helmond SportForm DDWLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #17xP/match #11Points #13
Key players
- Xander Jan Van der VeldeLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Helgi Frodi IngasonLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
- Michel LudwigCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.03
Match prediction: Roda – Helmond Sport
Predicted score matrix
Helmond Sport →
Roda →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–15.4%
0–23.5%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.2%
1–110.7%
1–26.4%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.7%
2–25.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.9%
3–16.0%
3–23.7%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–03.4%
4+–14.2%
4+–22.6%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,85–1,23
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.08
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Roda to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score38%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Anthony Edsel Johannes van den Hurk to score38%
- Brian Lukas Koglin to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Helmond Sport28% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+26%
- 2 · Helmond Sport28% probability@4.45BetssonEV+26%
- 2 · Helmond Sport28% probability@4.45NordicbetEV+26%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Roda | X | 2 · Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.72 | 3.65 | EV+ 26% 4.45 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.65 | EV+ 26% 4.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.72 | 3.65 | EV+ 26% 4.45 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:35
Odds movement
1-2 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.72
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.65 → 3.65
2+7 %
24 %19 %
4.15 → 4.45
Over 2,50 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.68
Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRoda 2Draw 1Helmond Sport 1
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Roda
Helmond Sport
Roda (0–1)
Helmond Sport (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Roda
Helmond Sport
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Roda
Helmond Sport
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Roda | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 0.94 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Roda | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| Passes per match | 375 | 231 |
| Passes against per match | 287 | 493 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.3 | 18.6 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Roda | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 6.8 |
| Corners against per match | 0 | 2.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.29 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0 | 0 |
| Other | Roda | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Justin Treichel (Roda) | Menno Bergsen (Helmond Sport) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 2 |
| Save % | 86% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 74% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Roda vs Helmond Sport according to our model?
The model gives Roda a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roda 48%, draw 24%, Helmond Sport 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.