01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Vitesse or draw (X2)62%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Eerste Divisie18°4,3 mm15 km/h
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Jong UtrechtPossession control1–3
VitesseLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Vitesse (43%)Best value by the model: 1 · Jong Utrecht @ 3.25 (+1 %)
Jong Utrecht – Vitesse · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong Utrecht 31%X 25%43% Vitesse · 2
31%
25%
43%
Analysis: Jong Utrecht – Vitesse
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
Four straight defeats in head-to-head encounters since 2023 might haunt Utrecht U21 as they prepare to face Vitesse Arnhem again. Yet, this record should be taken with a pinch of salt, as the sample size of four matches is limited and doesn't tell the whole story. The odds lean towards Vitesse Arnhem, who have a 43% chance of winning according to the model, slightly ahead of Utrecht U21 at 31%. But with rain and potentially slippery conditions, surprises can't be ruled out.
Utrecht U21, while struggling with points, aim to leverage their possession-based style to disrupt Vitesse’s direct approach. Their expected goals (1.51) suggest they are capable of scoring, even if past results haven't been kind. Vitesse Arnhem, known for their low defence and direct play, are not impenetrable; they concede an average of 1.6 expected goals against per match, slightly higher than Utrecht U21’s 1.4. These defensive vulnerabilities play into the forecast of both teams finding the net, which stands at a 61% likelihood.
The model’s most likely scoreline of 1-1 (12%) indicates a tightly contested match, with potential for either side to edge it 2-1 or 1-2 (both at 8%). The over 2.5 goals probability is at 58%, making a high-scoring affair slightly favored despite the damp conditions that typically suppress goal tallies. Despite the weather, the numbers suggest a decent chance of goals flowing.
Utrecht U21 stand out in one intriguing aspect: value betting. The home win is priced at 3.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a slender 1% edge according to the model. While not a guarantee, it's a spot where the shrewd punter might find some value, especially given the unpredictable nature of rain-affected games.
Jong UtrechtForm LWDWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #11xP/match #15Points #18
Key players
- Noa DundasFxG 0.37 · xT 0.15
- Viggo PlantingaLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
- Driss LaaouinaCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
VitesseForm WWDLD
League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #4xP/match #4Points #14
Key players
- Omar AchouitarLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.72
- Valon ZumberiCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
- Marco SchikoraCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Final score
1 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Jong Utrecht 31% · Draw 25% · Vitesse 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Jong FC UtrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,70fair 8,25+5 %
MissMatchresultat - VitesseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,58fair 8,38-33 %
HitMatch prediction: Jong Utrecht – Vitesse
Predicted score matrix
Vitesse →
Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–17.1%
0–25.6%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.5%
1–28.4%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.6%
2–18.4%
2–26.3%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.8%
3–14.2%
3–23.2%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,51–1,49
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,542%
@2.18
Over 2,558%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Vitesse or draw (X2)62%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Naoufal Bannis to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Naoufal Bannis to score31%
- Driss Laaouina to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Jong Utrecht31% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+1%
- 1 · Jong Utrecht31% probability@3.25BetssonEV+1%
- 1 · Jong Utrecht31% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+1%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jong Utrecht | X | 2 · Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| Betsson | EV+ 1% 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.08 |
Odds updated 17 Aug, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 11 August — the odds have shortened from 2.48 to 2.18 (−12%).
1-6 %
30 %25 %
3.45 → 3.25
X-5 %
29 %24 %
3.65 → 3.45
2+8 %
49 %44 %
1.92 → 2.08
Over 2,5+8 %
62 %57 %
1.50 → 1.62
Betsson · 19 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 17/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJong Utrecht 0Draw 0Vitesse 4
Goals: 1–9 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong Utrecht
Vitesse
Jong Utrecht (1–2)
Vitesse (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong Utrecht
Vitesse
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong Utrecht
Vitesse
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.1 | 2 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.83 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.01 |
| Playing style | Jong Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 228 | 276 |
| Passes against per match | 334 | 407 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 25.8 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Jong Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 2.9 | 2 |
| xG per corner | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 1 | 0.17 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.5 |
| Other | Jong Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.5 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Mees Eppink (Jong Utrecht) | Connor van den Berg (Vitesse) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 3 |
| Save % | 75% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 77% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse according to our model?
The model gives Vitesse a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Utrecht 31%, draw 25%, Vitesse 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.