Eerste Divisie16°8,3 mm16 km/h

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    VitesseVitesseLow block & direct
    vs
    Almere CityAlmere CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Vitesse (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Almere City @ 3.15 (+9 %)

    Vitesse – Almere City · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Vitesse 39%X 26%35% Almere City · 2

    Analysis: Vitesse – Almere City

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A tantalizing 13-match scoring streak for Jong Almere City FC sets the stage for their clash against Vitesse Arnhem, a side with a penchant for direct play and low defensive resilience. The model leans towards Vitesse Arnhem with a 39% probability of victory, yet this encounter is finely balanced, with Jong Almere City FC not far behind at a 35% chance.

    Jong Almere City FC have shown a consistent ability to find the back of the net, which makes the likelihood of both teams scoring (60%) a compelling prospect. Vitesse Arnhem, favored by expected goals (1.68 vs. 1.34) and xPoints (2.0 vs. 1.1), appears better positioned statistically. Moreover, their capacity to generate xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.83) highlights their directness and potential to exploit transitions, which could unsettle Jong Almere City's counter-attacking setup.

    The weather forecast of 16.1°C with 5.1 mm of rain may dampen scoring opportunities, yet the model still gives a 58% chance for over 2.5 goals. This suggests that the conditions are already factored into the expected goal tally, emphasizing the attacking potential both teams possess despite the rain.

    Vitesse Arnhem’s edge in xG and their style may tip the balance in their favor, pointing towards a 2-1 victory. The slender head-to-head history between the teams (2 matches) isn’t robust enough to outweigh the current form and statistical leanings. While Vitesse hasn't beaten Jong Almere City FC since 2023, the small sample size limits its significance.

    In terms of betting value, Vitesse Arnhem’s win at odds of 2.50 with Bet365 looks enticing given their xG superiority and the model’s lean. However, with the potential for goals, the over 2.5 goals market remains tempting for those seeking a higher-risk play.

    VitesseVitesse
    Form WWDLD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #4xP/match #4Points #14
    Key players
    • Omar AchouitarLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.72
    • Valon ZumberiCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
    • Marco SchikoraCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    Almere CityAlmere City
    Form LLWLD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #1xP/match #14Points #13
    Key players
    • Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06
    • Enzo CornelisseFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
    • Junior-Morau KadileLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Vitesse – Almere City

    Predicted score matrix

    Almere City →
    Vitesse →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.2%
    0–16.2%
    0–24.4%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–07.9%
    1–111.3%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–19.2%
    2–26.2%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–15.2%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–22.1%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,68–1,34
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.32
    Over 2,558%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vitesse or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.77

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vitesse or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Naoufal Bannis to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Naoufal Bannis to score30%
    • Hamza El Dahri to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Almere City35% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Almere City35% probability@3.15BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Almere City35% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VitesseX2 · Almere City
    Betsafe2.123.45
    EV+ 9%
    3.15
    Betsson2.123.45
    EV+ 9%
    3.15
    Nordicbet2.123.45
    EV+ 9%
    3.15

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Vitesse win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 2.62 to 2.12 (−19%).

    1-19 %
    45 %35 %

    2.62 → 2.12

    X0 %
    31 %21 %

    3.45 → 3.45

    2+30 %
    38 %28 %

    2.42 → 3.15

    Over 2,5-2 %
    65 %55 %

    1.58 → 1.55

    Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Vitesse 0Draw 1Almere City 1
    Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Almere City FC have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vitesse
    Almere City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vitesse (1–1)
    Almere City (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vitesse
    Omar Achouitar: 53 passningar, xT 0.73AchouitarValon Zumberi: 29 passningar, xT 0.05ZumberiRicardo-Felipe Schwarz: 29 passningar, xT 0.12SchwarzMarco Schikora: 27 passningar, xT 0.04SchikoraAyman Sellouf: 26 passningar, xT 0.12SelloufConnor van den Berg: 25 passningar, xT 0.09BergSolomon Owusu Bonnah: 24 passningar, xT 0.01BonnahMathijs Marschalk: 24 passningar, xT 0.02MarschalkChiel Olde Keizer: 23 passningar, xT 0.49KeizerNaoufal Bannis: 8 passningar, xT -0.03BannisEduard Probst: 4 passningar, xT 0.04Probst
    Almere City
    Emmanuel van de Blaak: 30 passningar, xT 0.04BlaakHamza El Dahri: 30 passningar, xT 0.28DahriJoey Jacobs: 24 passningar, xT 0.17JacobsJereno van Gom: 23 passningar, xT 0.09GomWessel Speel: 18 passningar, xT 0.09SpeelEmanuel Poku: 18 passningar, xT 0.61PokuMarley Dors: 17 passningar, xT 0.21DorsEnzo Cornelisse: 16 passningar, xT 0.03CornelisseTeun Bijleveld: 16 passningar, xT 0.04BijleveldFerdy Druijf: 14 passningar, xT 0.26DruijfBas Huisman: 10 passningar, xT 0.05Huisman
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vitesse
    Omar Achouitar: 53 passningar, xT 0.73AchouitarValon Zumberi: 29 passningar, xT 0.05ZumberiRicardo-Felipe Schwarz: 29 passningar, xT 0.12SchwarzMarco Schikora: 27 passningar, xT 0.04SchikoraAyman Sellouf: 26 passningar, xT 0.12SelloufConnor van den Berg: 25 passningar, xT 0.09BergSolomon Owusu Bonnah: 24 passningar, xT 0.01BonnahMathijs Marschalk: 24 passningar, xT 0.02MarschalkChiel Olde Keizer: 23 passningar, xT 0.49KeizerNaoufal Bannis: 8 passningar, xT -0.03BannisEduard Probst: 4 passningar, xT 0.04Probst
    Almere City
    Emmanuel van de Blaak: 30 passningar, xT 0.04BlaakHamza El Dahri: 30 passningar, xT 0.28DahriJoey Jacobs: 24 passningar, xT 0.17JacobsJereno van Gom: 23 passningar, xT 0.09GomWessel Speel: 18 passningar, xT 0.09SpeelEmanuel Poku: 18 passningar, xT 0.61PokuMarley Dors: 17 passningar, xT 0.21DorsEnzo Cornelisse: 16 passningar, xT 0.03CornelisseTeun Bijleveld: 16 passningar, xT 0.04BijleveldFerdy Druijf: 14 passningar, xT 0.26DruijfBas Huisman: 10 passningar, xT 0.05Huisman

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVitesseAlmere City
    Points11
    xPoints21.1
    xG per match21.6
    xGA per match1.61.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.830
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.010.52
    Playing styleVitesseAlmere City
    Build-up efficiency0.310.32
    Field tilt0.420.54
    xT per match1.82.6
    xTA per match1.61.3
    Won balls, offensive half2730
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.220.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.43
    Entries into the box per match1229
    Entries into the box against1913
    Pass completion %0.710.67
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.59
    Passes per match276248
    Passes against per match407264
    Switches of play per match25.824.3
    Long balls per match3938
    Set piecesVitesseAlmere City
    xG from free kicks00.1
    Corners per match5.95
    Corners against per match27.1
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.050.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.170.2
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.86
    OtherVitesseAlmere City
    Throw-in control0.690.71
    The goalkeepersConnor van den Berg (Vitesse)Wessel Speel (Almere City)
    Saves32
    Save %100%67%
    xG prevented100%74%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vitesse vs Almere City according to our model?

    The model gives Vitesse a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitesse 39%, draw 26%, Almere City 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.