01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance De Graafschap or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Eerste Divisie16°13 km/h
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VVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crossesvs
De GraafschapPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · De Graafschap (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.72 (+5 %)
VVV-Venlo – De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie
1 · VVV-Venlo 34%X 25%41% De Graafschap · 2
34%
25%
41%
Analysis: VVV-Venlo – De Graafschap
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Numbers paint the story of expectation and opportunity as VVV Venlo prepares to host De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie. Despite De Graafschap's recent form showing just a single point from their matches, the model has them as slight favorites with a 41% probability of victory compared to VVV Venlo's 34%. The most probable outcome, however, remains a 1-1 draw, calculated at 11%, underscoring the close nature of this matchup.
VVV Venlo might sit with more points, but they have often relied on soaking up pressure and hitting on the counter, a style that might struggle against De Graafschap's high press and possession approach. The expected goals (xG) suggest an edge for De Graafschap, reflecting their tendency to create more opportunities, averaging 1.64 xG per game against VVV's 1.54. Their ability to generate xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball also shows a more efficient transition game, which could be crucial in exploiting any lapses from VVV's defense.
VVV's defensive frailties are evident in their 2.5 xGA per match, a significant concern against a side like De Graafschap, who not only have the tools to break them down but also possess a marginally better defensive record themselves. With both teams prone to leaking goals, the numbers point to an open game. However, there might be a contrarian angle; the market's pricing presents value in betting under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.72 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, with the model suggesting a 39% probability—5% above the market consensus.
Expect a tight contest but lean towards De Graafschap to edge it with a 2-1 scoreline, justified by their superior xG metrics and tactical setup. Yet, the shrewd bettor might find more value in the odds for a lower-scoring affair, counterintuitive as that may seem given the attacking profiles.
VVV-VenloForm DLWLW
League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #15xP/match #19Points #10
Key players
- Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.34 · xT 0.02
- Alex Adrianus Antonius SchalkFxG 0.05 · xT -0.02
- Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.28
De GraafschapForm DWLDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #7xP/match #21Points #18
Key players
- Denzel EijkenFxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
- Donny WarmerdamCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
- Joran HardemanCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: VVV-Venlo – De Graafschap
Predicted score matrix
De Graafschap →
VVV-Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–16.5%
0–25.6%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–06.1%
1–110.8%
1–28.6%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.9%
2–18.1%
2–26.6%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.5%
3–14.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.8%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,54–1,64
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.72EV+5%
Over 2,561%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance De Graafschap or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Julian Kania to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Julian Kania to score34%
- Éanna Clancy to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.539% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.539% probability@2.72BetssonEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.539% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · VVV-Venlo | X | 2 · De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betsson | EV+ 4% 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 07:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an De Graafschap win since 17 August — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.05 (−12%).
1+15 %
37 %27 %
2.65 → 3.05
X0 %
31 %21 %
3.60 → 3.60
2-12 %
47 %37 %
2.32 → 2.05
Over 2,5-1 %
69 %59 %
1.46 → 1.44
Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesVVV-Venlo 1Draw 1De Graafschap 2
Goals: 9–10 (⌀ 4,8)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
VVV-Venlo
De Graafschap
VVV-Venlo (5–4)
De Graafschap (3–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
VVV-Venlo
De Graafschap
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
VVV-Venlo
De Graafschap
The teams in numbers
| Performance | VVV-Venlo | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.46 | 0.08 |
| Playing style | VVV-Venlo | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 0.96 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 256 | 459 |
| Passes against per match | 368 | 263 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.2 | 55.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 57 |
| Set pieces | VVV-Venlo | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 7.4 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Other | VVV-Venlo | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo) | Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 8 |
| Save % | 69% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins VVV-Venlo vs De Graafschap according to our model?
The model gives De Graafschap a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VVV-Venlo 34%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.