Derby County vs Swansea City: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship29 August 2026 13:30 CESTPride Park, Derby17°9,0 mm16 km/h

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Derby CountyCounter-attacks & crosses

Swansea CityPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Derby County (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.35 (+1 %)

1 · Derby County 37%X 30%32% Swansea City · 2

37%

30%

32%

Analysis: Derby County – Swansea City

Oscar Nilsson · 24 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Since 2023, Derby and Swansea have split their encounters evenly with two wins apiece, but with only four matches in the sample, it sheds limited light on the current dynamics. What really catches the eye is the divergence between Derby's potent attacking streak and Swansea's resilient unbeaten run in their last five league matches. Derby have consistently found the net in their last 11 league outings, while Swansea's recent form suggests they're not easy to break down. These opposing trends set the stage for an intriguing clash.

Looking at the numbers, the hosts have a slight edge in the model with a 37% chance of victory. This is bolstered by their expected goals tally of 1.26 compared to the visitors' 1.15. Meanwhile, Swansea's ongoing unbeaten streak is not without merit, even though they lag behind in expected goals per match at just 0.79. Yet, they compensate with a tighter defense, as seen in their lower expected goals against (1.1) compared to Derby's 1.9. This balancing act might see the match tilt towards a narrow outcome.

The model suggests a modest probability for fireworks, with over 2.5 goals sitting at just 43%, and both teams likely to score at 49%. The most probable outcomes hover around a low-scoring draw or a tight single-goal victory either way. Given these indicators, a 1-1 draw seems the likeliest result, with Derby perhaps edging a 1-0 if they can capitalize on a counter.

For the sharp punter, the standout value is in the under 1.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer enticing odds of 3.57, which the model sees as having an 8% edge. While Derby's scoring streak might give pause, the numbers back this play, making it an intriguing angle for those seeking value.

Derby County

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #20xT #5xP/match #19Points #18

Key players

Carlton MorrisFxG 0.43 · xT 0.06
Bobby Lamont ClarkCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.30
Oscar Luigi FrauloFxG 0.36 · xT 0.20

Swansea City

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #21xGA #8xT #17xP/match #22Points #8

Key players

Josh TymonLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.19
Joseph Amankwaah OpokuRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.02
Jay FultonCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Derby County – Swansea City

Predicted score matrix

Swansea City →

Derby County →

0–09.3%

0–19.9%

0–25.9%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.9%

1–113.4%

1–27.5%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.1%

2–18.2%

2–24.7%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.0%

3–13.4%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,15

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.74

Over 2,543%

@2.09

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Derby County or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Derby County or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals57%
David Ikechukwu Ozoh to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Adam Uche Idah to score24%
Jay Fulton to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
2 · Swansea City32% probability@3.13PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Derby County	X	2 · Swansea City
Betsafe	2.32	3.30	3.05
Betsson	2.32	3.30	3.05
Nordicbet	2.32	3.30	3.05
Pinnacle	2.30	EV+ 1% 3.35	EV+ 1% 3.13

Odds updated 26 Aug, 16:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 1.89 to 1.74 (−8%).

1+2 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.30

X-4 %

30 %25 %

3.50 → 3.35

2+1 %

33 %28 %

3.09 → 3.13

Over 2,5+9 %

50 %45 %

1.93 → 2.09

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Derby County 2Draw 0Swansea City 2

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Derby County have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Swansea City are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Derby County

Swansea City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Derby County (3–4)

Swansea City (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Derby County

Swansea City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Derby County

Swansea City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Derby County	Swansea City
Points	1	4
xPoints	2	1.8
xG per match	1.5	0.79
xGA per match	1.9	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.08

Playing style	Derby County	Swansea City
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.27
Field tilt	0.48	0.72
xT per match	1.3	0.76
xTA per match	0.79	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	30	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.46
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.43
Entries into the box per match	15	11
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.72	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.72
Passes per match	292	387
Passes against per match	357	180
Switches of play per match	19.8	17.5
Long balls per match	38	28

Set pieces	Derby County	Swansea City
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	5.3	5.5
Corners against per match	5.8	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.16	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.71

Other	Derby County	Swansea City
Throw-in control	0.77	0.79

The goalkeepers	Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County)	Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City)
Saves	6	4
Save %	60%	80%
xG prevented	53%	81%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Derby County vs Swansea City according to our model?

The model gives Derby County a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Derby County 37%, draw 30%, Swansea City 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.