Preston North End vs Bristol City: Prediction & Odds (1 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship1 September 2026 20:45 CESTDeepdale, Preston17°21 km/h

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Preston North EndPossession control

Bristol CityLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Preston North End (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.93 (+4 %)

1 · Preston North End 37%X 27%36% Bristol City · 2

37%

27%

36%

Analysis: Preston North End – Bristol City

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Preston North End's recent struggles, highlighted by a four-game losing streak, set the stage for their clash with Bristol City. Despite their current form, the model suggests a slight edge for the hosts, pegging their victory chances at 37% compared to the visitors' 36%. It's a game balanced on a knife-edge, shaped by contrasting styles: Preston's possession control against Bristol's resolute low block and direct play.

Since 2023, the head-to-head record between these sides stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss for Preston. Though it's a small sample size, it does suggest parity, with each team claiming a share of the spoils. Yet, recent points tell a different story: Bristol City has outperformed by accruing four points to Preston's zero, though the xPoints metric leans towards the hosts.

Preston's expected goals (xG) and goals against (xGA) figures—1.0 and 1.4 per match, respectively—indicate a team that's underperforming both offensively and defensively. Bristol, meanwhile, shows even lesser attacking promise with an xG of 0.86 but leaks more goals with an xGA of 1.8. This suggests a game likely to be decided by fine margins, where converting limited chances will be crucial.

The model gives a 46% chance for over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight encounter. For punters, the greatest value lies in under 2.5 goals, offered at 1.86 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Though the model shows no edge, the under's 54% probability aligns with both teams' current attacking inefficiencies. Expect a low-scoring grind, with a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 either way the most likely outcomes.

Preston North End

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #9xT #18xP/match #18Points #23

Key players

Alfie Sean DevineRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
Andrew HughesLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Liam LindsayCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.04

Bristol City

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #22xGA #18xT #22xP/match #20Points #12

Key players

Yu HirakawaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Sam GreenwoodLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.00
Rob DickieCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Preston North End – Bristol City

Predicted score matrix

Bristol City →

Preston North End →

0–08.4%

0–19.7%

0–26.4%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.8%

1–113.1%

1–28.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.4%

2–18.1%

2–25.1%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.7%

3–13.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,26

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.93EV+4%

Over 2,546%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Preston North End or draw (1X)64%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Preston North End or draw (1X)64%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Lewis Norman Dobbin to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Lewis Norman Dobbin to score26%
Alistair Edward McCann to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.554% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.554% probability@1.93Bet365EV+4%reference odds
Under 2.554% probability@1.90BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Preston North End	X	2 · Bristol City
Bet365	2.55	3.25	2.55
Betsafe	2.55	3.40	2.65
Betsson	2.55	3.40	2.65
Nordicbet	2.55	3.40	2.65
Pinnacle	2.63	3.41	2.64

Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:28

Odds movement

1+4 %

40 %35 %

2.53 → 2.63

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.34 → 3.41

2-5 %

37 %32 %

2.79 → 2.64

Over 2,5-3 %

52 %47 %

1.95 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Preston North End 1Draw 2Bristol City 1

Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Preston North End have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Preston North End

Bristol City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Preston North End (2–6)

Bristol City (4–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Preston North End

Bristol City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Preston North End

Bristol City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Preston North End	Bristol City
Points	0	4
xPoints	3.3	3
xG per match	1	0.86
xGA per match	1.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.24

Playing style	Preston North End	Bristol City
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.4	0.27
xT per match	0.73	0.65
xTA per match	0.79	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	24	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	6
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.69	0.6
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.52
Passes per match	268	184
Passes against per match	376	360
Switches of play per match	14.5	9.1
Long balls per match	22	15

Set pieces	Preston North End	Bristol City
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.11
Corners per match	3.7	3.9
Corners against per match	5.4	7.5
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.74

Other	Preston North End	Bristol City
Throw-in control	0.67	0.68

The goalkeepers	Daniel Lønne Iversen (Preston North End)	Rob Dickie (Bristol City)
Saves	6	7
Save %	50%	100%
xG prevented	19%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Preston North End vs Bristol City according to our model?

The model gives Preston North End a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Preston North End 37%, draw 27%, Bristol City 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.