Stoke City vs Norwich City: Prediction & Odds (1 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship1 September 2026 21:00 CESTbet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent16°18 km/h

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Stoke CityPossession control

Norwich CityPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Norwich City (43%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+13 %)

1 · Stoke City 31%X 26%43% Norwich City · 2

31%

26%

43%

Analysis: Stoke City – Norwich City

Sofia Andersson · 31 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Stoke City's alarming seven-game losing streak sets the stage for a challenging encounter against a Norwich side that's gathered momentum. The model gives the visitors a 43% chance of taking all three points, highlighting their edge in both expected goals (1.33 to 1.16) and xPoints (5.2 to 2.0). While both teams adopt a possession-based style, Norwich's high press could exploit the hosts' vulnerabilities, especially given Stoke's current form.

Despite the recent head-to-head results showing a balanced 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss for both teams since 2023, this small sample is overshadowed by the form and expected goals. Stoke's struggles are evident with a paltry xG per match of 0.72, contrasted with Norwich's 1.9. The defensive metrics favor the visitors as well, with Stoke leaking 2.0 xGA per match, slightly higher than Norwich's 1.9.

In betting terms, there's a clear value in the under 2.5 goals market. Odds of 1.99 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a 9% edge over the model's 55% probability. Given the expected low-scoring nature of the game, a 1-1 draw is the most likely scoreline, with a 0-1 win for Norwich also plausible, and a cautious lean towards under 2.5 goals.

Stoke City

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #24xGA #23xT #5xP/match #24Points #24

Key players

Sam GallagherRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Ethan Stuart William GalbraithFxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
Jun Ho BaeRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23

Norwich City

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #19xT #16xP/match #6Points #17

Key players

Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.17
Pelle MattssonCMxG 0.40 · xT 0.12
Andre Chance BrooksRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Stoke City – Norwich City

Predicted score matrix

Norwich City →

Stoke City →

0–08.7%

0–110.6%

0–27.3%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.3%

1–113.2%

1–28.5%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.6%

2–17.4%

2–24.9%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.2%

3–12.9%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,16–1,33

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@2.01EV+1%

Over 2,545%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Norwich City or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Norwich City or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Oscar Schwartau to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Samuel James Gallagher to score22%
Benjamin David Pearson to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.59% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
Under 0.59% probability@13.00BetssonEV+13%reference odds
Under 0.59% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Stoke City	X	2 · Norwich City
Bet365	2.60	3.30	EV+ 7% 2.50
Betsafe	3.05	3.45	2.25
Betsson	3.05	3.45	2.25
Nordicbet	3.05	3.45	2.25
Pinnacle	3.06	3.49	2.27

Odds updated 31 Aug, 15:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

34 %29 %

3.02 → 3.06

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.47 → 3.49

2-1 %

44 %39 %

2.30 → 2.27

Over 2,50 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Stoke City 1Draw 2Norwich City 1

Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Stoke City have lost 7 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Stoke City

Norwich City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Stoke City (3–9)

Norwich City (5–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Stoke City

Norwich City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Stoke City

Norwich City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Stoke City	Norwich City
Points	0	3
xPoints	2	5.2
xG per match	0.72	1.9
xGA per match	2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.11

Playing style	Stoke City	Norwich City
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.28
Field tilt	0.35	0.5
xT per match	1.2	0.9
xTA per match	0.82	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	28
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.65
Passes per match	266	318
Passes against per match	373	377
Switches of play per match	18.8	18.7
Long balls per match	25	25

Set pieces	Stoke City	Norwich City
xG from free kicks	0.13	0
Corners per match	2.4	4.8
Corners against per match	5.4	5.1
xG per corner	0	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.14	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.38	0.47

Other	Stoke City	Norwich City
Throw-in control	0.82	0.74

The goalkeepers	Viktor Johansson (Stoke City)	Vladan Kovačević (Norwich City)
Saves	7	8
Save %	44%	57%
xG prevented	11%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Stoke City vs Norwich City according to our model?

The model gives Norwich City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stoke City 31%, draw 26%, Norwich City 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.