West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship22 August 2026 16:00 CESTThe Hawthorns, West Bromwich16°10 km/h

West Bromwich AlbionCounter-attacks & crosses

Burnley

The model's lean: 1 · West Bromwich Albion (47%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · West Bromwich Albion 47%X 28%25% Burnley · 2

47%

28%

25%

Analysis: West Bromwich Albion – Burnley

Anna Karlsson · 17 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

West Bromwich Albion strut into this matchup as slight favorites, with a 47% chance of victory against Burnley. It's a curious tilt, given Burnley's remarkable streak of 34 unbeaten league matches. Yet, numbers don't lie, and the home side has a perceptible edge, underscored by expected goals of 1.42 compared to Burnley's 1.03. The model's forecast sees West Bromwich Albion as the team more likely to find the net, despite Burnley's impressive run.

Two matches have transpired between these clubs since 2023, both ending in stalemates. With such a scant sample size, the head-to-head record is a footnote to the narrative, rather than a headline. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, but West Bromwich Albion securing a 1-0 win follows closely with a 12% probability. A goalless affair also lurks at 9%, suggesting a cautious chess match could unfold.

West Bromwich Albion enter this fixture with the wind at their backs, buoyed by the bookmakers' faith. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering a tempting home win at odds of 2.85, punters find an enticing 34% value edge. This is a betting opportunity that defies Burnley’s unbeaten label and suggests a profitable punt on the home team.

Burnley might boast a formidable unbeaten run, but even their staunch defense cannot completely shield them from the analytical truth. The over 2.5 goals market stands at a tepid 44%, with both teams to score at 49%, indicating a tight contest where defenses might stifle attacking flair. Yet, if you're seeking a sharp angle in this matchup, it's the EV+ on West Bromwich Albion's home win that shines brightest, a risk worth considering despite Burnley's daunting record.

West Bromwich Albion

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #18xT #18xP/match #18Points #6

Key players

Alex MowattCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Jayson MolumbyCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Karlan Laughton GrantLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.12

Burnley

Form WWWWD

Match prediction: West Bromwich Albion – Burnley

Predicted score matrix

Burnley →

West Bromwich Albion →

0–09.0%

0–18.6%

0–24.6%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.9%

1–113.0%

1–26.5%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.7%

2–18.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.1%

3–14.2%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-09%
4.2-19%
5.2-09%

Expected goals

1,42–1,03

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.74

Over 2,544%

@2.09

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

West Bromwich Albion to win47%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

West Bromwich Albion to win47%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Aune Selland Heggebø to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Zian Flemming to score24%
Ousmane Diakité to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · West Bromwich Albion47% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
1 · West Bromwich Albion47% probability@2.85BetssonEV+34%reference odds
1 · West Bromwich Albion47% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+34%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · West Bromwich Albion	X	2 · Burnley
Betsafe	EV+ 34% 2.85	3.20	2.50
Betsson	EV+ 34% 2.85	3.20	2.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 34% 2.85	3.20	2.50
Paddy Power	EV+ 32% 2.80	3.30	2.30

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.85

X-4 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.20

2+2 %

40 %35 %

2.45 → 2.50

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.09 → 2.09

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

West Bromwich Albion 0Draw 2Burnley 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Burnley are unbeaten in their last 34 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

West Bromwich Albion

Burnley

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

West Bromwich Albion (2–1)

Burnley (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

West Bromwich Albion

Burnley

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

West Bromwich Albion

Burnley

The goalkeepers	Max Oleary (West Bromwich Albion)	Kyle Walker (Burnley)
Saves	7	2
Save %	88%	100%
xG prevented	79%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley according to our model?

The model gives West Bromwich Albion a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: West Bromwich Albion 47%, draw 28%, Burnley 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.