West Ham United vs Charlton Athletic: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

EFL Championship22 August 2026 16:00 CESTLondon Stadium, London16°12 km/h

West Ham United

Charlton AthleticCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · West Ham United (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Charlton Athletic @ 10.00 (+108 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · West Ham United 54%X 26%21% Charlton Athletic · 2

54%

26%

21%

Analysis: West Ham United – Charlton Athletic

Erik Lindberg · 17 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Fifty-four percent. That's the model's nod to West Ham United's chances of securing a win against Charlton Athletic, and it's not hard to see why. With expected goals at 1.80 to Charlton's 0.90, West Ham have the statistical upper hand. The Hammers are poised to flex their muscles, particularly at home where they have traditionally been strong. However, Charlton's knack for finding the net in their last eight league matches shouldn't be overlooked, even if the model suggests a low-scoring affair.

West Ham United are glaringly the favourites, but the weather might play spoilsport. With 3.0 mm of rain anticipated, the conditions could suppress scoring, keeping the over/under line balanced at 50%. The most likely scorelines — 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 — paint a picture of a potentially tight and cautious game. Yet, Charlton's ability to score consistently, paired with the weather's dampening effect, could make a 1-1 draw more plausible than the 12% model probability might suggest.

Charlton Athletic may only have a 21% chance of winning according to the model, but they offer intriguing value in the betting markets. With odds of 10.0 via Bet365 and 9.2 from Betsafe and Betsson, bettors can find an edge worth considering. This 21% model rating equates to a 108% and 92% edge over these bookmakers, respectively. While it's not a guarantee of victory, it highlights a potential opportunity for those willing to wager against the grain.

Charlton's recent scoring streak and the value in the odds make an upset less improbable. While a West Ham win seems the reasonable pick, the smart money may well be on Charlton defying expectations, especially for the adventurous punter. A scrappy 1-1 draw with both teams scoring is a feasible narrative in this matchup, especially with the chance to exploit the odds on an away win.

West Ham United

Form D

Charlton Athletic

Form DLWLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #12xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.11 · xT -0.01
Conor James CoventryCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Lloyd Richard JonesCBxG 0.27 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: West Ham United – Charlton Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Charlton Athletic →

West Ham United →

0–07.1%

0–15.8%

0–22.7%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.8%

1–111.2%

1–24.9%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.9%

2–19.8%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.5%

3–15.9%

3–22.6%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.4%

4+–13.9%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,80–0,90

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@2.30EV+14%

Over 2,550%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

West Ham United to win54%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

West Ham United to win54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez to score38%
Billy Dawson Koumetio to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Charlton Athletic21% probability@10.00Bet365EV+108%reference odds
2 · Charlton Athletic21% probability@9.20BetsafeEV+92%reference odds
2 · Charlton Athletic21% probability@9.20BetssonEV+92%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · West Ham United	X	2 · Charlton Athletic
Bet365	1.25	EV+ 28% 5.00	EV+ 108% 10.00
Betsafe	1.36	EV+ 16% 4.55	EV+ 92% 9.20
Betsson	1.36	EV+ 16% 4.55	EV+ 92% 9.20
Nordicbet	1.36	EV+ 16% 4.55	EV+ 92% 9.20

Odds updated 19 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 15 August — the odds have shortened from 5.25 to 4.55 (−13%).

1+8 %

76 %66 %

1.26 → 1.36

X-13 %

24 %14 %

5.25 → 4.55

2-26 %

14 %4 %

12.50 → 9.20

Over 2,5+5 %

63 %53 %

1.62 → 1.70

Betsson · 18 recorded price levels · 15/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Charlton Athletic have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

West Ham United

Charlton Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

West Ham United (2–2)

Charlton Athletic (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

West Ham United

Charlton Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

West Ham United

Charlton Athletic

The goalkeepers	Mads Hermansen (West Ham United)	William John Mannion (Charlton Athletic)
Saves	2	3
Save %	50%	75%
xG prevented	17%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins West Ham United vs Charlton Athletic according to our model?

The model gives West Ham United a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: West Ham United 54%, draw 26%, Charlton Athletic 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.