01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Wolverhampton to win51%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
EFL ChampionshipMolineux, Wolverhampton17°5,7 mm17 km/h
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WolverhamptonPossession controlvs
Stoke CityLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Wolverhampton (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Stoke City @ 6.18 (+41 %)
Wolverhampton – Stoke City · EFL Championship
1 · Wolverhampton 51%X 26%23% Stoke City · 2
51%
26%
23%
Analysis: Wolverhampton – Stoke City
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Six straight losses cast a long shadow over Stoke City's visit to Wolverhampton, and that streak tells a stark story about the visitors' current plight. Such a sequence is a clear reflection of their struggles, both in form and underlying metrics. When we shift focus to the limited head-to-head sample from this season, it holds less sway than the obvious narrative of Stoke's downward spiral.
Wolverhampton, meanwhile, not only have the form edge but also control the narrative on both ends of the pitch. They average 1.9 expected goals per match while conceding only 0.74, compared to Stoke's meager 0.71 xG and porous 1.6 xGA. The numbers suggest a defensive solidity from the hosts, contrasting sharply with Stoke’s leaky backline. The most probable results, 1-1 and 1-0, underscore the likelihood of a low-scoring affair with Wolverhampton having the upper hand.
The playing styles add another layer to the analysis. Wolverhampton's possession-based approach should dominate against Stoke's low block and direct counterattacks. The visitors will likely struggle to make their direct play count against a well-organized Wolves side, particularly given their offensive inefficiency. The model gives Wolverhampton a 51% chance to win, aligning with the expectation of them asserting control.
Given Stoke's dismal run and the host's defensive stability, a narrow scoreline such as 1-1 or 1-0 for Wolverhampton appears the most plausible outcome. With over 2.5 goals sitting at just 46%, this match could easily fall under, reinforcing a lean towards a narrow win for the hosts.
WolverhamptonForm DW
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #9xP/match #2Points #4
Key players
- Fer LópezRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
- Raúl Alonso Jiménez RodríguezFxG 0.94 · xT 0.15
- Marshall MunetsiLWxG 0.24 · xT -0.02
Stoke CityForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #23xGA #14xT #8xP/match #23Points #22
Key players
- Sam GallagherFxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Jun Ho BaeRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
- Ethan Stuart William GalbraithFxG 0.07 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Wolverhampton – Stoke City
Predicted score matrix
Stoke City →
Wolverhampton →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–17.2%
0–23.6%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.2%
1–112.3%
1–25.7%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.0%
2–19.5%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.3%
3–15.0%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,58–0,95
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.10EV+12%
Over 2,546%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Wolverhampton to win51%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Marshall Nyasha Munetsi to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Marshall Nyasha Munetsi to score35%
- Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Stoke City23% probability@6.18PinnacleEV+41%reference odds
- X · Draw26% probability@4.40PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wolverhampton | X | 2 · Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | EV+ 15% 4.40 | EV+ 41% 6.18 |
Odds updated 26 Aug, 05:17
Odds movement
1+1 %
67 %62 %
1.47 → 1.49
X-2 %
23 %18 %
4.51 → 4.40
2-2 %
17 %12 %
6.32 → 6.18
Over 2,5+1 %
58 %53 %
1.72 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Stoke City have lost 6 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wolverhampton
Stoke City
Wolverhampton (5–3)
Stoke City (2–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wolverhampton
Stoke City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wolverhampton
Stoke City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wolverhampton | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 0 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 0.71 |
| xGA per match | 0.74 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Playing style | Wolverhampton | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.48 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 428 | 237 |
| Passes against per match | 324 | 374 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.7 | 19 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Wolverhampton | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.2 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.56 |
| Other | Wolverhampton | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Marshall Munetsi (Wolverhampton) | Viktor Johansson (Stoke City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 3 |
| Save % | 100% | 38% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 10% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wolverhampton vs Stoke City according to our model?
The model gives Wolverhampton a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolverhampton 51%, draw 26%, Stoke City 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.