EFL ChampionshipRacecourse Ground, Wrexham17°9,4 mm22 km/h

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    WrexhamWrexhamLow block & direct
    vs
    Birmingham CityBirmingham CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Birmingham City (38%)Soft draw

    Wrexham – Birmingham City · EFL Championship

    1 · Wrexham 35%X 27%38% Birmingham City · 2

    Analysis: Wrexham – Birmingham City

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Birmingham City's current unbeaten run in their last seven league matches sets the stage for their visit to Wrexham. Despite this impressive streak, the Welsh side's underlying numbers suggest a closer contest than the bookmakers' odds might imply. Wrexham, with their direct and low defensive profile, has managed to outstrip their visitors in several key metrics: expected goals, expected goals against, and expected points. Particularly telling is their ability to generate xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, a testament to their quick transition play that Birmingham might struggle to contain.

    On the flip side, Birmingham's counter-attack and crossing game could be dulled by the expected rain, potentially neutralizing their aerial threats. The model leans slightly towards the visitors at 38%, but with odds sitting at 2.9 (Betsafe, Betsson, Nordicbet), there's a 9% value edge in backing them — a rare find for the risk-tolerant bettor.

    In terms of scoreline, the numbers point towards a tight affair, with 1-1 being the most likely outcome at 13%, followed by slender victories either way. Wrexham's slight edge in expected goals at 1.24 versus Birmingham's 1.19 underlines the anticipated tightness of this clash. Given the projected weather conditions, goal opportunities might be limited, reinforcing the model's conservative 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood of both teams scoring.

    Ultimately, while Birmingham's unbeaten run garners attention, Wrexham's home advantage and sharper xG metrics can't be ignored. A 1-1 result seems the most plausible, aligned with the model's expectations. For those seeking value, the away win at 2.9 offers a tangible edge, provided you're willing to side with a team that mixes form with favorable odds.

    WrexhamWrexham
    Form WLDDD
    League ranking xG #14xGA #3xT #6xP/match #6Points #13
    Key players
    • Kieffer MooreFxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
    • Lewis ObrienCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
    • Callum DoyleCBxG 0.34 · xT 0.14
    Birmingham CityBirmingham City
    Form WWDDD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #11xP/match #13Points #16
    Key players
    • Alexander William CochraneLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.44
    • Jhon SolísCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
    • Christoph KlarerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

    Match prediction: Wrexham – Birmingham City

    Predicted score matrix

    Birmingham City →
    Wrexham →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.3%
    0–110.1%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–010.6%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.0%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,24–1,19
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    @1.83EV+3%
    Over 2,544%
    @1.99

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Birmingham City or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Birmingham City or draw (X2)63%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Marvin Ducksch to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score28%
    • Thomas Glyn Doyle to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Birmingham City38% probability@2.98PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • 2 · Birmingham City38% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Birmingham City38% probability@2.90BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · WrexhamX2 · Birmingham City
    Betsafe2.423.30
    EV+ 9%
    2.90
    Betsson2.423.30
    EV+ 9%
    2.90
    Nordicbet2.423.30
    EV+ 9%
    2.90
    Pinnacle2.413.30
    EV+ 12%
    2.98

    Odds updated 26 Aug, 07:36

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    41 %36 %

    2.46 → 2.41

    X+2 %
    32 %27 %

    3.24 → 3.30

    2+1 %
    34 %29 %

    2.96 → 2.98

    Over 2,50 %
    50 %45 %

    2.00 → 1.99

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Wrexham 0Draw 1Birmingham City 1
    Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Birmingham City are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wrexham
    Birmingham City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wrexham (2–2)
    Birmingham City (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wrexham
    Lewis Obrien: 91 passningar, xT -0.01ObrienCallum Doyle: 77 passningar, xT 0.19DoyleZak Vyner: 70 passningar, xT 0.5VynerGeorge Andrew Thomason: 62 passningar, xT 0.17ThomasonBenjamin Whiteman: 54 passningar, xT 0.04WhitemanDominic Hyam: 51 passningar, xT 0.04HyamAnthony Patterson: 42 passningar, xT 0.22PattersonNathan Paul Broadhead: 35 passningar, xT 0.28BroadheadOliver Michael Rathbone: 33 passningar, xT 0.35RathboneMatthew Lee James: 29 passningar, xT 0.06JamesDaniel Edward Peter Imray: 21 passningar, xT 0.41Imray
    Birmingham City
    Jhon Solís: 85 passningar, xT 0.07SolísChristoph Klarer: 78 passningar, xT 0.26KlarerTomoki Iwata: 76 passningar, xT 0.08IwataAlexander William Cochrane: 76 passningar, xT 0.88CochranePhil Yannik Neumann: 70 passningar, xT 0.13NeumannBright Osayi-Samuel: 57 passningar, xT 0.06Osayi-SamuelSeung-Ho Paik: 47 passningar, xT 0.1PaikCarlos Vicente Robles: 35 passningar, xT 0.07RoblesJames Beadle: 26 passningar, xT 0.08BeadleDemarai Ramelle Gray: 25 passningar, xT -0.1GrayJay Stansfield: 21 passningar, xT 0.14Stansfield
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wrexham
    Lewis Obrien: 91 passningar, xT -0.01ObrienCallum Doyle: 77 passningar, xT 0.19DoyleZak Vyner: 70 passningar, xT 0.5VynerGeorge Andrew Thomason: 62 passningar, xT 0.17ThomasonBenjamin Whiteman: 54 passningar, xT 0.04WhitemanDominic Hyam: 51 passningar, xT 0.04HyamAnthony Patterson: 42 passningar, xT 0.22PattersonNathan Paul Broadhead: 35 passningar, xT 0.28BroadheadOliver Michael Rathbone: 33 passningar, xT 0.35RathboneMatthew Lee James: 29 passningar, xT 0.06JamesDaniel Edward Peter Imray: 21 passningar, xT 0.41Imray
    Birmingham City
    Jhon Solís: 85 passningar, xT 0.07SolísChristoph Klarer: 78 passningar, xT 0.26KlarerTomoki Iwata: 76 passningar, xT 0.08IwataAlexander William Cochrane: 76 passningar, xT 0.88CochranePhil Yannik Neumann: 70 passningar, xT 0.13NeumannBright Osayi-Samuel: 57 passningar, xT 0.06Osayi-SamuelSeung-Ho Paik: 47 passningar, xT 0.1PaikCarlos Vicente Robles: 35 passningar, xT 0.07RoblesJames Beadle: 26 passningar, xT 0.08BeadleDemarai Ramelle Gray: 25 passningar, xT -0.1GrayJay Stansfield: 21 passningar, xT 0.14Stansfield

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWrexhamBirmingham City
    Points22
    xPoints3.52.6
    xG per match1.31.1
    xGA per match0.760.98
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.16
    Playing styleWrexhamBirmingham City
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.430.62
    xT per match1.31.1
    xTA per match0.940.99
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.260.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.51
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.55
    Entries into the box per match1612
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.740.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.66
    Passes per match300316
    Passes against per match362182
    Switches of play per match18.122.4
    Long balls per match3231
    Set piecesWrexhamBirmingham City
    xG from free kicks0.020.17
    Corners per match9.37.5
    Corners against per match5.92.5
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.09
    First touch, offensive corners %0.260.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.6
    OtherWrexhamBirmingham City
    Throw-in control0.660.74
    The goalkeepersAnthony Patterson (Wrexham)James Beadle (Birmingham City)
    Saves75
    Save %78%71%
    xG prevented52%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wrexham vs Birmingham City according to our model?

    The model gives Birmingham City a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wrexham 35%, draw 27%, Birmingham City 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.