Wrexham vs Burnley: Prediction & Odds (9 Sept 2026)

EFL Championship9 September 2026Racecourse Ground, Wrexham14°3,5 mm27 km/h

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WrexhamPossession control

BurnleyBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Wrexham (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.63 (+1 %)

1 · Wrexham 45%X 28%27% Burnley · 2

45%

28%

27%

Analysis: Wrexham – Burnley

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Wrexham's edge in both points and expected goals paints a compelling picture ahead of their clash with Burnley. The numbers suggest a home advantage: Wrexham has a 45% chance of victory, noticeably stronger than Burnley's 27%. The model's lean toward the hosts aligns with their superior form in both actual and expected metrics. Their consistent scoring streak across eight matches reinforces this narrative, making them a formidable opponent at home.

Burnley, however, isn't to be dismissed lightly. Despite their lower points tally, they've demonstrated resilience by finding the net in nine consecutive matches. This scoring consistency ensures they pose a threat, even as they face a Wrexham side known for controlling possession. The expected goals (xG) tally—1.52 for the hosts versus Burnley's 1.21—indicates a slight offensive edge for Wrexham, although both are likely to have chances.

Weather conditions, with light rain anticipated, could play a role in dampening the attacking flair of both teams. Yet, the expected goals and both teams to score metrics remain relatively high. The forecasted 51% chance of over 2.5 goals suggests a cautious lean toward a moderately open game, despite the wet conditions.

In this tightly poised matchup, the most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 suggest a narrow Wrexham victory or a draw. The 12% probability of a 1-1 draw and Wrexham's 10% chance for a 1-0 win further underscore the likelihood of a close contest. For those seeking value in this fixture, the 1-1 draw stands out as an enticing prospect, considering the high chance of both teams finding the back of the net.

As Wrexham aims to capitalize on their better defensive record, look for them to edge this encounter with a slim 1-0 victory, keeping it under 2.5 goals—a potentially profitable narrative where the numbers align intriguingly.

Wrexham

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #1xT #6xP/match #5Points #15

Key players

Kieffer MooreFxG 0.27 · xT 0.06
Benjamin WhitemanCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
Matthew Lee JamesCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04

Burnley

Form WDLLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #23xT #10xP/match #19Points #23

Key players

Zian FlemmingFxG 0.93 · xT 0.04
Marcus EdwardsRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.28
Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Wrexham – Burnley

Predicted score matrix

Burnley →

Wrexham →

0–06.8%

0–17.5%

0–24.8%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.5%

1–112.3%

1–27.3%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.5%

2–19.1%

2–25.5%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.8%

3–14.6%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,52–1,21

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.02

Over 2,551%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Joshua Dean Windass to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Joshua Dean Windass to score30%
Benjamin David Sheaf to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw28% probability@3.63PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wrexham	X	2 · Burnley
Betsafe	2.08	3.45	3.45
Betsson	2.08	3.45	3.45
Nordicbet	2.08	3.45	3.45
Pinnacle	2.04	EV+ 1% 3.63	3.45

Odds updated 7 Sept, 05:35

Odds movement

1+6 %

50 %45 %

1.93 → 2.04

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.76 → 3.63

2-7 %

29 %24 %

3.70 → 3.45

Over 2,5+2 %

56 %51 %

1.76 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Wrexham have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Burnley have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wrexham

Burnley

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wrexham (6–4)

Burnley (5–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wrexham

Burnley

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wrexham

Burnley

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wrexham	Burnley
Points	5	2
xPoints	6.8	4.4
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	0.84	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.08	0.41

Playing style	Wrexham	Burnley
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.52	0.43
xT per match	1.1	0.99
xTA per match	0.83	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	30	15
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.73
Passes per match	366	387
Passes against per match	299	405
Switches of play per match	21.8	34.5
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Wrexham	Burnley
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	5.9	5
Corners against per match	4.7	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.54

Other	Wrexham	Burnley
Throw-in control	0.74	0.74

The goalkeepers	Anthony Patterson (Wrexham)	Max Weiß (Burnley)
Saves	8	7
Save %	67%	41%
xG prevented	35%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wrexham vs Burnley according to our model?

The model gives Wrexham a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wrexham 45%, draw 28%, Burnley 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.